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May Discussion


weatherwiz
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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

That describes 1999 (killed my freshly planted Reliant peach tree) and 2010 (killed new shoots of ash, oak and some maple, plus all the blossoms on our apple trees.)  Highly doubt it will happen this year, as the BN April is far different from April 2010 (+5) and early May '10 had 2 days at 81.  (Then 5/11 dawned at 22° - disastah!)  Yesterday's 69 was just about perfect, and the only green is on the willows, though buds have broken on hophornbeam and cherry, and red maple is in full flower.

Yeah, that's taking this year perhaps to a different level.  But, right on cue, my sugar maple ( whom I lovingly refer to as 'general Sherman,' ...a 300 year-old, 5' diameter trunked, fire-barked beast adjacent my property) buds all cracked just overnight - it's amazing... Swollen buds for a week, wasted no time --> flowers this morning - 82 F yesterday book-ended by a couple of nights in the low 50s is probably causal.  

Anyway, not sure how orchard trees are behaving ...s'pose I could scout the apples on the other side of town but ...heh, not really that interested either.  

Re the status of things -

It's actually still lag mild... we're 68 F here this hour under clean sun and zephyrs are not exactly signaling a hurried cold advection.  Thing is, the May sun is being under-evaluated ( imho ) by those ragging on warm weather spin doctors ...ha.. Just the same, the 500 mb anomaly is something on the order of a 70-year phenomenon and should not be taken lightly - funny squabble results. 

I think there is a hard freeze/headline potential at nights and if the wind dies off by day even if for a few moments... it'll be fake mild in nooks that are out of the breeze... I have been noticing the Euro at PSU's granular quick and dirty 24 hour intervals, and one can clearly see the sun's diurnal forcing on the air mass when using that step back coarser perspective - interesting.  The 00z runs, which are at the apex of the heating cycle, have been routinely 5 to 7C warmer at 850 mb at/amid the end of the week's big cold intrustion behind that vortex migration through SE Ontario... Contrasting, the 12z runs, which are at the cold nadir of said cycle, slip back by a goodly degrees ... It's like been varying -6C across most of NE at 00z runs, to -12C on the 12z cycles.  That variance is purely insolation.  That's in the model - it's not being noticed ...but, it does show that the sun isn't going to be denied, no matter how threatening the cold appeal is. If it is sunny, it will offset - matter of how much. 

 

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Do we wake up tomorrow to some flakes flying or a wet coating on mulch/rooftops tomorrow morning from here to @alex?

Some models are showing just enough of an upslope response on CAA late tonight with surface temps in the low 30s that there could be some -SHSN flying in NNE tomorrow morning.

Tonight... Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. A chance of snow showers after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

gfs-deterministic-vt-t2m_f-8669200.thumb.png.3d0616ce385ef7fb49a0156704dd6a0c.png

gfs-deterministic-vt-snow_24hr-8712400.thumb.png.33ed25fd3bcf9cf6a8e6091985513716.png

 

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, that's taking this year perhaps to a different level.  But, right on cue, my sugar maple ( whom I lovingly refer to as 'general Sherman,' ...a 300 year-old, 5' diameter trunked, fire-barked beast adjacent my property) buds all cracked just overnight - it's amazing... Swollen buds for a week, wasted no time --> flowers this morning - 82 F yesterday book-ended by a couple of nights in the low 50s is probably causal.  

Anyway, not sure how orchard trees are behaving ...s'pose I could scout the apples on the other side of town but ...heh, not really that interested either.  

Re the status of things -

It's actually still lag mild... we're 68 F here this hour under clean sun and zephyrs are not exactly signaling a hurried cold advection.  Thing is, the May sun is being under-evaluated ( imho ) by those ragging on warm weather spin doctors ...ha.. Just the same, the 500 mb anomaly is something on the order of a 70-year phenomenon and should not be taken lightly - funny squabble results. 

I think there is a hard freeze/headline potential at nights and if the wind dies off by day even if for a few moments... it'll be fake mild in nooks that are out of the breeze... I have been noticing the Euro at PSU's granular quick and dirty 24 hour intervals, and one can clearly see the sun's diurnal forcing on the air mass when using that step back coarser perspective - interesting.  The 00z runs, which are at the apex of the heating cycle, have been routinely 5 to 7C warmer at 850 mb at/amid the end of the week's big cold intrustion behind that vortex migration through SE Ontario... Contrasting, the 12z runs, which are at the cold nadir of said cycle, slip back by a goodly degrees ... It's like been varying -6C across most of NE at 00z runs, to -12C on the 12z cycles.  That variance is purely insolation.  That's in the model - it's not being noticed ...but, it does show that the sun isn't going to be denied, no matter how threatening the cold appeal is. If it is sunny, it will offset - matter of how much. 

 

Shorts 

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1 minute ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

Another MOS bust here...up to 71. Actually a degree warmer than yesterday's high. Might have to enjoy lunch outside before temps drop this afternoon.

Classic post-FROPA downslope dandy where the airmass lags the wind change.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Classic post-FROPA downslope dandy where the airmass lags the wind change.

Yeah, winds went NW up here 11 hours ago but it's just now starting to drop.  Down to 48F.  Stayed pretty mild last night.

Jealous of you guys with another day of A+ weather.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, winds went NW up here 11 hours ago but it's just now starting to drop.  Down to 48F.  Stayed pretty mild last night.

Jealous of you guys with another day of A+ weather.

Yeah my son is outside in shorts and tshirt right now....awesome.

Probably our last above-normal high temp day until at least 5/15 or so.

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23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, winds went NW up here 11 hours ago but it's just now starting to drop.  Down to 48F.  Stayed pretty mild last night.

Jealous of you guys with another day of A+ weather.

 

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah my son is outside in shorts and tshirt right now....awesome.

Probably our last above-normal high temp day until at least 5/15 or so.

It was beautiful when I got up at 6:45.  Opened the windows and doors.  Closed stuff down by 10:30 or so and the clouds moved in and the temp dropped.  What a tease this weekend was :(

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

 

It was beautiful when I got up at 6:45.  Opened the windows and doors.  Closed stuff down by 10:30 or so and the clouds moved in and the temp dropped.  What a tease this weekend was :(

Chilly upslope rain showers now... that small droplet sheet rain as showers move through.

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