ORH_wxman Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Late Spring warmth continues. The PV is a bust if it doesn’t get down into the teens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 2 hours ago, tamarack said: That describes 1999 (killed my freshly planted Reliant peach tree) and 2010 (killed new shoots of ash, oak and some maple, plus all the blossoms on our apple trees.) Highly doubt it will happen this year, as the BN April is far different from April 2010 (+5) and early May '10 had 2 days at 81. (Then 5/11 dawned at 22° - disastah!) Yesterday's 69 was just about perfect, and the only green is on the willows, though buds have broken on hophornbeam and cherry, and red maple is in full flower. Yeah, that's taking this year perhaps to a different level. But, right on cue, my sugar maple ( whom I lovingly refer to as 'general Sherman,' ...a 300 year-old, 5' diameter trunked, fire-barked beast adjacent my property) buds all cracked just overnight - it's amazing... Swollen buds for a week, wasted no time --> flowers this morning - 82 F yesterday book-ended by a couple of nights in the low 50s is probably causal. Anyway, not sure how orchard trees are behaving ...s'pose I could scout the apples on the other side of town but ...heh, not really that interested either. Re the status of things - It's actually still lag mild... we're 68 F here this hour under clean sun and zephyrs are not exactly signaling a hurried cold advection. Thing is, the May sun is being under-evaluated ( imho ) by those ragging on warm weather spin doctors ...ha.. Just the same, the 500 mb anomaly is something on the order of a 70-year phenomenon and should not be taken lightly - funny squabble results. I think there is a hard freeze/headline potential at nights and if the wind dies off by day even if for a few moments... it'll be fake mild in nooks that are out of the breeze... I have been noticing the Euro at PSU's granular quick and dirty 24 hour intervals, and one can clearly see the sun's diurnal forcing on the air mass when using that step back coarser perspective - interesting. The 00z runs, which are at the apex of the heating cycle, have been routinely 5 to 7C warmer at 850 mb at/amid the end of the week's big cold intrustion behind that vortex migration through SE Ontario... Contrasting, the 12z runs, which are at the cold nadir of said cycle, slip back by a goodly degrees ... It's like been varying -6C across most of NE at 00z runs, to -12C on the 12z cycles. That variance is purely insolation. That's in the model - it's not being noticed ...but, it does show that the sun isn't going to be denied, no matter how threatening the cold appeal is. If it is sunny, it will offset - matter of how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: White legs cant tell where the socks begin? Sure , just look to see where the hair is gone on the older guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Do we wake up tomorrow to some flakes flying or a wet coating on mulch/rooftops tomorrow morning from here to @alex? Some models are showing just enough of an upslope response on CAA late tonight with surface temps in the low 30s that there could be some -SHSN flying in NNE tomorrow morning. Tonight... Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. A chance of snow showers after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, that's taking this year perhaps to a different level. But, right on cue, my sugar maple ( whom I lovingly refer to as 'general Sherman,' ...a 300 year-old, 5' diameter trunked, fire-barked beast adjacent my property) buds all cracked just overnight - it's amazing... Swollen buds for a week, wasted no time --> flowers this morning - 82 F yesterday book-ended by a couple of nights in the low 50s is probably causal. Anyway, not sure how orchard trees are behaving ...s'pose I could scout the apples on the other side of town but ...heh, not really that interested either. Re the status of things - It's actually still lag mild... we're 68 F here this hour under clean sun and zephyrs are not exactly signaling a hurried cold advection. Thing is, the May sun is being under-evaluated ( imho ) by those ragging on warm weather spin doctors ...ha.. Just the same, the 500 mb anomaly is something on the order of a 70-year phenomenon and should not be taken lightly - funny squabble results. I think there is a hard freeze/headline potential at nights and if the wind dies off by day even if for a few moments... it'll be fake mild in nooks that are out of the breeze... I have been noticing the Euro at PSU's granular quick and dirty 24 hour intervals, and one can clearly see the sun's diurnal forcing on the air mass when using that step back coarser perspective - interesting. The 00z runs, which are at the apex of the heating cycle, have been routinely 5 to 7C warmer at 850 mb at/amid the end of the week's big cold intrustion behind that vortex migration through SE Ontario... Contrasting, the 12z runs, which are at the cold nadir of said cycle, slip back by a goodly degrees ... It's like been varying -6C across most of NE at 00z runs, to -12C on the 12z cycles. That variance is purely insolation. That's in the model - it's not being noticed ...but, it does show that the sun isn't going to be denied, no matter how threatening the cold appeal is. If it is sunny, it will offset - matter of how much. Shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Congrats ACK on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Congrats Jimmy and ackwaves on the NAM? lol nija'd by Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Congrats Jimmy and ackwaves on the NAM? lol nija'd by Scooter LOL, I was wondering if it was some sort of weenie output, but the sounding is dam cold. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 That would be crazy for the cape this time and of year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Another MOS bust here...up to 71. Actually a degree warmer than yesterday's high. Might have to enjoy lunch outside before temps drop this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: Another MOS bust here...up to 71. Actually a degree warmer than yesterday's high. Might have to enjoy lunch outside before temps drop this afternoon. Classic post-FROPA downslope dandy where the airmass lags the wind change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Classic post-FROPA downslope dandy where the airmass lags the wind change. Yeah, winds went NW up here 11 hours ago but it's just now starting to drop. Down to 48F. Stayed pretty mild last night. Jealous of you guys with another day of A+ weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah, winds went NW up here 11 hours ago but it's just now starting to drop. Down to 48F. Stayed pretty mild last night. Jealous of you guys with another day of A+ weather. Yeah my son is outside in shorts and tshirt right now....awesome. Probably our last above-normal high temp day until at least 5/15 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 3rd day in a row of 70+. What a flip from a week ago. Like 15-20F flip in departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah, winds went NW up here 11 hours ago but it's just now starting to drop. Down to 48F. Stayed pretty mild last night. Jealous of you guys with another day of A+ weather. 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah my son is outside in shorts and tshirt right now....awesome. Probably our last above-normal high temp day until at least 5/15 or so. It was beautiful when I got up at 6:45. Opened the windows and doors. Closed stuff down by 10:30 or so and the clouds moved in and the temp dropped. What a tease this weekend was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Lava Rock said: Enjoyed a mouthful out on the bike. They are out in force. Black flies are very hungry, Got bit up good the last 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 hour ago, klw said: Sure , just look to see where the hair is gone on the older guys. Kevin shaved his legs to match his head? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My goodness another A+ start. 74 for a high. I was not expecting rain last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I could see that by end of next week. Would be funny if our highest AN departures were in the first week of May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 the cold coalition is suffering mightily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 People talking about warmth weather return sometime around 5/15 - not happening folks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, dryslot said: Black flies are very hungry, Got bit up good the last 2 days. They suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 hour ago, mreaves said: It was beautiful when I got up at 6:45. Opened the windows and doors. Closed stuff down by 10:30 or so and the clouds moved in and the temp dropped. What a tease this weekend was Chilly upslope rain showers now... that small droplet sheet rain as showers move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 40 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: the cold coalition is suffering mightily This is like the equivalent of a good cold snap in an otherwise torch winter....only in reverse. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 4, 2020 Author Share Posted May 4, 2020 Saturday has the look of convective showers with grauple/snow mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 He says nothing to see here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: He says nothing to see here?? Looks like that was with precip and onshore flow. If we had that, we would struggle for 40. This airmass is like 5SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Not to mention breaking many records for things like thickness, 850 temps etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 We actually had sleet and paws on 5/12/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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