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May Discussion


weatherwiz
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No cold anywhere. Just late Spring 522 thicknesses.

Unbelievable. The euro run is just ridiculous looking. 

Glad ive been outside most of today enjoying it. Not gonna be back for a long time. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Unbelievable. The euro run is just ridiculous looking. 

Glad ive been outside most of today enjoying it. Not gonna be back for a long time. 

522 thickness mid day Saturday over us.   Awful Mother’s Day weekend.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think models had too much cloud cover too. Clouds were moving out by 8a today. 

There were quite a few clouds here.  Clouds/sun until about 1:30, then to almost full sun now.

56 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

My son christened the pool. He's hypothermic nowcd0adadf6e5814cf5b69d7aa96823671.jpg

Just a little ballsy given the last month.

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Solid and classic spring MOS bust in the midst of 30 year climate brain having one end be low and the near end being high - maybe...

I could see that happening with the ECMWF/mid month flashing the other way rather abruptly...  I realize others were onto this earlier too but it also occurred to me on that bike ride ...it is not that uncommon to see a climate corrective departure occur within a month of extremity like that.   It'll be -5 for 10 straight days, then + 10 for 5 ... end up normal after 15 ... type of numerical layouts do have a precedence for extended duration balancing...  -20 for 4 days ... then +8 20 ... with + 1/3 for another month  shenanigans.

I could see us flipping with that -PNA that's shown up all at once in the extended over here in the GEFs...

Before that, I wouldn't be surprised if we clocked a snow event out of this thing.  I've seen snow in 6 different May's since 2000 under less impressive conditions. Past doesn't mean future and all that jazz but still - that's a sick look. 

Perhaps a month of extremes underway

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3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Shocking

(Opening up winter playbook, turning to page 6)

Its right where we want it.  Day 7 progs are never right so it’s good the models aren’t showing it.  

(Turns to page 8 in playbook)

Its a classic case of the models seeing a snowstorm at day 8-10 but losing it in the middle range.  Expect it to come back around 4 days out.

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23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

(Opening up winter playbook, turning to page 6)

Its right where we want it.  Day 7 progs are never right so it’s good the models aren’t showing it.  

(Turns to page 8 in playbook)

Its a classic case of the models seeing a snowstorm at day 8-10 but losing it in the middle range.  Expect it to come back around 4 days out.

Lol this is classic. 

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we have only swollen buds in the overriding canopy species here in Ayer, but we are in a radiative/climo cooled valley and it's been uniquely cool this last month - ha.

May 3rd is the latest since I've lived here that we hadn't seen sugar maples ( at least ..) in sweet fragrant bloom.  What's likely to happen here is yesterday, last nights balm, today's relative heat, tonight's balm and tomorrows ... 68 -ish will be enough to trigger a green flash but ... ooph, you almost want/need these progs to really bust then because this is a nightmare perfect failure set up for apple/pear orchard industries.  Lagged spring signal, sudden spring signal... foliage triggers with abandon, followed by acute cold attack?  interesting -

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