Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Yeah that warmer interval's been showing up in the operational blend for quite awhile. It'll be 'home grown' heat though ... no SW release sourcing. There is a pretty consistently defined shear axis/weakly closed mid level feature along the Front Range region of the American west and it's blocking any thermal expulsion from taking place. Meanwhile, we still can laze the lower trop with days of near solstice insolation form the MV on east/NE... That'll be our source region for this... Kind of a low grade heat wave/risk. Maybe a 87 to 92er. The EPS seems to respect/orient the flow more discerned around a +NAO with a neutral PNAP ... though it too has the shear axis in the west preventative. But the GFS operational ...as is hugely always the case by the way, ablates and rasps heat and ridging at any excuse imaginable, so it dulls the construct to nuances that look offsetting. I'd probably go with the EPS over this Trump consortium modeled version that is intended to hide global warming...haha. I wonder what happens after that? I could almost see us getting this intro into summer heat bulge. Seems that happens a lot.. Summer heralds in with an early dome, then, the flow sort or relaxes into something less for the remainder of summer(s). In this case, I wonder if we end up with a fast flow NW summer ... heat always being shunted SW making the GFS look right for the wrong reasons 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 76/25 We torch. We nosebleed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 76/36°F, Lock this for the summer.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Took until yesterday to reach 70 and now we've hit 80. Perfect setup for NNE heat - west winds so low humidity (20%) and leaves only half developed, thus little shade or transpirational cooling. Barely anything beyond sticks in northern Maine. 43 years ago tomorrow, CAR tied its all time hottest with 96, followed the next 2 days with 95 and 94, their hottest 3 day stretch on record. (Of course, I chose to add insulation to the attic of our tiny 2-story that 96 day. Fortunately I was done by 11:30 AM while the attic hadn't yet passed 140 [estimate only, but it was wicked hot].) Edit: That 80 is up from this morning's 35, nice range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 78° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 78.3/23 13% Pretty rare for me to run this dry. AFN 75/24 EEN 75/14 10%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 coc length extended through later next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: 78.3/23 13% Pretty rare for me to run this dry. AFN 75/24 EEN 75/14 10%! Holy shit. Are you getting 13% in your backyard, not at a field siting ASOS? And 75/14 is unheard of around there. That’s a cold rain wet bulb, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 90 and humid next Thursday/ Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 90 and humid next Thursday/ Friday Humid up here today with dews above freezing when compared with the sub-freezing dews in CNE/SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Humid up here today with dews above freezing when compared with the sub-freezing dews in CNE/SNE. PWS near me is 76/29 right now....18% RH, lol. And this neighborhood is basically in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: PWS near me is 76/29 right now....18% RH, lol. And this neighborhood is basically in the woods. Yeah that's why I was taken aback by Dendrites obs... under 20% is unheard of in New England for PWS with trees within like 200 feet lol. For ASOS', North Adams/AQW has a good one... 75/22 for 14%. They've also done 40F diurnal swing so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 39 minutes ago, dendrite said: 78.3/23 13% Pretty rare for me to run this dry. AFN 75/24 EEN 75/14 10%! 79/36 21% at KLEB at the 1:53 reading. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLEB.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 At 2 PM, IZG and all 6 hourly reporting (by GYX) stations from 3B1 to FVE have RH in the upper teens. Breezy too with red flag warnings, though the evergreen stands and north slopes in NW Maine still have significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 1 minute ago, tamarack said: At 2 PM, IZG and all 6 hourly reporting (by GYX) stations from 3B1 to FVE have RH in the upper teens. Breezy too with red flag warnings, though the evergreen stands and north slopes in NW Maine still have significant snow. This weather is taking care of the snow pretty efficiently. 2,800ft in Bolton, VT... will probably be snow free in the next two days as that melt level continues to work up the slopes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 GGEM with 20C at 850s over SNE next Thursday - ...figures, waits 'till I explain how the heat looks like 88 to 91 variety then it puts up a 96er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Garden is in. Soil was bone dry. We water and hope the Euro and GFS are right with some water Saturday. Back to COC after that. Scooters heat wave modified this Euro run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 81.2, a beaut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Holy shit. Are you getting 13% in your backyard, not at a field siting ASOS? And 75/14 is unheard of around there. That’s a cold rain wet bulb, ha. 12% min here 81/23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 KLEB with 84/29 and 13% at 15:53 https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLEB.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, klw said: KLEB with 84/29 and 13% at 15:53 https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLEB.html Fairly dry up here too. 12% at KMPV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 At 4 PM, MHT 82/19 and CON 81/18, both with RH 9%. Bloody nose wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Hitting mid-80s with dews in the 20s is hard to do. Edit: Hitting 80s with dews in the teens is even harder lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 MEX is between 9 and 12 over climo tho, for D7/8 on a product that's heavily climate-weighted at that range, @ most MOS sites later next week under a west wind and 850s that are typically cooler than verification at this time range as it is. And being already at 15 to 16C, yeah along ... with 588 height rim N of the region I think we can start planning on 90 F, at minimum, for a day quite plausibly the season's first heat wave. Mansfield CT would get get lit up with heat on 240 deg wind and that synoptic circulation. This isn't saying much for DPs ...not sure, but by then green up will be doing it's part and there's enough soil moisture around that we're playing with it given that synoptic look. Now, is that a declaration? No...but those products never show the potential in at this time of year - ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Were there any record lows this morning at any of the Mass ASOS sites? Saw TAN got down to 30 and MVY down to 27!!! What an amazing radiational cooling spot there, MVY must be some kind of record with a 27? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Garden is in. Soil was bone dry. We water and hope the Euro and GFS are right with some water Saturday. Back to COC after that. Scooters heat wave modified this Euro run 85-92 look regionwide on the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hitting mid-80s with dews in the 20s is hard to do. Edit: Hitting 80s with dews in the teens is even harder lol. I think I get where you are heading with this ... per our geography, latitude.... etc...we need the DPs to keep the night-time low higher, such that there's the higher launch pad?? Wet air takes more heat a to raise a unit-degree. It depends on the kinetics of free air vs free air plus water vapor. The former can heat actually more proficiently if it is kinetically charged - thus stowing thermal momentum, such that when the sun rises it will heat faster than wet air at the same initial temperature. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 High of 72. Sitting at:64F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think I get where you are heading with this ... per our geography, latitude.... etc...we need the DPs to keep the night-time low higher, such that there's the higher launch pad?? Wet air takes more heat a to raise a unit-degree. It depends on the kinetics of free air vs free air plus water vapor. The former can heat actually more proficiently if it is kinetically charged - thus stowing thermal momentum, such that when the sun rises it will heat faster than wet air at the same initial temperature. Just sayin' Yeah that’s one way to put it. Like to get to 80-85F we usually start the day higher than frost levels. Mostly though we just aren’t in that arid climate zone where you get air masses with that little moisture in it at those temperatures. I wonder what the PWATS are relative to normal. We get the winter dry air but it just seems like 80 over teens is pretty extreme for our general climate zone. This is the time of year to do it though. Gotta figure being early the air masses aren’t modifying as much from the lack of evapotranspiration to our NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 What a day, what a day. Congrats everyone who took advantage of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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