May Discussion

[weatherwiz]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To be fair, I am concerned about doors. However, the warmth will tickle i think.  Overall pretty good weather for riding around in your Jeep or your benzos...or on your Nissan sitting on Lorenzo’s.

Key is going to be the position of those below-average heights just southeast of Greenland. Well position and strength. As advertised, they might be just far enough northeast to spare us...although NNE would be at risk. Anyways though, this is a pretty solid look for what could be some active periods of severe weather across the Ohio Valley.

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To be fair, I am concerned about doors. However, the warmth will tickle i think.  Overall pretty good weather for riding around in your Jeep or your benzos...or on your Nissan sitting on Lorenzo’s.

ACATT they gone 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

D11 with 50s lurking in Maine doesn’t give me a nice feeling...at least not up here. 

I hope that late season snowcover doesn't push the backdoors down here.  But at least we can think about planting next week.  I always like to sneak in an early cucumber, tomato and bit of corn.  Might try that early next week and cover them if needed.  Black plastic already down in some of the beds to heat up the soil.  It was good to read the optimism for possibly AN next week in the GYX discussion.

[Ginx snewx]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To be fair, I am concerned about doors. However, the warmth will tickle i think.  Overall pretty good weather for riding around in your Jeep or your benzos...or on your Nissan sitting on Lorenzo’s.

Looks pretty much normal? I mean averages are at 60 now. Kevin touting like its gonna be 85/68 . Kevin gone wild

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I hope that late season snowcover doesn't push the backdoors down here.  But at least we can think about planting next week.  I always like to sneak in an early cucumber, tomato and bit of corn.  Might try that early next week and cover them if needed.  Black plastic already down in some of the beds to heat up the soil.  It was good to read the optimism for possibly AN next week in the GYX discussion.

I think this weekend I will plant a lot but not tomatoes.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

D11 with 50s lurking in Maine doesn’t give me a nice feeling...at least not up here. 

mm hm ... Weather aficionados falter in their craft if they do not consider the bumps and perturbations running along the interface between these flat/zonal flow ridge amplitudes, and the still vestigial tendency to buckle over Ontario.   ... powdered "invisible-to-the-models" backdoor front, just add picnics -

No one asked but ... this week was still just about transitioning away from that bombastic cold pattern into a more traditional transition season/climate expression for mid May ... (some extended hints now for more heat)  Also .. CC seems to mandate most days are +1.6 to +3 departure, which only get corrected more modestly positive by a raining day that insidiously skews the peril or the world, making the total months only seem more modestly doom-saying.  Heh.  Oh, the world is so preoccupied by the immediate "Great Cootie Meme of 2020," humanity has forgotten the real extinction signal:  the Earth cannot support this species, either way and countless will die. 

... enjoy your morning coffees grown and shipped, heated and enjoyed by means and method of profligate expenditure attributed carbon footprinting  - 

The 00z Euro and the EPS mean for that matter, both set stage and begin executing a Sonoran heat release toward the end of the run.  Noormaly ...day 10 is nothing more than sip-o-joe morning entertainment..  Buuut, that cluster nailed this presumptive pattern change this week ...timing and amplitude, and actually ..morphology of the super-synopsis from Hawaii to southern Greenland for that matter, going back to when it was day 10, too... So, it may be that it just sees things during present era so... hm -  A climo correction flip into heat was hinted on the previous run, too and it's merely more discerned here. Doesn't take a poet to see 90's before the end of the month when balanced against where we've been    

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually... the more I look at that EPS evolution D6 to 10 there is multi-faceted warm-season entertainment chances, ranging from late tornado season potential in the plains, to a heat expulsion.  Usually you don't get both those...  When bigger heat/EML's get boated out of the southwest, they are associated with CIN so wide-spread strafing super cellular rake events get suppressed, and what tends instead is toward those giant 80DBZ cannonball-sized hailer, isolated carbuncles on radar that look like they must be drilling for oil but are all 10 mile gated meso with overshooting domes to 70K ... MCS running around ridge rims too... Anyway, if a bigger tor event happens from the lognitudinal wave progression from D6/7 to 10, then it's more likely we have pedestrian early season warmth spreading up ahead... We could have early DP transport despite our green-up being somewhat belated -interesting.. 

But, here's the thing, the players are in favorable stage-block assignments for putting on an early heat show.  At D5-7, there is a lead roll-out ridge that should see the ambient boundary displaced up near the St Lawrence (~) with shallow BDs a potential ..granted, but... Those are not incursion cold/deep trough migrations as the longitudinal flow tendency is ( as noted yesterday ...) instructed by a neutralizing NAO so the flow wants to lift in latitude along the eastern seaboard.  But what all this evolution does ... is it sets the stage for if/when a heat expulsion from the SW gets ejected, it would then be naked to swath up in the circulation, and that's just what the D8-9-10 of the Euro operational/EPS mean is attempting to do... So, a big heat departure into the OV/Lower Lakes to NE actually has total roots in the predecessor ridge-roll out setting the stage, and then the second ridge roll-out has captured EML/850 mb super charged air then lidded and running up in the continental conveyor ...  

Little bit of synoptic anatomy lesson on SW heat releases

[OSUmetstud]

[Torch Tiger]

what a torch

[CoastalWx]

47 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Just don't fart, or you'll send a backdoor SW.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just don't fart, or you'll send a backdoor SW.

Lol, he turns his car on with the exhaust pipe facing southwest and we're in the 40s with sheet drizzle.

[weatherwiz]

Going to get active around here

[Typhoon Tip]

Whether some in here realize this or not ... they covet that and hope it happens ...anything to not have warm sun and the general joy and mirth sensation summer brings to the majority - 

lol...  you can include me in that group circa November 1 to March 15 ... 

I'm actually thinking the 'stretched' L/W appeal and the flatter total wave spacing may help stump that potential some.  A lot of BD mechanics requires a sharpening in S/W's as they are leaving that ~ 50/70 region, such that backside NVA curls with more strength ...piling the air up causing the +PP discontinuity and then that air "fills in" the gap on the eastern side of the cordillera...etc..etc... Then doing so over cold Labrador waters and eegh!   Anyway, the flatter deep layer limits ( a little ...) of that backside NVA curl, which then transmits less mass to the lower levels and the BDs end up with a less momentum.  

Not a total mitigation no but we'll see

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to get active around here

Nah... that's just the seasonality of a warmer, somewhat theta-e richer air mass reflected in the sounding; that will look generically like that until October 3rd when we start heading on back the other way. 

You know it's funny - half kidding here ... but there's some truth to it - I look at soundings over Kansas, OK....IA and wonder why that whole region of the country doesn't just spontaneously detonate into a massive mushroom cloud as though an asteroid impacted on any given day in early June...  Nadda.  just streets of harmless CU sitting blithely over 6,000 SB CAPE... 

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, he turns his car on with the exhaust pipe facing southwest and we're in the 40s with sheet drizzle.

Yeah. I mean part of spring climo are backdoors, but I get nervous with those troughs up there. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah... that's just the seasonality of a warmer, somewhat theta-e richer air mass reflected in the sounding; that will look generically like that until October 3rd when we start heading on back the other way. 

You know it's funny - half kidding here ... but there's some truth to it - I look at soundings over Kansas, OK....IA and wonder why that whole region of the country doesn't just spontaneously detonate into a massive mushroom cloud as though an asteroid impacted on any given day in early June...  Nadda.  just streets of harmless CU sitting blithely over 6,000 SB CAPE... 

I think about this alot too  

[Damage In Tolland]

Ryan with 80’s and dews next week. Cannot wait 

[dendrite]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan with 80’s and dews next week. Cannot wait 

We pray.

I have 4 pawpaw trees coming in next week. I want them in the ground ASAP.

[dryslot]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

D11 with 50s lurking in Maine doesn’t give me a nice feeling...at least not up here. 

Watch your BD.

[powderfreak]

Still not warm.

VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018-120100-
Orleans-Essex-Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Eastern Franklin-
Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Newport, Island Pond, Johnson, Stowe,
St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill,
Bristol, and Ripton
609 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020

...A period of heavy wet snowfall is expected this evening...

Surface observations and web cams show rain has changed to a heavy
wet snowfall across the western slopes into parts of central and
northern Vermont, mainly above 1000 feet. A quick dusting to 3
inches is possible, which will cause localized areas of slick
travel and the potential for a few isolated power outages,
especially across the higher elevations. The accumulating
snowfall should taper off by 9 PM this evening.

Flipped to wet snow at 750ft now.  Photo from above 1,500ft.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We pray.

I have 4 pawpaw trees coming in next week. I want them in the ground ASAP.

Dews up there too?

[powderfreak]

This is wild.  It is ripping huge wet flakes the size of saucers.

[Torch Tiger]

[dendrite]

Wish we lived at H85

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Heck yeah. Torch baby torch. 

We'll stay cooler at times, just hoping for active wx

[Damage In Tolland]

56 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Even ACATT leader can’t sell anything against that look. That is an inferno to Maine 

[brentrich]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Heck yeah. Torch baby torch. 

Thank god it's short lived, cool weather will be back in late May/early June

 

[brentrich]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Don’t mind me, I like summer warmth.  

I hate humidity and hot weather (90's - 100's)

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

For once, I stand with Dews. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

For once, I stand with Dews. 

As we age we ALL like dews