Hoosier Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 RC with a mention Next Tuesday and Wednesday, attention turns to the possibility of the remnants of a western or central Gulf coast landfalling tropical system affecting the area. It appears Tuesday could be warm/very warm and humid until any impacts. Much too far out for any specifics with the possible system itself, which could range from: tropical moisture getting involved for a heavy rain/flooding threat from showers and t-storms to extratropical phasing with an incoming long-wave trough for an unseasonably deep surface low that could add a strong wind component into the mix. Earlier cold front passage on Wednesday would bring an end to precip. threat quicker than depicted in official NDFD grids. Castro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Excellent point. A few of the past big wind makers from remnant systems were in September or October. Still have a lot of leaves on the trees then but being in June the leaves aren't even getting close to the point of dropping. Many model runs to go, but that Euro run would be a considerable impact event. And don't forget, cicadas will be caking the trees adding additional mass/surface area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: We don't see it very often with remnant systems in this part of the country but depending on how it evolves/phases, there could be a legit damaging wind threat with this thing. Ensembles certainly support the heavy rain threat. That Euro verbatim would also be a higher end tornado threat Tuesday evening ahead of the stronger SSW winds early Wed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 To put in perspective how freaky the 12z Euro would be, just look at this map of low pressure records for the month of June. Some of these records around the Lakes would be demolished. The 3 Gulf coast systems that come to mind that had a big wind impact around the Lakes/OV are the 1900 Galveston hurricane, the 1941 hurricane and Ike from 2008. A couple others that backed in from the east coast and hammered the eastern sub would be Hazel and Sandy. All of these were September or October systems. Several years ago I did extensive research on tropical remnant systems around the region and I cannot recall anything like what the Euro is advertising during a summer month. Maybe that would suggest leaning toward a tamer outcome at this distance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 59 minutes ago, Hoosier said: To put in perspective how freaky the 12z Euro would be, just look at this map of low pressure records for the month of June. Some of these records around the Lakes would be demolished. The 3 Gulf coast systems that come to mind that had a big wind impact around the Lakes/OV are the 1900 Galveston hurricane, the 1941 hurricane and Ike from 2008. A couple others that backed in from the east coast and hammered the eastern sub would be Hazel and Sandy. All of these were September or October systems. Several years ago I did extensive research on tropical remnant systems around the region and I cannot recall anything like what the Euro is advertising during a summer month. Maybe that would suggest leaning toward a tamer outcome at this distance. Hugo I believe also produced high winds in the region especially eastern lakes. None of the examples fit this time of year. Only thing that remotely comes to mind is Arlene in 2005. That did bring quite a bit of rain to the region but not winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Loving the early season mid range tropical threat, good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 The Euro has a little wet snow mixing in up at Bo's on June 12th lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 38 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The Euro has a little wet snow mixing in up at Bo's on June 12th lol. Yeah it has a heavy snowstorm breaking out in western Ontario on the back side of the remnants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 ECMWF has a good thunderstorm pattern for the western lakes next week now. EML with big CAPE looks pretty likely. It's just a matter of when/where favorable shear/forcing occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 19 hours ago, frostfern said: ECMWF has a good thunderstorm pattern for the western lakes next week now. EML with big CAPE looks pretty likely. It's just a matter of when/where favorable shear/forcing occurs. The Euro is now showing a very boring pattern as an upper low cuts off and parks over the eastern lakes. Today/tomorrow may be the only rain for the next ten days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: The Euro is now showing a very boring pattern as an upper low cuts off and parks over the eastern lakes. Today/tomorrow may be the only rain for the next ten days. I spoke too soon. One run looked more progressive, then it went back to the cutoff solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 It trends towards a death ridge when the trough finally moves out of the northeast. All the action will be in the northern plains unless an MCS can manage to dive down the east side of the ridge before it eats crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 I was hoping I was wrong. But the story of many parts of Ontario and SW Quebec will be drought. Isolated spots got a T-storm last week that just ran off of most surfaces. It is dry here. I can’t imagine what the current realities are in Ottawa and Montreal. There seems to be a fair chance of precipitation tomorrow or Thursday. After that...nothing. Summer hasn’t officially started yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: The Euro is now showing a very boring pattern as an upper low cuts off and parks over the eastern lakes. Today/tomorrow may be the only rain for the next ten days. As a plant pathologist who knows that there is an intimate relationship with fungal disease and weather - this summer is shaping to be a punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, Kitchener poster said: As a plant pathologist who knows that there is an intimate relationship with fungal disease and weather - this summer is shaping to be a punt. It seems like summers have been trending dryer in the Great Lakes which sucks if you like thunderstorms and don't like droughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, frostfern said: It seems like summers have been trending dryer in the Great Lakes which sucks if you like thunderstorms and don't like droughts. That's definitely not the case in the western lakes. Summers have been markedly wetter. Even in the eastern lakes precip trends seems fairly flat. MSN summer rainfall trends above for reference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 57 minutes ago, Kitchener poster said: I was hoping I was wrong. But the story of many parts of Ontario and SW Quebec will be drought. Isolated spots got a T-storm last week that just ran off of most surfaces. It is dry here. I can’t imagine what the current realities are in Ottawa and Montreal. There seems to be a fair chance of precipitation tomorrow or Thursday. After that...nothing. Summer hasn’t officially started yet. For Farmers, this current pattern isn't great. After a cold and dry spring, a dry summer would be terrible. But for anyone who enjoys the great outdoors including camping and BBQing or likes to spend time at their cottage, then its amazing! But because of Covid-19, people can't really do much so in many ways, this summer sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 1 hour ago, madwx said: That's definitely not the case in the western lakes. Summers have been markedly wetter. Even in the eastern lakes precip trends seems fairly flat. MSN summer rainfall trends above for reference Wisconsin has certainly been getting wetter. Big change once you get east of Lake Michigan. Maybe I should qualify and say the lake shadow effect has been getting worse. I'd like to see a graph of Michigan for July and August. MSN is already wetter by climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Without looking up the data, it doesn’t seem like it’s been dry around here. The early 2010s had some dryness(especially 2012) but it doesn’t seem like it’s been very dry the past several summers. Again, this is without looking up the actual data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 models keying in on the potential for a seasonably robust shortwave to rotate through the area saturday into sunday. As to be expected with a feature like this, models are highly variable from run to run but seems like an opportunity for some severe weather for someone. Biggest concern overall for me right now is the extent of destabilization that occurs given that cloud cover/junky convection look assured given lack of an EML. GFS overall has been the most "impressive" member of guidance which has had a stronger surface low and therefore a more organized low level response and backing of winds. Not a super impressive setup by any means even on the GFS, but when it's 2020, you grasp at straws. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 Quite the retrograding system on the GFS Also been hinting at a tropical system in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 lol, our climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 I thought we were headed for a good old fashioned heat wave for the 4th..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 That's something you don't see every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: That's something you don't see every day. Do you think the people in Saskatchewan are saying, " Look an Illinois screamer!". 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 17 hours ago, bowtie` said: Do you think the people in Saskatchewan are saying, " Look an Illinois screamer!". Illinois clipper-in-reverse-mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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