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Spring/Summer 2020 Medium & Long Range Discussion


Geoboy645
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IL river forecast  crest 27.9 here at PIA tomorrow morning before a slow fall starts (only .3 to .6 ft  day fall)....flood stage is 18ft...like last year I am worried about  more heavy rains falling upstream over the next week..last year had two crests (#5 and 11)  but we missed a couple of the big rains (got 2 out of the 4 but missed the middle ones))...any bad luck with training and/multiple hits will spell big trouble..

The 9/2/2008 event (#10) that almost happened with 3-5 inches expected just north..but outlflows pushed that more south into central IL sparing any more river rises here

 

 

 

Historic Crests
(1) 29.35 ft on 04/23/2013
(2) 28.80 ft on 05/23/1943
(3) 28.70 ft on 03/23/1979
(4) 28.40 ft on 03/07/1985
(5) 28.00 ft on 05/07/2019
(6) 27.94 ft on 03/14/2009
(7) 27.40 ft on 12/09/1982
(8) 27.10 ft on 03/23/1982
(9) 27.09 ft on 06/30/2015
(10) 27.06 ft on 09/20/2008

(11) 26.87 ft on 06/02/2019

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I hope the remnants of Cristobal can track northward enough to drop some good rain here.  It's too rare.  You guys farther east in the subforum get this kind of thing much more often.  The GFS brings it up across Iowa, but the Euro veers it east into the Ohio Valley/eastern Lakes.

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11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I hope the remnants of Cristobal can track northward enough to drop some good rain here.  It's too rare.  You guys farther east in the subforum get this kind of thing much more often.  The GFS brings it up across Iowa, but the Euro veers it east into the Ohio Valley/eastern Lakes.

you're welcome too it.

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22 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I hope the remnants of Cristobal can track northward enough to drop some good rain here.  It's too rare.  You guys farther east in the subforum get this kind of thing much more often.  The GFS brings it up across Iowa, but the Euro veers it east into the Ohio Valley/eastern Lakes.

Definitely true.  Frequency of remnant systems drops off as you get northwest of the Ohio Valley, and it's really rare as you get west of the Mississippi River north of I-80.

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I know you guys in Illinois have gotten walloped by rain systems this spring, but we haven't.  We could use a good soaker today.  A week from now, when Cristobal lifts through the central US, we will really need a soaker.

Yup. I've had duck families in my backyard pond each of the past 3 Mays. But, I don't have a pond.

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18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I know you guys in Illinois have gotten walloped by rain systems this spring, but we haven't.  We could use a good soaker today.  A week from now, when Cristobal lifts through the central US, we will really need a soaker.

yeah its strange, even though we had a wet May we are teetering on the edge here.  Some areas have flooded fields yet some areas already have cracks in the soil

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21 minutes ago, madwx said:

yeah its strange, even though we had a wet May we are teetering on the edge here.  Some areas have flooded fields yet some areas already have cracks in the soil

It is really weird. Over here we are probably good on rain for a little bit yet while over by La Crosse they are in Abnormally Dry already. If it weren't for the last 2 weeks or so we would be in the same boat, and we may very well be after tonight depending on where the edge of the ridge sets up. 

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It's easy to see who has been dumped on and who hasn't over the last month or two.  Chicago through Michigan has been bulls-eyed.  Many of the rest of of us, not so much.  There is certainly no drought, but some widespread MCS action from the plains into MN/IA would be nice. 

 

30dPNormMRCC.png60dPNormMRCC.png

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3 minutes ago, outflow said:

Not everyday do you see the gfs showing a 970mb low just north of lake superior in june...

I think the ingestion of Cristobal causes it to go a little crazy on that run.  Not that it wouldn't have been a deep system without that interaction.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think the ingestion of Cristobal causes it to go a little crazy on that run.  Not that it wouldn't have been a deep system without that interaction.

Covid, murder hornets,riots what the hell might as well throw in a november like bomb in june to the list of 2020 accomplishments.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

We don't see it very often with remnant systems in this part of the country but depending on how it evolves/phases, there could be a legit damaging wind threat with this thing.

And it woule be a very high impact event since this will be with trees in full leaf out vs the typical late season bare tree type event 

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9 minutes ago, outflow said:

And it woule be a very high impact event since this will be with trees in full leaf out vs the typical late season bare tree type event 

Excellent point.  A few of the past big wind makers from remnant systems were in September or October.  Still have a lot of leaves on the trees then but being in June the leaves aren't even getting close to the point of dropping.  

Many model runs to go, but that Euro run would be a considerable impact event. 

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