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Spring/Summer 2020 Medium & Long Range Discussion


Geoboy645
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33 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Oh... Sorry.

No need to apologize.  Generally speaking, I'm not going to shut down a thread unless it's a duplicate.  There is a purpose for a longer range thread like this to be able discuss what is coming in the weeks/months ahead.  It may just move more slowly than the winter medium/long range thread because of the different dynamics (not dynamics in the meteorological sense lol) involved between user interest in winter vs warm season things.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Models are all showing the cold pattern finally ending over the next few days.  Warmth moves in Thursday and stays for good.  The GFS has 80s here next week and the Euro is well into the 70s as well by late this week.  The pattern may also become pretty stormy.  The euro has 2-5" of rain across Iowa from day 4-7, extending eastward into the lakes as well.

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Models are all showing the cold pattern finally ending over the next few days.  Warmth moves in Thursday and stays for good.  The GFS has 80s here next week and the Euro is well into the 70s as well by late this week.  The pattern may also become pretty stormy.  The euro has 2-5" of rain across Iowa from day 4-7.

Let’s go! A humid evening watching the day fade away is long overdue
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15 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are all showing the cold pattern finally ending over the next few days.  Warmth moves in Thursday and stays for good.  The GFS has 80s here next week and the Euro is well into the 70s as well by late this week.  The pattern may also become pretty stormy.  The euro has 2-5" of rain across Iowa from day 4-7, extending eastward into the lakes as well.

Very excited for all of this.

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Low to mid 90s for central/southern MN on the Euro around day 10.  Most of the sub only makes it to the low to mid 80s though.

Still, I loathe these 30+ degree "flips" in high temps. Every spring seems to go this way as of late.  

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On a side note, we're seeing some pretty impressive sub-surface cooling across the ENSO regions which continue to make there way to the surface thanks to an eastward propagating oceanic Kelvin wave. Looks like another strong easterly wind burst is on the way and if this persists through-out the month and into June, it'll aide in the rapid development of a La Nina. If we transition into a La Nina much sooner rather than later, we could be looking at a warm summer across much of the region along with a potentially active hurricane season. Let's see! 

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While there will be significant warming into the weekend for our eastern members, models have shown a trend toward merging the subtropical system and the upper midwest system as they reach the mid-Atlantic region, where it parks for a while next week and cools the temp somewhat for our far eastern members.

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20 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro now has the cool pool from the eastern cutoff low dominating the subforum region through next week.  The 80s and humidity are gone, even for Iowa.  Now it's low 70s with 50s dews.

It is now getting to the time of the year that below climo is not a bad thing, as long as it's not 25° below climo!

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