nrgjeff Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 I like the raised probs for the Carolinas (Day 2 pm). Bama is so conditional and borderline veering off, but GA/SC parts of NC have the backed LLJ. That said I don't see 15% in the cards. CAMs have trended to MCS and/or linear. That does not mean let down one's guard. 10% hatched can include some beasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Confirmed large tornado on the ground -- Madill may have taken a direct impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Massive hook on radar on that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Four separate tornado warnings across Oklahoma right now. Pretty solid day for the lack of chatter it's getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Massive hook on radar on that storm Very decent rotation heading toward Stringtown as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Stout dew front along the tailend of that line on the OK/TX border, 25-30 degree drop in dews as it passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 MD on that SE TX supercell getting ready to move into LA... Mesoscale Discussion 445 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 0445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 135... Valid 222253Z - 222330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 135 continues. SUMMARY...SUMMARY Based on recent radar and environmental data, a strong to intense tornado with potential peak winds of 130 to 165 mph (EF2-EF3) is likely ongoing. DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION Recent radar signatures from KGRK as of 2250Z reveal an intense supercell characterized by a 0.5 degree rotational velocity of at least 70 kt. A tornadic debris signature has also been noted on recent radar scans. These signatures are occurring in an environment characterized by STP between 5 and 6. Previous signatures within similar environments produced tornado-damage-estimated wind speeds from 130 to 165 mph and confidence is high for a strong to intense tornado. A longer-track tornado is ongoing and may continue based on the rotational velocity duration and the storm moving within a favorable downstream environment. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/22/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Ongoing TDS on the TX cell (might be cows with it's location). This one and the one along the Red River could be long trackers as they both move east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Both of those storms confirmed TOR warned. TOR Emergency for Jasper TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Jasper cell is wide open, moving into areas with VTP numbers around 7-8 per meso. This thing could be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Seeing what happened today in TX, OK and LA makes me think we’re going to be in for a doozy today. Warm sector stayed fairly clear, and the flow into this deepening low should help aid any atmospheric recovery tomorrow. In addition the morning convection will more than likely put down boundaries for the afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Seeing what happened today in TX, OK and LA makes me think we’re going to be in for a doozy today. Warm sector stayed fairly clear, and the flow into this deepening low should help aid any atmospheric recovery tomorrow. In addition the morning convection will more than likely put down boundaries for the afternoon. The chances of the warm sector over the SE staying clear, are pretty slim. Most models have a MCS/QLCS wiping the warm sector out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 57 minutes ago, MUWX said: The chances of the warm sector over the SE staying clear, are pretty slim. Most models have a MCS/QLCS wiping the warm sector out. I know it's not exactly the SE but 25 filtered TOR reports late afternoon/evening Wed moving into Thurs. Take the model runs if you want, they didn't pick up on this many tornadic events on the 22nd. Still a pretty volatile environment overnight as the system moves east. There's still some pretty established updrafts in the warm sector across central/southern LA. Plenty of ingredients to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Pretty broad but strong circulation near Liberty MS. Baton Rouge has a powerful thunderstorm heading their way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 New Orleans Radar 4:02 AM Scan: Near Liberty MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 New Orleans Radar 4:06 AM Scan: 10 miles west of McComb MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Far from JAN radar, but a small circulation is also moving through Meridian MS right now. Hopefully nothing is down with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twistingtornado Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 436 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 MSC023-231000- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-200423T1000Z/ Clarke MS- 436 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN CLARKE COUNTY... At 436 AM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Goodwater, or 15 miles northwest of Waynesboro, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Clarke County, including the following locations... Shubuta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Yeah that blob of rain should be out of here by Noon. Georgia should be in the clear earlier than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Kinda odd here in central NC. Went from nothing to 10% hatched and back to nothing in less than a day. I certainly don't mind, hope it's a quieter day for everyone in the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 There's a lot of cloud cover on satellite - should hamper destabilization of the atmosphere. Kinda hoping it does, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 got to watch how far the warm sector can move NE form MS into western AL this morning cells developing over western MS at this time may be on the edge of the unstable air as morning heating starts in MS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnj79 Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 We had a Tornado Warning at 2:30 this morning in West Baton Rouge Parish. Pulled the radar up and my eyes popped out of my head. The hook echo passed directly over us. The clouds were insane. The amount of people who were oblivious to it is sickening! I just did some preaching on FB. EVERYONE needs a NOAA Weather Radio and everyone needs to stop silencing their phones at night... It could make the difference between life and death next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Just now, rnj79 said: We had a Tornado Warning at 2:30 this morning in West Baton Rouge Parish. pulled the radar up and my eyes popped out of my head. The hook echo passed directly over us. the clouds were insane. The amount of people who were oblivious to it is sickening! I just did some preaching on FB. EVERYONE needs a NOAA Weather Radio and everyone needs to stop silencing their phones at night... It could make the difference between life and death next time. Yeah, since we've been vacationing in HHH, we've enabled our alerts on the phones, even in Do Not Disturb mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Tiny hatched for today now...I’m guessing lack of instability killed chances pretty much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 I don’t know if I agree with the SPC and many on here. Probably will have egg on my face but Atlanta is already in the clear and it’s 11 AM. Looking at the mesoscale analysis there is a ton of CAPE starting to filter into MS/AL. Idk I just see this current MCS laying down an OFB for later on today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 44 minutes ago, rnj79 said: The amount of people who were oblivious to it is sickening! I just did some preaching on FB. EVERYONE needs a NOAA Weather Radio and everyone needs to stop silencing their phones at night... It could make the difference between life and death next time If the darned thing didn't go off at 0300 to tell me about the watch (not the warning, the watch that I knew was eventually coming by early the previous morning), or the coastal flood warning that doesn't affect me, etc. I'd be much happier. I still leave it on but I've been sorely tempted to go office space on it after the latest alerts for watches. Would be nice if it were more selective... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, nwohweather said: I don’t know if I agree with the SPC and many on here. Probably will have egg on my face but Atlanta is already in the clear and it’s 11 AM. Looking at the mesoscale analysis there is a ton of CAPE starting to filter into MS/AL. Idk I just see this current MCS laying down an OFB for later on today Wouldn’t the OFB be somewhere in the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now