weatherwiz Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 A vigorous piece of s/w energy and associated strong surface cold front moves through New England Tuesday afternoon. Rather cold mid-level temperatures (~-25C at 500mb) will help promote fairly steep mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7 C/KM). The nose of an 80+ knot MLJ streak will punch into the region during the afternoon. Combination of steep mid-level lapse rates, surface temperatures into the 50's and dewpoints into the 40's will yield a very weakly unstable airmass (perhaps 500 J/KG of CAPE). A strengthening low-level jet combined with strong forcing and weak instability may result in a few gusty t'storms with the potential for some small hail. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 Should add the greatest potential is probably across NY, northern PA and perhaps VT but maybe some stuff can sneak into W MA and W CT. Kinda depends on timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 20, 2020 Author Share Posted April 20, 2020 Looking pretty good tomorrow...actually looks like we'll see a pretty solid line of low topped convection with gusty winds and numerous reports of small hail. Hell, could even be a transition to a brief period of extremely heavy snow in the Berks...maybe drop a quick inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Wow. Looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 20, 2020 Author Share Posted April 20, 2020 It's a shame we can't muster up more instability. Winds should remain below severe criteria (though weakened trees/limbs may come down in places) but there could be quite a bit of small hail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's a shame we can't muster up more instability. Winds should remain below severe criteria (though weakened trees/limbs may come down in places) but there could be quite a bit of small hail. Even a little instability would go a long way. Nice looping hodographs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 20, 2020 Author Share Posted April 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Even a little instability would go a long way. Nice looping hodographs too. Looks like the main mode is linear which may scale back hail potential but I’m wondering if we could actually see some large hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Wondering if I'll flip to a quick burst of heavy snow up here. Should be fun to watch it unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like the main mode is linear which may scale back hail potential but I’m wondering if we could actually see some large hail? I think small hail is in the cards like you said above because nearly every ingredient for hailstone development is there except good CAPE. I don't see any chance of large hail although nothing wrong with wishful thinking I've been there before lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 20, 2020 Author Share Posted April 20, 2020 25 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: I think small hail is in the cards like you said above because nearly every ingredient for hailstone development is there except good CAPE. I don't see any chance of large hail although nothing wrong with wishful thinking I've been there before lol. yeah I doubt we see large hail...not enough CAPE and not even sure there is even enough moisture available. Oh well...can always wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Upgraded to slight risk Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 20, 2020 Author Share Posted April 20, 2020 17 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Upgraded to slight risk Wiz I was actually a bit surprised to see the upgrade to slight. I think we'll see some pretty strong wind gusts but not so sure we see defined severe winds...but then again our trees fall at 40 mph winds so. I also think there could be showers ahead of the main action which could hamper the severe threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 If this were February it'd be a nice snow squall look, no? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 33 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: If this were February it'd be a nice snow squall look, no? Who said it's not still a nice snow squall look? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 20, 2020 Author Share Posted April 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Who said it's not still a nice snow squall look? I could see a quick inch in parts of the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 58 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I could see a quick inch in parts of the Berks 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I was actually a bit surprised to see the upgrade to slight. I think we'll see some pretty strong wind gusts but not so sure we see defined severe winds...but then again our trees fall at 40 mph winds so. I also think there could be showers ahead of the main action which could hamper the severe threat I was surprised myself. HRRR is showing the strongest gust potential with a LLJ around 50kts that would presumably mix down to meet severe criteria, but yet it also has the steepest low level lapse rates which the other models aren't as steep. You can make a case for it. Although the other models aren't showing as strong of a gust potential, if they get some good low level WAA that could steepen lapse rates enough to mix down some of those stronger winds. We'll see, but not overly optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 3k NAM is almost snow squally after the initial burst is rain.. hmmm. I could envision heavy rain to a burst of heavy snow.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 3k NAM is almost snow squally after the initial burst is rain.. hmmm. I could envision heavy rain to a burst of heavy snow.. I would drive out to 2k becket for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 0z 3k NAM even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 0z 3k NAM even better I'd sell more than a few flakes in the valley. I'm more intrigued by the hail potential and perhaps some decent gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I'd sell more than a few flakes in the valley. I'm more intrigued by the hail potential and perhaps some decent gusts. Still pretty neat having a storm roll through that changes to snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Still pretty neat having a storm roll through that changes to snow.. Indeed! That's happened to me once, in april in the early 2000's. It started off as thunderstorms and temps in the 50's to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2020 Author Share Posted April 21, 2020 11 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: I was surprised myself. HRRR is showing the strongest gust potential with a LLJ around 50kts that would presumably mix down to meet severe criteria, but yet it also has the steepest low level lapse rates which the other models aren't as steep. You can make a case for it. Although the other models aren't showing as strong of a gust potential, if they get some good low level WAA that could steepen lapse rates enough to mix down some of those stronger winds. We'll see, but not overly optimistic. Agreed on your thoughts. I think it's going to get tough to advect in the steeper llvl lapse rates needed to ultimately yield severe gusts. I did notice that some forecast soundings did exhibit a bit of an inverted V signature but I also noticed potential for an inversion to develop...warm front at the sfc remains south and we get WAA aloft but strengthening llvl jet off the water will probably make some inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just had a brief shower with some small hail here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2020 Author Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: Just had a brief shower with some small hail here hail in Old Saybrook per my boss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: hail in Old Saybrook per my boss Damn its sunny and beautiful here with little wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 It's really too bad it's not May and 75-80 degrees. Would be in for something good. Hell......there's a decently timed front moving through this afternoon and the sun is out this morning! We almost always get porked by morning clouds/convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Round 2 of hail...along with a rumble of thunder. Nothing exciting wrt to size though...maybe some pea sized with this 2nd round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Nice heavy rain shower passing through. No hail yet, but heavier echoes to my southwest so we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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