Q1 Winter Analysis over the last 13 Decades

[ChescoWx]

Hey guys,

So I thought I would analyze the last 13 decades back to the 1890's to see if the first quarter winter months (January-March) outside of the Philadelphia heat island in the more rural areas of the Philadelphia suburbs during the peak winter months of January through March have shown any signs of warming or cooling or more or less snowfall. Keep in mind snowfall amounts are not seasonal totals only January through March totals.

Below is a chart with the analysis of the data. Of interest our most recent complete decade from 2010-2019 was the coldest first quarter since the 1980's! I did not expect to see that!!  The warmest Q1 decade was the 1930's with the coldest being the 1970's. The snowiest was the 1890's followed closely by our most recent complete decade of the 2010's. Overall not surprisingly there appears to be no significant Q1 warming evident outside of the urban heat island impact in SE PA...just typical variability and expected cyclical trends. Snowfall appears to have a stronger cyclical signal with a general fall in snowfall totals from the turn of the 20th century...reaching a low point in the 1930-1950 period with a gradual increase in snowfall through our most recent decade of the 2010's. If I am reading the tea leaves correctly based on cyclical weather I suspect we could be entering a period of declining snowfall over the next 5 decades through the 2060's....with snowfall amounts beginning to climb again starting in the 2070's. Our most recent winter season of 2019/20 may be a sign of the seasons to come as our 5.8" of snow in Chester County PA this season was our 3rd lowest total in history. If these historical trends are indeed cyclical....for many on this forum over 30 years old who love snow - you may be in for some tough sledding (meaning relative to our most recent decade little snow) for the rest of your lives....for the younger folks born since the turn of the century you might at least begin to see snowfall increases as you reach your social security (if it still exists) age in the 2070's.

[ChescoWx]

Thanks Greenskeeper!

The heat island certainly skews the data warmer in data from the major city airport sites