Quincy Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Low-level lapse rates are very small in this area (you can see the warm nose in the TAMU sounding). This might be an inhibiting factor. Initiation down south of the Red River will probably be delayed. That does allow more time for the downstream clouds to push away, which they’re starting to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Yes things will get going east of I-35. West of there is veering off and/or getting undercut by the surging OK boundary. Watch probs 60/40 are actually pretty robust for that box size. Definitely looks like towers are working on a cap. Dews are there; but, will need to heat some more along I-35. Keep in mind a bust is not a bad thing considering 8M ppl in the Metroplex. Days like today I miss living in DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, nrgjeff said: Keep in mind a bust is not a bad thing considering 8M ppl in the Metroplex. And that we just had a major tornado in the north Dallas area in October 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, cheese007 said: And that we just had a major tornado in the north Dallas area in October Not to mention at least some of the model runs suggested that initial activity would be focused on the northern Metroplex. There is a greater population in DFW north of I-30 than south of I-30, generally. Some of the surface observations I am seeing in eastern Parker and western Tarrant counties have temperatures in the lower-to-mid 80s. The big question is how much that cap can take before breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 AND the damage caused by that tornado still hasn't been fixed. The brick wall on DNT and Royal still have that big open part! Not to mention damages within the community. 2 minutes ago, cheese007 said: And that we just had a major tornado in the north Dallas area in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, vwgrrc said: AND the damage caused by that tornado still hasn't been fixed. The brick wall on DNT and Royal still have that big open part! Not to mention damages within the community. Yep, I still pass by it from time to time, especially areas around Texas Instruments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: Not to mention at least some of the model runs suggested that initial activity would be focused on the northern Metroplex. There is a greater population in DFW north of I-30 than south of I-30, generally. Fwiw (and I say this as someone not far from where the tornado hit) the area south of 30, while more sparse, is also much less wealthy. Lots of poverty in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Fwiw (and I say this as someone not far from where the tornado hit) the area south of 30, while more sparse, is also much less wealthy. Lots of poverty in that area To be honest, if a tornado had to hit a residential area, I would rather it happen in a wealthy area like the Park Cities or Southlake given the COVID-19 situation and all. It would be very costly for the insurance companies (like 10/20/19 was), but people with more resources would be less of a risk for spreading the virus in the aftermath of such a tornado and could more easily recover from the aftermath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 38 minutes ago, mob1 said: This one's in a better radar spot. A tornado may have occurred near Henderson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, BrandonC_TX said: To be honest, if a tornado had to hit a residential area, I would rather it happen in a wealthy area like the Park Cities or Southlake given the COVID-19 situation and all. It would be very costly for the insurance companies (like 10/20/19 was), but people with more resources would be less of a risk for spreading the virus in the aftermath of such a tornado and could more easily recover from the aftermath. Oh 100% agree. Roughly what I was (attempting) to say in my OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Privileged people die! 12 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: To be honest, if a tornado had to hit a residential area, I would rather it happen in a wealthy area like the Park Cities or Southlake given the COVID-19 situation and all. It would be very costly for the insurance companies (like 10/20/19 was), but people with more resources would be less of a risk for spreading the virus in the aftermath of such a tornado and could more easily recover from the aftermath. I'm just messin' with you. Had the same discussion in Chattanooga. Area hit is able to WFH for covid, has insurance for the tor, and otherwise can recover. However, a 4-year old boy succumbed to his injuries in the hospital. As a parent who protects my family, I cannot imagine what the dad is feeling. So, I'm still salty about privilege. Back to weather. I would chase straight north of DFW on I-35, perhaps into southern Oklahoma, but not far. Keep near Red River crossing until final cell selection. Wind might be more backed in southern OK; but, be mindful of that surging boundary from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Latest HRRR really tones down any notable activity until storms are east of the immediate DFW area Edit: Just looked at the 18z 3km NAM, it showed storms fire north-south going through Tarrant County at like 3 PM but since that hasn't happened well I guess that may not verify either, so good news as well I suppose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: Latest HRRR really tones down any notable activity until storms are east of the immediate DFW area Excellent news for the Metroplex if that solution verifies. Some of the temperatures in western Tarrant County continue to rise and are still ahead of the dryline (I believe the dryline is near or just west of the Tarrant/Parker county line). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Sun is basically out in far north Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 TOR warning just north of Lufkin Tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, TexMexWx said: Latest HRRR really tones down any notable activity until storms are east of the immediate DFW area The HRRR and current radar are a bit too different to compare at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Low level lapse rates are improving just west of the metroplex as temps rise. Cap seems breakable as I look at 700 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, Paulie21 said: The HRRR and current radar are a bit too different to compare at this moment. Fair enough, I haven't been comparing both at the same time so looks like the story is still to keep going with obs and nowcasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 3:35 pm Central cell getting healthy west of CLL. Hopefully keeps south of town CLL/Bryan. Too bad I think it's the wrong side for viewing from the A&M Lab. Nacogdoches cell is a beast. East Texas acting like Dixie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 They outflow boundary from Duncan to Pauls Valley, OK continues to drop south. Temps are averaging near 63F on the immediate cool side. Looks like the focus area is getting more narrowed down to the Red River. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 I'm fairly confident at this point that I am not going to get severe weather at my location in west Fort Worth (just west of I-35W), unless something explosively develops in the next 30 minutes or so. The dryline is very close and should pass over my location soon. Dallas County, Collin County, and points east might not be so lucky though, if this cap breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Betting on the cap in DFW is usually a wise move. Key word: usually EDIT: Up in Ardmore Brett Adair has something interesting on his stream. Looks promising for tornadic activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Not sure what the convective temperature is, but those mid-to-upper 80s temperature observations I am seeing in western Tarrant County (some of which may be behind the dryline now) are concerning me. Maybe not for my location but for points to the east, should an updraft get going and then sustain itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Funnel cloud reported near College Station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 1 minute ago, mob1 said: Funnel cloud reported near College Station. That cell is only severe-warned right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, TexMexWx said: That cell is only severe-warned right? Yes. It does have some broad weak rotation but doesn't look like much at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Looks like a funnel about to form on Brett's stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 The storm west of Alexandria LA beginning to turn right a bit more. Should be warned soon I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: those mid-to-upper 80s temperature observations I am seeing in western Tarrant County (some of which may be behind the dryline now) are concerning me Was it forecast to get that high over there? Here in southern Collin county we're seeing temps in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s in some spots. It might warm up beyond that too. We're finally getting some considerable sunlight too and it just feels muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, TexMexWx said: Was it forecast to get that high over there? Here in southern Collin county we're seeing temps in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s in some spots. It might warm up beyond that too. Those are generally personal weather stations (from Wundermap), but when I see a whole bunch of those averaging around a certain temperature I pretty much take it as fact. I would keep an eye on southern Denton County right now, there seems to be agitated cumulus around 114 and I-35W (from satellite imagery) that looks like it could try to turn into a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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