jojo762 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Impressed with the amount of supercells that popped up across OK this evening, even some exhibiting weak rotation... Not exactly how I anticipated the evening would go. Considered driving the 7/8 hours down to the TX panhandle today, but thought CAPE, etc. looked too marginal to warrant that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 813 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WEST CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHEASTERN BECKHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT. * AT 813 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF REYDON, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHEYENNE, HAMMON, REYDON, STRONG CITY, MOOREWOOD, ROLL, BERLIN AND DEMPSEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Ope... and Elk City, OK storm just went TOR warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Latest forecast discussion from FWD mentions CAPE values of 3 to 4,000 over the metroplex tomorrow. Very conditional setup but that's a hell of a lot of instability to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Latest forecast discussion from FWD mentions CAPE values of 3 to 4,000 over the metroplex tomorrow. Very conditional setup but that's a hell of a lot of instability to work with 00z HRRR shows 5,000 uncapped at 21z but doesn’t show any convection in the area, despite really pulling back on coverage in the first round earlier in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 851 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2020 OKC009-039-129-149-220230- /O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-200422T0230Z/ WASHITA OK-ROGER MILLS OK-CUSTER OK-BECKHAM OK- 851 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR WESTERN WASHITA...SOUTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS...SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER AND NORTHEASTERN BECKHAM COUNTIES... AT 851 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELK CITY, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE LARGEST HAIL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ELK CITY AREA TOWARD CANUTE AND BURNS FLAT. HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ELK CITY, CLINTON, BURNS FLAT, DILL CITY, CANUTE, FOSS, FOSS RESERVOIR, STAFFORD AND BERLIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 00z RAP and NAM indicate a substantial severe weather event tomorrow afternoon and evening across S OK and N TX... Given low-level moisture, instability, and wind profiles in forecast soundings am very concerned about the possibility of strong tornadoes. 00z hi-res guidance was a bit all over the place with regard to convective evolution INVOF the dryline though... BUT the environment along and east of the dryline looks very impressive -- along with minimal to no CINH, throwing into question the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 27 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Given low-level moisture, instability, and wind profiles in forecast soundings am very concerned about the possibility of strong tornadoes. Great time to be living in a 2nd floor apartment and the one set of downstairs neighbors you knew have moved out. If I get hit by a tornado I'm fighting God 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Yes it could be interesting tomorrow. My Target Triangle of interest is between Purcell, Madill, and McAlester, OK. Could be some nasty storms in this area as we go into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1128 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. * AT 1127 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF STERLING, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARLOW, RUSH SPRINGS, BRAY AND STERLING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Tornado warning extended for that same storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 1 hour ago, jojo762 said: 00z RAP and NAM indicate a substantial severe weather event tomorrow afternoon and evening across S OK and N TX... Given low-level moisture, instability, and wind profiles in forecast soundings am very concerned about the possibility of strong tornadoes. 00z hi-res guidance was a bit all over the place with regard to convective evolution INVOF the dryline though... BUT the environment along and east of the dryline looks very impressive -- along with minimal to no CINH, throwing into question the models. What about for DFW metro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Keep abreast of weather for the metro later today. It all depends on whether or not storms initially form to the west of you. The environmental parameters are indicative of the possibility of strong tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Yeah, if storms initiate right off/near the dryline around the mid-afternoon maybe, we could be in for a wild ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 New day 1 out.... 10% hatched tor also looks a lil bit east of DFW, no? 30% hatched hail though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Yeah with the new outlook that came out, wording sounds like they think storms will form east of us now... Haven't been able to load the graphic nor the outlook text yet though Edit: Just saw the graphics you posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 There was some heavy rain and lots of lightning with these storms here in Norman, but the most severe stuff missed us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnj79 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 6 hours ago, TexMexWx said: Yeah, if storms initiate right off/near the dryline around the mid-afternoon maybe, we could be in for a wild ride. My parents, brother and many friends all live in Wills Point (VZ County). I was up there helping my mom recover from surgery during the April 2017 tornadoes and that was scary enough to last me a lifetime. I have never seen skies look like that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 If storms do move into the Metroplex, I'd be willing to place a nice wager on a big hailer moving through Collin County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Bit on the cloudy side this morning. Wonder how fast things will clear out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 48 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Bit on the cloudy side this morning. Wonder how fast things will clear out? Yeah, all of the clouds are going to put a damper on things, IMO. Already seeing junk showers from I-35 east. Need that to move out and see some sun ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, cstrunk said: Yeah, all of the clouds are going to put a damper on things, IMO. Already seeing junk showers from I-35 east. Need that to move out and see some sun ASAP. Funny considering the concern about capping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 will be watching the storms over SE Texas to see if they can become surface based above any shallow inversion after noon, if they can lots of low level shear in LLJ axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 20 minutes ago, cstrunk said: Yeah, all of the clouds are going to put a damper on things, IMO. Already seeing junk showers from I-35 east. Need that to move out and see some sun ASAP. I don’t think it will be much of an issue. Instability picks up drastically as the dryline approaches this afternoon. That doesn’t mean storms are guaranteed to fire, but any issues won’t be instability driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 I'm observing the models right now and the 14z HRRR shows a cell forming between 1-2 PM and tracking through the northern DFW metro through about 5 PM, within a decent-looking environment. The 12z 3km NAM shows a storm as well through the center of the metro, but more around 4-7 PM. Those two are probably the more ominous of the convection-allowing models, but of course one shouldn't get caught up in the exact placement of the storms. I probably should've looked more at other areas cause on the HRRR at least, storms over SE TX and parts of OK looked interesting as well for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: I'm observing the models right now and the 14z HRRR shows a cell forming between 1-2 PM and tracking through the northern DFW metro through about 5 PM, within a decent-looking environment. The 12z 3km NAM shows a storm as well through the center of the metro, but more around 4-7 PM. Those two are probably the more ominous of the convection-allowing models, but of course one shouldn't get caught up in the exact placement of the storms. I probably should've looked more at other areas cause on the HRRR at least, storms over SE TX and parts of OK looked interesting as well. I agree, DFW is definitely in a precarious position this afternoon. 28 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said: I don’t think it will be much of an issue. Instability picks up drastically as the dryline approaches this afternoon. That doesn’t mean storms are guaranteed to fire, but any issues won’t be instability driven. Maybe I should have clarified, I have more of a IMBY bias here in Longview. I do think there is a greater threat in an area bounded by DFW, Sulpher Springs TX, Pauls Valley OK, and McAlester OK. SE TX may also be interesting. Not sure that the greater threat will extend eastwards towards NW LA as per SPC. Not to say there won't be severe storms farther east, as I'm sure there will be. As always, I'm sure this could/will change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CDT WED APR 22 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 221538Z - 221745Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE, EVENTUALLY POSING A RISK OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/LIGHTNING IMAGERY INDICATES A CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS AREAS IN CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH OTHER RADAR ECHOES NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR TYLER. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 8.5 C/KM) AND STRONG SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER, SUGGESTIVE OF AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL THREAT WITH HAIL (PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT). AS THE REGION IS UNDER THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SPATIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OF THE LATEST CAMS. OVER TIME, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED - ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT WHERE MODEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING (THROUGH ADVECTION AND INSOLATION) WILL OCCUR AMIDST LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND FAVORABLE (CELLULAR) STORM MODE WILL ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO/WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION GIVEN EXPECTED 250-500 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH VALUES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS INDICATE THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Goes right up to the DFW Metro but it's a toss-up if the watch will actually include Dallas county, either way DFW itself would be on the edge of THIS watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Question: If these storms do form in SE TX, would that limit the moisture/instability that can go up towards DFW and southern OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT WED APR 22 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA EAST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1055 AM UNTIL 500 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS LIKELY. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now