jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Don't think I have ever seen a Tornado Watch have "high" probabilities for five of the six categories and not be PDS. Interesting. Winds are looking veered to nearly southwest, or at least south-southwest, across most of Southern MS and AL. As of now, most of the tornado threat would appear to be tied to storms INVOF the warm front where winds will be locally backed. As referenced in the BMX AFD this morning, I am not entirely sure how much of a tornado threat will exist across southern MS/AL if surface winds are going to remain out of the southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Calderon said: Also watching a pair of cells northeast of Victoria, TX. The northern one does have some mid-level rotation evident and moving into an undisturbed environment as it moves towards the southern half of metro Houston. Im watching that as well, unimpeded environment ahead of it and its super isolated. Getting better organized as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 26 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOUISIANA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. Hate to nitpick here, but the discussion language mentions “an isolated strong tornado is possible” while the primary threat section says “a couple of intense tornadoes likely.” There shouldn’t be a discrepancy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 123 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EVANS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 200 PM EDT. * AT 123 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEVILS, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 31 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: holy hell Wonder what it looks like in those high rises? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 115 PM CDT. * AT 1227 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SHEPHERD, OR 9 MILES NORTH OF CLEVELAND, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Helicity increasing to 300 for the se TX area into Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Houston could have a problem with that discrete cell across Wharton Co. TX if it can get better organized, all by itself and HGX VWP indicates 0-3km SRH on the order of >450m^2/s^2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Looks like new SPC meso says trends towards supercellular mode are apparent over SE TX and far SW LA Edit: The page didn't refresh for me so I thought nobody had commented on the environment in SE TX. My bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 SPC just put out an MCD for that cell SW of Houston. Says trend is toward a more discrete mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020 Areas affected...upper coast of TX...southwest LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 120... Valid 191739Z - 191845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues. SUMMARY...Convective trends towards a supercellular convective mode are increasing as 700mb flow intensifies this afternoon. Large to very large hail is possible with the mature supercells. A tornado risk will probably accompany the stronger/more persistent low-level mesocyclones. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery trends over the past hour are showing warm sector development of storms acquiring some intermittent rotation north of the greater Houston area. A robust supercell has also recently developed to the north of Matagorda Bay moving towards the south side of the Houston metro during the next few hours. The boundary layer across the upper coast of TX continues to destabilize as temperatures warm through the 70s and into the lower 80s near Galveston Bay. As storms continue to gradually intensify during the early afternoon, coincident with the aforementioned strengthening flow in the low to mid levels, the risk for a tornado and large to very large hail will correspondingly increase with the strongest storms. Short-term model guidance is suggesting at least some severe activity will move across the Galveston Bay vicinity and into southwest LA and the near-shore waters during the next 2-4 hours. ..Smith.. 04/19/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29209642 30889521 31379385 31239319 30769295 30039322 28549565 29209642 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Storms SW of Houston do need to be watched. Mesoanalysis trends are favorable for further development, STP is high. Things are starting to light up at this point all over east TX and southern and western LA as diabatic heating increases amidst already high dew points and strong(er) deep-layer sheer. We're heading into the active part of the day--whatever that ends up meaning. I see I've been beaten to this as well by a bunch of folks but I was waiting to post until the two cells had finished merging to see what happened with that interaction before sounding a fool. Looks like a couplet is forming right now so any chaser in that area is probably seeing a developing wall cloud. Ignore the second attachment, the first one is the newer update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 DGX radar showing a definite move n/ne with the storms as the WF progresses northward in MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, Indystorm said: DGX radar showing a definite move n/ne with the storms as the WF progresses northward in MS. Think it’s pretty safe to assume areas south of Jackson, MS will be primed in the coming hours as the storms in LA progress east. They’ll be heading into a very unstable environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Cell north of Bay City, TX (west of HGX) starting to acquire rotation and a ZDR-arc. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Just now, jojo762 said: Cell north of Bay City, TX (west of HGX) starting to acquire rotation and a ZDR-arc. Hmm... Rotation aloft continues to gradually build but still needs to tighten up more, and with more heavy showers developing in the inflow catchment area, not sure if it'll go all the way before moving offshore and becoming a shipping and rig hazard, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 so far surface winds remain veered SW and light this favors outflow dominated MCS..with meso head spin ups HRRR seems to continue the trend edit: surface winds do pick up some here soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: so far surface winds remain veered SW and light this favors outflow dominated MCS..with meso head spin ups HRRR seems to continue the trend edit: surface winds do pick up some here soon I don't think it's so much the surface winds, as it is the lack of stronger deep layer shear and low-level storm-relative flow (~20-25 kt and ~50-55 kt). Both these measures are considerably weaker than they were for the event last weekend at this same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 So far no real cells ramping up or getting going much...some svr warned but no strong rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Rotation starting to look better on the Houston cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 like last weekend clues the cell in western north central LA is sharping up on the back side out of the grunge edit: now TOR wanred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Tornado warning for just south of Natchitoches, LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Original Nacogdoches storm tornado warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Alexandria LA 75/71 calm wind Monroe 63/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Starting to get going now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 HGX storm just went TOR warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Tornado Warning for... West central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas... Northeastern Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...Until 2:30 PM CDT VERY clear hook echo on this cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 33 minutes ago, CryHavoc said: Tornado warning for just south of Natchitoches, LA. 30 minutes ago, Derek30 said: Original Nacogdoches storm tornado warned now The ol' Nacogdoches/Natchitoches conundrum. One, the other, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 D2 enhanced up for the Carolinas. Looks like another multi-day event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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