Santa Clause Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Couplet weakening some...maybe going to cycle..hopefully spares Purvis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, geddyweather said: Hoping it splits the middle between Purvis and Hattiesburg. Gonna be close. There is both an industrial area and a residential subdivision there NW of Purvis on Maps. don't forget about Camp Shelby in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Tornado Warning MSC035-073-200115- /O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0044.200420T0044Z-200420T0115Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Jackson MS 744 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020 The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Forrest County in southeastern Mississippi... East central Lamar County in southeastern Mississippi... * Until 815 PM CDT. * At 744 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Baxterville, or 15 miles southwest of West Hattiesburg, moving east at 55 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Mclaurin around 805 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3109 8939 3127 8938 3131 8915 3112 8915 TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 258DEG 49KT 3115 8954 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...1.75IN $$ DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Looks like we are having some cell Merger here. This is looking less and less like two separate storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 I wonder what's going to be left of the Hattiesburg area after this tornadic storm. the downtown and north side of town is looking at golf ball hail and high winds, the south side, including the airport, is looking they're about to get blasted with either the tornado itself or a pretty nasty inflow wind into this tornado. good luck to them in these next few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, Jim Marusak said: I wonder what's going to be left of the Hattiesburg area after this tornadic storm. the downtown and north side of town is looking at golf ball hail and high winds, the south side, including the airport, is looking they're about to get blasted with either the tornado itself or a pretty nasty inflow wind into this tornado. good luck to them in these next few minutes I noticed they were betting blasted by hail as well. Interesting, there wasn't much in the way of large hail with last week's storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 TDS is gone now, and velocity signature has fallen apart. Doubt anything is on the ground at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Reed Timmer is about 2 mins behind Brandon Clement on the same road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, Buckeye05 said: TDS is gone now, and velocity signature has fallen apart. Doubt anything is on the ground at this point. Yeah, luckily it’s gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Definitely some good news as this storm approaches the I-59 corridor. But this storm could be cycling and has taken somewhat of a left turn. Could spell trouble for the southernmost parts of Hattiesburg (US-98 corridor) if this storm is only cycling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Hail core has diminished a smidge as well. Not sure if she’s cycling or dying. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: I noticed they were betting blasted by hail as well. Interesting, there wasn't much in the way of large hail with last week's storms. If I had to guess, looking at the echo tops, these storms probably have stronger updrafts than last week. That would make some sense, we aren't lacking instability. Last weeks storms had more spin and low level shear, but updraft strength wasn't as strong (iirc). Also, what we define as "a lot" is subjective. I haven't seen a "lot" of anything today. A lot of crudvection, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, Moderately Unstable said: If I had to guess, looking at the echo tops, these storms probably have stronger updrafts than last week. That would make some sense, we aren't lacking instability. Last weeks storms had more spin and low level shear, but updraft strength wasn't as strong (iirc). Also, what we define as "a lot" is subjective. I haven't seen a "lot" of anything today. A lot of crudvection, yes. I agree, I think the updrafts are stronger today. More instability, slightly higher tropopause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Tops still over 50,000 feet, don't think she's dying yet. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Camp Shelby in the path I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Might be trying to wrap up again just south of Hattiesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Couplet may be increasing again, inflow definitely is healthy. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Couplet getting tight again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Tornado reported down 2 minutes ago crossing U-49 on SN. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 The outflow from the northern convection earlier is coming south. If the storm rides it, the tornado threat may continue, but the stable air may cut off surface inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Now there's a wind profile you don't see every day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 this one too: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: Tops still over 50,000 feet, don't think she's dying yet. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 55k actually. It is entraining air from other storms and isn't staying discrete. As with most supercell structures, when a well defined structure like this crashes into another storm, it makes a mess. If it sorts that out, it has plenty of energy and space to produce. Couplet never really went away, but it is far from the radar. Beam height at the couplet is centered at 6.2k feet. Strong rotation, if it follows a typical sig tor tornadic supercell pattern, it will produce again. More a question of how strong, how long, and what does it do with the other cells in the area. That last one was pretty serious, and we will hear about problems from that one later. Does this go on to now put down an EF0, or does it keep it together and drop another 3? Outflow dominance has been the theme of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ..SUMMARY A SEVERE-WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TORNADOES WITH SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL. ..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. THE FIRST IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF AND ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS SHEAR RAMPS UP ACROSS THE REGION. IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE HEAR 2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE RAP. IN ADDITION, THE WSR-88D VWP NEAR DOTHAN, ALABAMA SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 65 TO 70 KT WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY NEAR 320 M2/S2. THE SURFACE WIND IS FROM DUE SOUTH AND THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES THIS EVENING. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST. THE CONVECTION THAT REMAINS LINEAR WITHIN THE COMPLEX, SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. THIS COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING. FURTHER WEST, THE SECOND CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A MAXIMUM IN INSTABILITY. THE RAP IS SHOWING A BULLSEYE OF MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. JUST DOWNSTREAM, THE MOBILE WSR-88D VWP HAS A 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 65 KT WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL. IN SPITE OF A VEERED SURFACE WIND, 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS NEAR 550 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS THAT ARE DOMINANT. LARGE HAIL WITH HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL-LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 New cluster of surfaced based supercells have exploded on the SW border of MS in the last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 what is even happening inside this very wide circulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, Chinook said: what is even happening inside this very wide circulation? We've got sisters. Sorry, watched Twister with the kids today. But, that's what it looks like to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Looks more like a broad circulation to me. Not very tight but velocities may be increasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 There's a big time flash flood threat behind this supercell. It's dumping a ton of rain and more storms are popping along the OFB behind it and training along the path. I expect some really bad flooding to occur tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, JasonOH said: There's a big time flash flood threat behind this supercell. It's dumping a ton of rain and more storms are popping along the OFB behind it and training along the path. I expect some really bad flooding to occur tonight. I was just posting the same thing as you ninja'd me At least 6" so far and counting as the storms are training along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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