MUWX Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 That is almost certainly the storm of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Just now, Snowstorm920 said: The environment that cell is in is very favorable for strong to violent tornadoes Not sure. The KLIX profile looks pretty crappy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Convection throughout the day has limited both the mobility of the front and scope of this outbreak. Honestly this is all probably a good thing after the devastation we saw on Easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Convection throughout the day has limited both the mobility of the front and scope of this outbreak. Honestly this is all probably a good thing after the devastation we saw on Easter And will make for good educational comparisons.....at least up to this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowstorm920 said: That shows only 27 knots of 0-3km SRH while the SPC meso page has the cell sitting in an environment with almost 400 0-3 SRH. Small difference The difference between actual obs from VWPs and model (in this case RAP) forecasts is remarkable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 This could be a strong tornado in western Alabama, but the radar is not very close to this. I do not see evidence of a TDS on the CC scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twistingtornado Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Strong tornado? With those wind profiles? Yeah, good luck. They're a lot worse than the forecasted wind profiles. Less aircraft observations looks like it definitely had an impact on forecasting this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Convection throughout the day has limited both the mobility of the front and scope of this outbreak. Honestly this is all probably a good thing after the devastation we saw on Easter Moreof really crappy wind profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: The difference between actual obs from VWPs and model (in this case RAP) forecasts is remarkable.. Ya there’s definitely something going on the modes aren’t catching. Be interesting to see how things evolve tonight. Some short range models are showing the environment becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes as the night goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Brandon Clements stream on livestormchasing looks ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowstorm920 said: Ya there’s definitely something going on the modes aren’t catching. Be interesting to see how things evolve tonight. Some short range models are showing the environment becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes as the night goes on While wind profiles look good overnight on the mesoscale models, they've been so far off till now that it's hard to know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Couplet NW of McComb steadily improving as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 KMOB VWP has improved some, hodograph is still kinda junky looking but it now exhibits >250m^2/s^2 0-1KM SRH... Imagine the LLJ is probably starting to get cranking. Might increase the tornado potential some, but it's not going to increase dramatically in areas with SW SFC winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 the shallow backdoor outflows have really squeezed the warm sector south...I still think the lack of strong surface flow pushing back on the outflows allowed this HRRR says the warrm sector never makes it to SC expect perhaps the extreme SE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Chinook said: This could be a strong tornado in western Alabama, but the radar is not very close to this. I do not see evidence of a TDS on the CC scan. That is not a tornadic signature, let alone a strong one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Supercell south of McComb, MS has started to deviate and detach from the convection to its north. Probably seeing the storm of the day evolve. Obs in front of this storm exhibit local backing with a mix of southeast, south, and south-southwest surface winds observed downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Looks like a pretty good signature in Lowndes county AL west of Gordonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 SPC talks about that outflow boundary i mentioned messing things up for the northern cells but is eyeing the southern one CUS11 KWNS 192338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192337 MSZ000-LAZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...122...123... VALID 192337Z - 200030Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121, 122, 123 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR FOR HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS MOVING ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO, BUT HAVE NOW MOSTLY CONGEALED INTO A CLUSTER DUE TO UPSCALE GROWTH AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN STORM IS STILL EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND HAS SHOWN MESH VALUES OF 1+ INCH ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE HAS WEAKENED IT SOMEWHAT. SURFACE WINDS NEAR MCB AND EASTWARD HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST INDICATING POTENTIALLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL HELICITY, WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE AND THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnj79 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Reed Timmer is on that same cell as Brandon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Tylertown is in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Unbelievably dark on Reed's stream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, StormySquares said: Tylertown is in trouble Eh... Storm is still organizing. Rotation is still kind of broad. It's having to fight off a lot of junkvection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Eh... Storm is still organizing. Rotation is still kind of broad. It's having to fight off a lot of junkvection. Yeah it’s not real organized at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Velocity looks a little better now per the latest scan. It's still trying.. Cell near Montgomery, AL may be worth watching as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 00z and only 2 tornado reports so far (plus whatever that brief TDS was in LA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Tylertown storm is really improving its presentation. Hook is becoming evident and the inbounds (outflow) are ramping up like the outbounds (inflow) have been the last few scans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Seems well organized now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Looks like it is about to produce, if it hasn't already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Watching it on Brett's cam. I don't see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 PDS Tor warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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