Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Sharp southern boundary near Kev, such a tough call but if 18z EURO is still there, ride that out. 18z NAM is hilarious though around BOS. Can you imagine if pretty much the entire state of MA woke up to 6-9”...right into downtown Boston. Another shift south though. What’s 3k look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Looks like the best chance of lollis 6+ will be farther west, but I think 4-6 at your elevation is a good starting point. Can always adjust up later right? I think models around 06z are handling the snow fairly well if you use the max wet bulb temp method available on Bufkit, but spit out another inch or so after conditions get much worse. So I'm skeptical of the tail end stuff towards dawn, but the 06z thump looks very real. Shouldn't be hard to stack up 4 in that given the way things are modeled right now. I can’t see this overperforming though much. I think 8” is max ceiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I can’t see this overperforming though much. I think 8” is max ceiling That's about the highest number I can pick out of Bufkit right now (like ORH) so you're probably right. I think forcing moving from laterally translating to quasi-stationary as it nears the coast is going to be the biggest factor in this being a solid advisory event. Instead of 1-2 hours of thump you may get 3-4 hours instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 That is the 3k NAM Kev. The simulated radar prog is trying to show your Tolland hills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Not much leaf out here but N CT might have some power issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That is the 3k NAM Kev. The simulated radar prog is trying to show your Tolland hills. That came south a bit each run today . Ginx called it with riding Euro. Even the new bad Euro. It’s been steadfast 6-8 runs in succession Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Not much leaf out here but N CT might have some power issues? Didn't have any up here either but between 3 and 4 inches that was enough to take out the weaker branches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Not much leaf out here but N CT might have some power issues? It's mostly bare here. The cold nights have slowed things down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That came south a bit each run today . Ginx called it with riding Euro. Even the new bad Euro. It’s been steadfast 6-8 runs in succession It ticked north at 925, and could see another tick north again tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Not enthused for anything noteworthy here. Looks best north and west and elevation dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It ticked north at 925, and could see another tick north again tonight. All were plenty cold if you’re trying to get rain in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It ticked north at 925, and could see another tick north again tonight. Hellacious thump here though... was a net gain in my eyes at 12z. I could give a crap if the margins are non accumulating snow or slush, if the meat of the storm is a paster here I’ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Fun late night Friday. Coffee at 4pm and snow walk 1am. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Is it me or does it seem weird BOX has no advisories out? Whats your threshold there? Is it 3 or 4 inches? Seems like it would be worthy of at least a cluster of county zones around ORH and Mass Pike zones to East Slopes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Is it me or does it seem weird BOX has no advisories out? Whats your threshold there? Is it 3 or 4 inches? How about confidence? Is this a slam dunk or is it riddled with caution flags? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Is it me or does it seem weird BOX has no advisories out? Whats your threshold there? Is it 3 or 4 inches? Seems like it would be worthy of at least a cluster of county zones around ORH and Mass Pike zones to East Slopes? They are 3" And they still get one more shot to see data with the mid shift before they really need to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: They are 3" And they still get one more shot to see data with the mid shift before they really need to pull the trigger. I’m a fukkin idiot, lol. For a second I forgot it was happening tomorrow night, not tonight. Yeah disregard that statement haha. No doubt if the guidance is the same tomorrow they issue advisories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I’m a fukkin idiot, lol. For a second I forgot it was happening tomorrow night, not tonight. Yeah disregard that statement haha. No doubt if the guidance is the same tomorrow they issue advisories. I did the same. I was looking at Euro cross sections for CT thinking it's effing cold tonight of course it will be snow, except it's 24 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Mostly bare trees around here, snow won't be a problem. Lol. Tell that to Mainers last week .Except all trees have buds and white pines.prep the genny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. Tell that to Mainers last week .Except all trees have buds and white pines.prep the genny Yeah if there are large enough areas that sneak into the 3-5 inch range (and the fact that CT is an outage hotspot) there will be power problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. Tell that to Mainers last week .Except all trees have buds and white pines.prep the genny They had alot more snow than we will have out of this. You think every weather event will cause some sort of disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah if there are large enough areas that sneak into the 3-5 inch range (and the fact that CT is an outage hotspot) there will be power problems. We tried to tell em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah if there are large enough areas that sneak into the 3-5 inch range (and the fact that CT is an outage hotspot) there will be power problems. We had 3" of snow falling on fully leafed out trees here in October of 2015, 10" of slop in 2011 and didn't lose power here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: We had 3" of snow falling on fully leafed out trees here in October of 2015, 10" of slop in 2011 and didn't lose power here. Maybe you personally but October 2011 was devastating on the whole for CT power wise, no? Not sure if that’s a great example of avoiding outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Sharp southern boundary near Kev, such a tough call but if 18z EURO is still there, ride that out. 18z NAM is hilarious though around BOS. Can you imagine if pretty much the entire state of MA woke up to 6-9”...right into downtown Boston. LOL. What a grossly overdone map. Boston and really any of the immediate coast will not get even half of those amounts. Toss as far as you can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 49 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: It's mostly bare here. The cold nights have slowed things down. Do you live in a hole? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Maybe you but October 2011 was devastating on the whole for CT power wise, no? I'm talking about here in Enfield. I lived in Coventry in 2011. Very little tree damage there, as the higher elevations were mostly bare except for the Oaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, ineedsnow said: Same with my dumbass Bradford Pear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Do you live in a hole? Yes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now