Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You might just be able to stay up for it...it's prob like 11pm-3am out that way. So no lingering well into Saturday East of River like Euro has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So no lingering well into Saturday East of River like Euro has? Will be non-accumulating melting faster than the falling snow, after 8am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Dude you would beat me by 50" assuming I didn't get anything. LOL. Not that pathetic for you. Beats me by 60" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 This is crazy , Napril Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Warm next weekend! LFG!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Warm next weekend! LFG!! He would be all over you for posting a day 10 cold map and you know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 EPS looks closer to the other models. Meh down this way..but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 59 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The 3K NAM has a huge thump. Very close here too..but probably need it a shade colder. Looks great interior SEmass Some of the NAM soundings are a little MAUL-y for a time overnight. Near and shortly after 06z could be interesting. DGZ is maybe a shade high in the column, but overall not a bad overlap with omega. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Some of the NAM soundings are a little MAUL-y for a time overnight. Near and shortly after 06z could be interesting. DGZ is maybe a shade high in the column, but overall not a bad overlap with omega. HRRRx or whatever we are calling it , has decent DGZ column on it's product. It has a deeper column on the big thump even on the south coast. Of course temps there are borderline, but sometimes that can help. I wonder if areas along the south coast start as rain, flip to paste, and then back to -RASN again as rates lighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRRx or whatever we are calling it , has decent DGZ column on it's product. It has a deeper column on the big thump even on the south coast. Of course temps there are borderline, but sometimes that can help. I wonder if areas along the south coast start as rain, flip to paste, and then back to -RASN again as rates lighten up. It could definitely be a rate dependent pytpe for those on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 I look forward to my 8" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said: The 3K NAM has a huge thump. Very close here too..but probably need it a shade colder. Looks great interior SEmass We bang on the 3k... hits SE Mass hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Even that GFS sounding for BOS is sneaky. Technically accumulates no snow because pytpe doesn't spit any out, but the boundary layer warmth is only about 1400 ft thick. That's pretty close to not being able to fully melt. And if you are snowing hard enough it gets even tougher to keep up with the melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Even that GFS sounding for BOS is sneaky. Technically accumulates no snow because pytpe doesn't spit any out, but the boundary layer warmth is only about 1400 ft thick. That's pretty close to not being able to fully melt. And if you are snowing hard enough it gets even tougher to keep up with the melting. Plus it all at night. We pound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Plus it all at night. We pound I actually don't hate your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I actually don't hate your location. What’s your threshhold on power issues for this? Colder aloft than your Maine event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I actually don't hate your location. Me either. I’ve been thinking he gets smoked pretty good on the Massif. Should be interesting to see the layout of totals tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Even that GFS sounding for BOS is sneaky. Technically accumulates no snow because pytpe doesn't spit any out, but the boundary layer warmth is only about 1400 ft thick. That's pretty close to not being able to fully melt. And if you are snowing hard enough it gets even tougher to keep up with the melting. Good point. Is that around 950mb or even lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Me either. I’ve been thinking he gets smoked pretty good on the Massif. Should be interesting to see the layout of totals tomorrow. LFG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What’s your threshhold on power issues for this? Colder aloft than your Maine event? Looks fairly similar temp-wise, you'll have a lot of SNE in the magic 0-1C wet bulb zone. That's usually good for the sticky stuff. I noticed a significant uptick in power issues around 4 inches with our last event. 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Good point. Is that around 950mb or even lower? That's between 950 and 925 on average, which is why 925 can be a good proxy (but sometimes is too high) but 950 almost guarantees snow if it's below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: You might just be able to stay up for it...it's prob like 11pm-3am out that way. Perfect, I’ll have an early afternoon cuppa coffee and should be good to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: LFG! This def. seems like a TOL special or at least a northern Conn hills and southern Worcester hills special. Anywhere in your area that has some elevation will easily be over 3". I congratulate you early. Good spot to be for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 18z GFS went much more robust but tucked even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: This def. seems like a TOL special or at least a northern Conn hills and southern Worcester hills special. Anywhere in your area that has some elevation will easily be over 3". I congratulate you early. Good spot to be for this one I think based on past experiences and the setup and local climatology knowledge a solid 4-7” here . I think that’s for elevations over 800 feet. 500 feet and under is more 2-3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Looks fairly similar temp-wise, you'll have a lot of SNE in the magic 0-1C wet bulb zone. That's usually good for the sticky stuff. I noticed a significant uptick in power issues around 4 inches with our last event. That's between 950 and 925 on average, which is why 925 can be a good proxy (but sometimes is too high) but 950 almost guarantees snow if it's below freezing. After you previous post I got a screen grab from Kevin and the text, "Legro is a fantastic met. Best of the best. Snow and severe" Someone's excited... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Looks fairly similar temp-wise, you'll have a lot of SNE in the magic 0-1C wet bulb zone. That's usually good for the sticky stuff. I noticed a significant uptick in power issues around 4 inches with our last event. That's between 950 and 925 on average, which is why 925 can be a good proxy (but sometimes is too high) but 950 almost guarantees snow if it's below freezing. You think 4-5” here with elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, CT Rain said: After you previous post I got a screen grab from Kevin and the text, "Legro is a fantastic met. Best of the best. Snow and severe" Someone's excited... The highest honor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You think 4-5” here with elevation? Looks like the best chance of lollis 6+ will be farther west, but I think 4-6 at your elevation is a good starting point. Can always adjust up later right? I think models around 06z are handling the snow fairly well if you use the max wet bulb temp method available on Bufkit, but spit out another inch or so after conditions get much worse. So I'm skeptical of the tail end stuff towards dawn, but the 06z thump looks very real. Shouldn't be hard to stack up 4 in that given the way things are modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Sharp southern boundary near Kev, such a tough call but if 18z EURO is still there, ride that out. 18z NAM is hilarious though around BOS. Can you imagine if pretty much the entire state of MA woke up to 6-9”...right into downtown Boston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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