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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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59 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The 3K NAM has a huge thump. Very close here too..but probably need it a shade colder. Looks great interior SEmass

Some of the NAM soundings are a little MAUL-y for a time overnight. Near and shortly after 06z could be interesting. DGZ is maybe a shade high in the column, but overall not a bad overlap with omega. 

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Some of the NAM soundings are a little MAUL-y for a time overnight. Near and shortly after 06z could be interesting. DGZ is maybe a shade high in the column, but overall not a bad overlap with omega. 

HRRRx or whatever we are calling it , has decent DGZ column on it's product. It has a deeper column on the big thump even on the south coast. Of course temps there are borderline, but sometimes that can help. I wonder if areas along the south coast start as rain, flip to paste, and then back to -RASN again as rates lighten up.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRRx or whatever we are calling it , has decent DGZ column on it's product. It has a deeper column on the big thump even on the south coast. Of course temps there are borderline, but sometimes that can help. I wonder if areas along the south coast start as rain, flip to paste, and then back to -RASN again as rates lighten up.

It could definitely be a rate dependent pytpe for those on the edge.

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Even that GFS sounding for BOS is sneaky. Technically accumulates no snow because pytpe doesn't spit any out, but the boundary layer warmth is only about 1400 ft thick. That's pretty close to not being able to fully melt. And if you are snowing hard enough it gets even tougher to keep up with the melting.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Even that GFS sounding for BOS is sneaky. Technically accumulates no snow because pytpe doesn't spit any out, but the boundary layer warmth is only about 1400 ft thick. That's pretty close to not being able to fully melt. And if you are snowing hard enough it gets even tougher to keep up with the melting.

Plus it all at night. We pound 

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16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Even that GFS sounding for BOS is sneaky. Technically accumulates no snow because pytpe doesn't spit any out, but the boundary layer warmth is only about 1400 ft thick. That's pretty close to not being able to fully melt. And if you are snowing hard enough it gets even tougher to keep up with the melting.

Good point. 

Is that around 950mb or even lower?

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

:o:o
What’s your threshhold on power issues for this? Colder aloft than your Maine event?

Looks fairly similar temp-wise, you'll have a lot of SNE in the magic 0-1C wet bulb zone. That's usually good for the sticky stuff. I noticed a significant uptick in power issues around 4 inches with our last event. 

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Good point. 

Is that around 950mb or even lower?

That's between 950 and 925 on average, which is why 925 can be a good proxy (but sometimes is too high) but 950 almost guarantees snow if it's below freezing.

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4 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

This def. seems like a TOL special or at least a northern Conn hills and southern Worcester hills special. Anywhere in your area that has some elevation will easily be over 3". I congratulate you early. Good spot to be for this one

I think based on past experiences and the setup and local climatology knowledge a solid 4-7” here . I think that’s for elevations over 800 feet. 500 feet and under is more 2-3”

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Looks fairly similar temp-wise, you'll have a lot of SNE in the magic 0-1C wet bulb zone. That's usually good for the sticky stuff. I noticed a significant uptick in power issues around 4 inches with our last event. 

That's between 950 and 925 on average, which is why 925 can be a good proxy (but sometimes is too high) but 950 almost guarantees snow if it's below freezing.

After you previous post I got a screen grab from Kevin and the text, "Legro is a fantastic met. Best of the best. Snow and severe"

Someone's excited...

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Looks fairly similar temp-wise, you'll have a lot of SNE in the magic 0-1C wet bulb zone. That's usually good for the sticky stuff. I noticed a significant uptick in power issues around 4 inches with our last event. 

That's between 950 and 925 on average, which is why 925 can be a good proxy (but sometimes is too high) but 950 almost guarantees snow if it's below freezing.

You think 4-5” here with elevation?

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You think 4-5” here with elevation?

Looks like the best chance of lollis 6+ will be farther west, but I think 4-6 at your elevation is a good starting point.

Can always adjust up later right? ;)

I think models around 06z are handling the snow fairly well if you use the max wet bulb temp method available on Bufkit, but spit out another inch or so after conditions get much worse. So I'm skeptical of the tail end stuff towards dawn, but the 06z thump looks very real. Shouldn't be hard to stack up 4 in that given the way things are modeled right now.

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