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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd prob take the Euro and nudge it slightly north....I've seen it a bit too far south a several times this winter and it's the furthest south right now. The old 70/30 compromise.

Something like a EURO/RGEM/GGEM/NAM blend?  The 12z GFS looks sort of like the odd one out.

 

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Something like a EURO/RGEM/GGEM/NAM blend?  The 12z GFS looks sort of like the odd one out.

 

Yeah I'd prob just take the Euro and slightly bump it north...maybe 10-20 miles. We'll see though...it could be right. Ukie was pretty far south too like Euro and it just bumped north a bit.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'd prob just take the Euro and slightly bump it north...maybe 10-20 miles. We'll see though...it could be right. Ukie was pretty far south too like Euro and it just bumped north a bit.

I'm almost afraid to say what model it's from, but this is sort of what I would start with.  Maybe a little higher in N.ORH county and then always can have some spot 4-7" amounts.  But a widespread 2-6" seems like a conservative place to start from?

icon.jpg.f17f2629d621e317a41fc3c5ffe2f0a6.jpg

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will do you see Monday’s coastal as having potential for snow 

Longshot...it's possible, but for anything meaningful, it needs to throw the CCB back better...really curl those midlevels up. Right now they stay kind of elongated.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Freak pulling for south of pike and Will pulling north where he lives. Euro will decide 

I'm in a great spot on the Euro too...might be near jack when you account for fronto/QPF biases on the models. I'm just objectively trying to determine what is more likely....the Euro being 100% correct at the southern envelope of guidance, or somewhat of a compromise?

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Your extra 100-150 feet on that weenie hill compared to your old place may serve you well in this one. :lol:

I’ll do a weenie drive from my place to the old digs to compare.  You can see it with car temperatures every day 

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