4/17-18 snow threat

[CoastalWx]

I could see the Nam. Maybe more where Kevin is, but I’m sort of thinking high elevation pike north right now as best areas. Maybe euro will be right, but I could see a bump north. 

[Allsnow]

3k bumped north with a orh to @40/70 Benchmark jack 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Tossed... we euro 

[CoastalWx]

Soundings have good lift in the DGZ too. That would be nice in low elevations wherever that band sets up. There probably would not be a huge diff from low elevation to high elevation in that band. 

[NorEastermass128]

We NAM!

[Damage In Tolland]

Has it ever been right when it’s alone? Aren’t they getting rid of the NAM in June?

[SouthCoastMA]

the RGEM is sort of a compromise between the NAM and Euro, but it looked like it ticked slightly cooler at 12z. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

if you leave your freezer shut..it should be ok. 

Or just pack snow around the food!

[CoastalWx]

Here’s another thing to think about. The initial burst may come in with quite a thump. I know we talk about mid-level magic, but there seems to be a good warm advection push even in the snow growth areas which are fairly far to the south. It might be one of those things, where the mid-level magic just consists of some bands of light maybe moderate snow to the north of the track, after the initial burst.

[JC-CT]

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Has it ever been right when it’s alone? Aren’t they getting rid of the NAM in June?

When discussing plowable snowfall on 4/16, hedging north is not a bad move.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, NAM is still pretty torchy for CT/RI/SE MA....it is the northern outlier, but it has been fairly stubborn...it's not quite as far north as yesterday, but it is a little warmer than the 06z run, so no continued south trend.

We'll see what the RGEM says in a bit.

 

That's an impressive look though...really good fronto for the pike region and even up toward the NH border.

NAM was also way north with the Maine Blizzard 

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here’s another thing to think about. The initial burst may come in with quite a thump. I know we talk about mid-level magic, but there seems to be a good warm advection push even in the snow growth areas which are fairly far to the south. It might be one of those things, where the mid-level magic just consists of some bands of light maybe moderate snow to the north of the track, after the initial burst.

It looks like the mid-level stuff is what you describe, light to moderate snow that hangs back late in the game on the northern side. 

It could keep the snow going for hours later though, just like that lighter 0.04"/hr style stuff instead of the initial WAA 0.1/hr type water rates.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It looks like the mid-level stuff is what you describe, light to moderate snow that hangs back late in the game on the northern side. 

It could keep the snow going for hours later though, just like that lighter 0.04"/hr style stuff instead of the initial WAA 0.1/hr type water rates.

Days and days?

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I’d probably lean kuchie totals over 10:1 too

Rock and roll Kuchie koo

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Days and days?

Light stuff during the day in April is meh

[weathafella]

One more dance-hours of distraction from COVID-19 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Light stuff during the day in April is meh

Most snow in late Napril is. Stat pad. Hunch’s already gone 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most snow in late Napril is. Stat pad. Hunch’s already gone 

No way, a big 6 to 8 inch dumper after Mid April is not meh in any sense of the word,  its historical 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

No way, a big 6 to 8 inch dumper after Mid April is not meh in any sense of the word,  its historical 

Yeah even ORH at 1000 feet has only two events on record over 6" after 4/15. Ironically, both were blockbusters (12.7 in May '77 and 17.0 in Apr '87)

 

This one def has warning potential at ORH...but it could also end up as a sloppy 3-4" if rates aren't great. But the guidance seems to be coming in more impressive the last 18-24 hours, so we'll see.

[powderfreak]

Honestly, most of the snow maps are going to be too high and widespread... 10:1 is probably going to be hard to come by.  It is at night though, so hard to tell.

I do think the WxBell snow maps though do a lot of their figuring out based on 925mb temp, so the stuff along the southern edge is probably overdone.... much like it has in a lot of the events up north over the past month.

The snow maps over the last month seem to over-do the amounts in lower elevations and southern range of the snow progs the most.

That said, anything at 1kft it's probably pretty close.

[crossbowftw3]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Honestly, most of the snow maps are going to be too high and widespread... 10:1 is probably going to be hard to come by.  It is at night though, so hard to tell.

I do think the WxBell snow maps though do a lot of their figuring out based on 925mb temp, so the stuff along the southern edge is probably overdone.... much like it has in a lot of the events up north over the past month.

The snow maps over the last month seem to over-do the amounts in lower elevations and southern range of the snow progs the most.

That said, anything at 1kft it's probably pretty close.

I agree with this right down to a T. Right now I like the general idea of a 2-4/3-6 (lower elevations maybe not even 1-2) snow for most but the 6-8 is likely confined to higher peaks (generally >1.5k feet)

 

elevation dependent events always wind up this way. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Honestly, most of the snow maps are going to be too high and widespread... 10:1 is probably going to be hard to come by.  It is at night though, so hard to tell.

I do think the WxBell snow maps though do a lot of their figuring out based on 925mb temp, so the stuff along the southern edge is probably overdone.... much like it has in a lot of the events up north over the past month.

The snow maps over the last month seem to over-do the amounts in lower elevations and southern range of the snow progs the most.

That said, anything at 1kft it's probably pretty close.

925 cools pretty quick in ORH county over to Middlesex county N of pike to close to -2C...so I could see some ratios there being not too far under 10 to 1...esp if they are getting moderate to heavy snow for a time. For places a little further south where 925 is barely below 0C, then it's going to be isothermal paste.

So much is rate-dependent. When you're pounding 1/4 mile snow at 32F with -2 to -3C in the column between 900-925 and excellent lift in the DGZ above that, I've seen 15 to 1 easily during that time despite the near-freezing sfc temps. Obviously on the shoulders of each side of that period, you get lighter snows with lower ratios.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Honestly, most of the snow maps are going to be too high and widespread... 10:1 is probably going to be hard to come by.  It is at night though, so hard to tell.

I do think the WxBell snow maps though do a lot of their figuring out based on 925mb temp, so the stuff along the southern edge is probably overdone.... much like it has in a lot of the events up north over the past month.

The snow maps over the last month seem to over-do the amounts in lower elevations and southern range of the snow progs the most.

That said, anything at 1kft it's probably pretty close.

What you thinking here? 3-6”?

[wxeyeNH]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Honestly, most of the snow maps are going to be too high and widespread... 10:1 is probably going to be hard to come by.  It is at night though, so hard to tell.

I do think the WxBell snow maps though do a lot of their figuring out based on 925mb temp, so the stuff along the southern edge is probably overdone.... much like it has in a lot of the events up north over the past month.

The snow maps over the last month seem to over-do the amounts in lower elevations and southern range of the snow progs the most.

That said, anything at 1kft it's probably pretty close.

I need one or two more bumps to get me into the goods..

PF,  do you like the new Weatherbell layout?  I really like it now that I know how to use it.  

 

[powderfreak]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What you thinking here? 3-6”?

Yeah certainly 3+. 

It's really hard to argue with the EURO right now.  It has been locked and loaded for two straight days of runs now. 

I'd probably go down with that ship at this point.  It hasn't had one run that waivered way north or something.  Pretty much the same stripe across northern half of CT and then up to RT 2 in Mass for a band of 3"+.  I do think 1,000ft has that 6"+ shot if the QPF pans out as progged.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah certainly 3+. 

It's really hard to argue with the EURO right now.  It has been locked and loaded for two straight days of runs now. 

I'd probably go down with that ship at this point.  It hasn't had one run that waivered way north or something.  Pretty much the same stripe across northern half of CT and then up to RT 2 in Mass for a band of 3"+.  I do think 1,000ft has that 6"+ shot if the QPF pans out as progged.

I'd prob take the Euro and nudge it slightly north....I've seen it a bit too far south a several times this winter and it's the furthest south right now. The old 70/30 compromise.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

925 cools pretty quick in ORH county over to Middlesex county N of pike to close to -2C...so I could see some ratios there being not too far under 10 to 1...esp if they are getting moderate to heavy snow for a time. For places a little further south where 925 is barely below 0C, then it's going to be isothermal paste.

So much is rate-dependent. When you're pounding 1/4 mile snow at 32F with -2 to -3C in the column between 900-925 and excellent lift in the DGZ above that, I've seen 15 to 1 easily during that time despite the near-freezing sfc temps. Obviously on the shoulders of each side of that period, you get lighter snows with lower ratios.

Yeah for sure to the north.  I've sort of been looking a lot more at the Pike south and Kev area just for shits and giggles.

I do think Pike to RT 2 would have the best shot at near 10:1 ratios. 

Coolest looking prog though is tomorrow the residual cooling left in the wake of the system that rotates SE.

Can really see the "snow cooled" atmosphere relative to the larger Northeast picture at 925mb.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah certainly 3+. 

It's really hard to argue with the EURO right now.  It has been locked and loaded for two straight days of runs now. 

I'd probably go down with that ship at this point.  It hasn't had one run that waivered way north or something.  Pretty much the same stripe across northern half of CT and then up to RT 2 in Mass for a band of 3"+.  I do think 1,000ft has that 6"+ shot if the QPF pans out as progged.

I recall the Euro nailing the Maine snow last week and the NAM and GFS were too far north. Watch out for Messenger shuffle with this 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah for sure to the north.  I've sort of been looking a lot more at the Pike south and Kev area just for shits and giggles.

I do think Pike to RT 2 would have the best shot at near 10:1 ratios. 

Coolest looking prog though is tomorrow the residual cooling left in the wake of the system that rotates SE as winds come around from the NW. 

Can really see the "snow cooled" atmosphere relative to the larger Northeast picture at 925mb.

 

Basically if the euro is right... we get accumulating snow here... if anything else is right.... probably just garbage slush 

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I recall the Euro nailing the Maine snow last week and the NAM and GFS were too far north. Watch out for Messenger shuffle with this 

Bump north incoming.