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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's likely their forecast over their whole domain area and they forgot to run it with intersite coordination (ISC) on that pulls in the surrounding office forecasts.

Oops.

How the hell would you ever get to 1-2” for NYC on any domain area?

Even if you don’t pull from surrounding offices, what data would you load in to get those totals?

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53 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Man HRRR keeps coming south pretty significantly every single run. 20Z rolling now and it looks like it's going to be south again.

 

93383272_1452418904960798_8930335648133414912_n.jpg

Now THAT distribution looks like a recipe for a paste job in my hood. Also always so noticeable how the HRRR actually knows the elevations.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

How the hell would you ever get to 1-2” for NYC on any domain area?

Even if you don’t pull from surrounding offices, what data would you load in to get those totals?

Because that stuff happens outside of your CWA and sometimes even hidden behind ISC you may never notice. Technically I have the ability to forecast all the way to CAR, but I never look at what I'm forecasting up there because it doesn't get sent anywhere. UNLESS you create an image off your whole domain. 

So it could have been that they chose the coldest guidance for their area which affected NYC, or had too much QPF in an hour that had rain and snow at NYC, etc. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Because that stuff happens outside of your CWA and sometimes even hidden behind ISC you may never notice. Technically I have the ability to forecast all the way to CAR, but I never look at what I'm forecasting up there because it doesn't get sent anywhere. UNLESS you create an image off your whole domain. 

So it could have been that they chose the coldest guidance for their area which affected NYC, or had too much QPF in an hour that had rain and snow at NYC, etc. 

Ahh gotcha.  So you manipulate the guidance for your local area and that might have some odd side effects elsewhere...but it doesn’t matter because no one will ever see it?  Interesting, I didn’t know it worked like that.  

I find it fascinating how you guys populate grids and make forecasts.

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1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Think BOX will bust with their 3"-4" for BOS.

I'll never criticize the NWS again if Logan reports over 3"

Not happening along the immediate coast

If the goodies moved in from the south, they could. It's not temps vs as much as getting the intense lift. I am thinking 1-3 for the terminal. Probably 2ish.

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m surprised box hasn’t taken em down for N ORH County 

currier n Ives must be on the way 

I wouldn’t take them down. They are on the qpf gradient and too frequently that area gets a weenie fronto band. Higher bust potential up near rt 2 though. 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Ahh gotcha.  So you manipulate the guidance for your local area and that might have some odd side effects elsewhere...but it doesn’t matter because no one will ever see it?  Interesting, I didn’t know it worked like that.  

I find it fascinating how you guys populate grids and make forecasts.

Basically. Our products and web images all cut off a few miles outside our CWA borders, so it's no man's land beyond that. For instance we have a tool that pulls in CAR's snow forecast in case we have to make a statewide map. We don't want to accidentally pull in our own forecast for their area. Because sometimes we do disagree. ;)

1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Think BOX will bust with their 3"-4" for BOS.

I'll never criticize the NWS again if Logan reports over 3"

Not happening along the immediate coast

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

If the goodies moved in from the south, they could. It's not temps vs as much as getting the intense lift. I am thinking 1-3 for the terminal. Probably 2ish.

Yeah, if the lifts get in there it should be able to pound down 3 no problem. 

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Hey Scott, do you think the south trending models of the 12z and 18z runs are full of it and Cape Cod gets nothing, or do we cool enough for evaporation cooling and we get an all snow event.  Latest models show intense lift of -20 to -24 units of omega in the snow growth zone.  That lasts for a good four to six hours.

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Hey Scott, do you think the south trending models of the 12z and 18z runs are full of it and Cape Cod gets nothing, or do we cool enough for evaporation cooling and we get an all snow event.  Latest models show intense lift of -20 to -24 units of omega in the snow growth zone.  That lasts for a good four to six hours.

Yeah you’ll flip to snow I think. You may flip back to rain after 5a or so, but I could see a thump as modeled. 

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