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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Looks like a parade of poop through the end of the month. 

But the soundings look pretty decent around 06z tonight. I like seeing those lapse rates start to approach moist adiabatic in the DGZ and above. 

This is going to surprise...even down in the valleys. Somewhere in the hills though get 7-10'' I bet. 

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z.  

HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass.  

This will be interesting.  Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact. 

334B6B0D-E0BF-4BFA-AE13-CEFB0B172520.thumb.png.03e7fd225689d84ba5482ecead3cd456.png

Ha, brutal little hole over Keene, NH. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You may be in a good spot. I do wonder if the mesos may be jumping a bit. I'd probably stay the course with the euro. 

Yeah I don’t buy the 7-9” totals that some of them are showing. I think 3-6” is a solid call, which would still be amazing for this late in the season.

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5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yeah I don’t buy the 7-9” totals that some of them are showing. I think 3-6” is a solid call, which would still be amazing for this late in the season.

Yeah the 10:1 stuff won't happen in many areas. Perhaps the areas near 1K could do it for a time, but it will take time to flip it to snow, and then have it cool enough for accumulation.

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Can someone explain what in the world is this? How did we go from zero in S CT to 4-6 all the way down the shore with 6-8 lollis over my area and even 1-2 in NYC? This is expected snowfall not 1 in 10 chance either?

What the what?

 

StormTotalSnowWeb1_NYMACTVT.png

Must be an error

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Can someone explain what in the world is this? How did we go from zero in S CT to 4-6 all the way down the shore with 6-8 lollis over my area and even 1-2 in NYC? This is expected snowfall not 1 in 10 chance either?

What the what?

That's likely their forecast over their whole domain area and they forgot to run it with intersite coordination (ISC) on that pulls in the surrounding office forecasts.

Oops.

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