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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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8 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

This is starting to look good down here.

 

 

Agreed.  We’ve seen models trend worse for us throughout this season.  This has gone the other way, improving as we get closer.  Thes early 18z runs look interesting.  This looks like a flash over to a paster for 6-8hrs.

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

18z NAM sounding near BDL tonight. Man crazy to think....posting soundings for winter wx now and in a month we'll probably be posting soundings for severe wx hahaha

2020041718_NAM_012_41.85,-72.56_winter_ml.png

That is sick isothermal... shit that looks like it’s starting from above 850mb and staying the same all the way to the surface...  That’s almost like isothermal from 825!

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16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Agreed.  We’ve seen models trend worse for us throughout this season.  This has gone the other way, improving as we get closer.  Thes early 18z runs look interesting.  This looks like a flash over to a paster for 6-8hrs.

The 3k NAM is quite the paste job

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

It is and in normal winter modeling the actual snowfall Jack zones will be north of where modeling shows it.  

It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z.  

HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass.  

This will be interesting.  Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact. 

334B6B0D-E0BF-4BFA-AE13-CEFB0B172520.thumb.png.03e7fd225689d84ba5482ecead3cd456.png

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Just now, powderfreak said:

It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z.  

HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass.  

This will be interesting.  Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact. 

334B6B0D-E0BF-4BFA-AE13-CEFB0B172520.thumb.png.03e7fd225689d84ba5482ecead3cd456.png

Oh for sure, I’m not expecting a 10:1 snow.  We’re lucky to get in winter.  Seeing 3-4” in late April around here is a rare event so my interest is piqued for that.

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3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Even in the second half of April, the Messenger ticks steal my snow.

I saw that you were the last poster in the thread and my first thought was “What did MPM find to Eeyore this threat when he’s looking prime in ORH...?”  

At least keep that glass of Diet Coke half full!

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z.  

HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass.  

This will be interesting.  Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact. 

334B6B0D-E0BF-4BFA-AE13-CEFB0B172520.thumb.png.03e7fd225689d84ba5482ecead3cd456.png

6-8”?

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Oh for sure, I’m not expecting a 10:1 snow.  We’re lucky to get in winter.  Seeing 3-4” in late April around here is a rare event so my interest is piqued for that.

It should be interesting to see it shake out.  

The diurnal timing is perfect for some really late climo-wise snowfall in spots outside the hills.

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43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol yea true but they probably average more than many spots in NNE at similar elevation 

Maybe, or maybe not.  Norfolk, CT co-op is at 1340'.  Maine has no co-ops that high (and little such terrain) until one gets into the western mountains. 

Snowfall comparisons for 1981-2010

Norfolk (1340)  79.1"
Long Falls Dam (1161)  105.1"
Eustis (1260)  122.8"

Can't speak for similar elevation snowfall in VT/NH. 

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18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

18z NAM sounding near BDL tonight. Man crazy to think....posting soundings for winter wx now and in a month we'll probably be posting soundings for severe wx hahaha

Looks like a parade of poop through the end of the month. 

But the soundings look pretty decent around 06z tonight. I like seeing those lapse rates start to approach moist adiabatic in the DGZ and above. 

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That is sick isothermal... shit that looks like it’s starting from above 850mb and staying the same all the way to the surface...  That’s almost like isothermal from 825!

That has a classic look of latent heat of melting (cooling process) right there. Just drilling the column down to freezing even though it wants to be warmer. 

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