Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Bring the WSW south of 90 BOX 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol yea true but they probably average more than many spots in NNE at similar elevation lol wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Stop. It's the NW hills, as god made it Yeah, what he said... (wait, wut?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Nice deep DGZ and you can kinda picture where the best fronto will develop and traverse...it's really going to rip later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 BOX tosses south for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, CarverWX said: This is starting to look good down here. Agreed. We’ve seen models trend worse for us throughout this season. This has gone the other way, improving as we get closer. Thes early 18z runs look interesting. This looks like a flash over to a paster for 6-8hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Yeah, I am almost ready to set my alarm for 4 just to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 If I didn't have kids, I'd be up...lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 18z NAM sounding near BDL tonight. Man crazy to think....posting soundings for winter wx now and in a month we'll probably be posting soundings for severe wx hahaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If I didn't have kids, I'd be up...lol. Any changes ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 18z NAM sounding near BDL tonight. Man crazy to think....posting soundings for winter wx now and in a month we'll probably be posting soundings for severe wx hahaha That is sick isothermal... shit that looks like it’s starting from above 850mb and staying the same all the way to the surface... That’s almost like isothermal from 825! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Agreed. We’ve seen models trend worse for us throughout this season. This has gone the other way, improving as we get closer. Thes early 18z runs look interesting. This looks like a flash over to a paster for 6-8hrs. The 3k NAM is quite the paste job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If I didn't have kids, I'd be up...lol. My 10 year old gets up at 5-5:30am no mater what. My 7 year old likes his sleep so i don't have to worry about him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: The 3k NAM is quite the paste job It is and in normal winter modeling the actual snowfall Jack zones will be north of where modeling shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 6 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nope.... locked in.... 3-5” if we thump hard That's what she said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, CarverWX said: My 10 year old gets up at 5-5:30am no mater what. My 7 year old likes his sleep so i don't have to worry about him. Oh yeah by 6a I am up. But it's tough to get up at 2-3 and weenie out unless it's a doozy. Maybe I will anyways..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: It is and in normal winter modeling the actual snowfall Jack zones will be north of where modeling shows it. It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z. HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass. This will be interesting. Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Even in the second half of April, the Messenger ticks steal my snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z. HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass. This will be interesting. Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact. Oh for sure, I’m not expecting a 10:1 snow. We’re lucky to get in winter. Seeing 3-4” in late April around here is a rare event so my interest is piqued for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Even in the second half of April, the Messenger ticks steal my snow. I saw that you were the last poster in the thread and my first thought was “What did MPM find to Eeyore this threat when he’s looking prime in ORH...?” At least keep that glass of Diet Coke half full! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z. HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass. This will be interesting. Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact. 6-8”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Man HRRR keeps coming south pretty significantly every single run. 20Z rolling now and it looks like it's going to be south again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Oh for sure, I’m not expecting a 10:1 snow. We’re lucky to get in winter. Seeing 3-4” in late April around here is a rare event so my interest is piqued for that. It should be interesting to see it shake out. The diurnal timing is perfect for some really late climo-wise snowfall in spots outside the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol yea true but they probably average more than many spots in NNE at similar elevation Maybe, or maybe not. Norfolk, CT co-op is at 1340'. Maine has no co-ops that high (and little such terrain) until one gets into the western mountains. Snowfall comparisons for 1981-2010 Norfolk (1340) 79.1" Long Falls Dam (1161) 105.1" Eustis (1260) 122.8" Can't speak for similar elevation snowfall in VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Man HRRR keeps coming south pretty significantly every single run. 20Z rolling now and it looks like it's going to be south again. Making a bee-line for a GON jack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 18z NAM sounding near BDL tonight. Man crazy to think....posting soundings for winter wx now and in a month we'll probably be posting soundings for severe wx hahaha Looks like a parade of poop through the end of the month. But the soundings look pretty decent around 06z tonight. I like seeing those lapse rates start to approach moist adiabatic in the DGZ and above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, OceanStWx said: Looks like a parade of poop through the end of the month. But the soundings look pretty decent around 06z tonight. I like seeing those lapse rates start to approach moist adiabatic in the DGZ and above. 1:00 am ish around here for TSSN? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 I think this is the first warning of the season for here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That is sick isothermal... shit that looks like it’s starting from above 850mb and staying the same all the way to the surface... That’s almost like isothermal from 825! That has a classic look of latent heat of melting (cooling process) right there. Just drilling the column down to freezing even though it wants to be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Man HRRR keeps coming south pretty significantly every single run. 20Z rolling now and it looks like it's going to be south again. Classic Swansea Somerset jackpot there 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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