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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

No one in New England has ever had any experience with that sort of outcome, lol. 

What a classic statement... "the fronto banding overperformed further north..."

Def a known bias...model qpf tends to put the max a little south of where the best ML fronto actually is. They become a little low-level happy. But most of SNE is going to rip at some point in this as the fronto stuff comes in from southwest to northeast. It may linger a bit longer up north though as it deforms out.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def a known bias...model qpf tends to put the max a little south of where the best ML fronto actually is. They become a little low-level happy. But most of SNE is going to rip at some point in this as the fronto stuff comes in from southwest to northeast. It may linger a bit longer up north though as it deforms out.

Yeah I wasn’t even thinking about the current system but it is just an absolute classic post-mortem statement with winter storms.  

With no real data to back this up, except my own experiences being on the edge so many times, it just seems the “surprise band” likes to set up on the QPF gradient.  Like that zone in a winter storm that goes from 1.0”+ to 0.3” QPF with the tightly packed QPF lines... that mid level magic likes to end up in that modeled gradient.  

 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

This is great

 

 

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Rookie question, I remember a topic on here at times has been the best is 30-50 miles N/NW of modeled. Still apply?

I was surprised to see the Burlington NWS forecast for southern VT being higher than most models. Would feed into that idea. 

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Just now, PowderBeard said:

Rookie question, I remember a topic on here at times has been the best is 30-50 miles N/NW of modeled. Still apply?

I was surprised to see the Burlington NWS forecast for southern VT being higher than most models. Would feed into that idea. 

BTV doesn’t forecast for the SVT counties.... those are ALY’s.

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Just now, PowderBeard said:

Rookie question, I remember a topic on here at times has been the best is 30-50 miles N/NW of modeled. Still apply?

I was surprised to see the Burlington NWS forecast for southern VT being higher than most models. Would feed into that idea. 

Probably a better question for Will, Ryan, or Scott or the other more knowledgeable winter posters but I think that does apply but I'm not so sure if that's the case in a situation like this. I think the 30-50 miles NW is usually in association with like 850 or 700 lows and how the dynamics work with that. In this instance the heavy banding is really going to be tied into the zone of best frontogenesis so banding should match up with that pretty well. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

Should be a nice high terrain interior Mass jack. Looks a tick warmer/north than 00z, but it only really affects those on the southern fringe. Looks good Pike-north for a hefty thump. Still thankfully a low QPF event up here.

Haha, this post was definitely designed to trigger Tolland residents.

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