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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM I feel has been pretty consistent with this...quite similar to the Euro. I was buying this pretty good which is why I went aggressive with my map yesterday. Been pretty impressied with the NAM soundings at BDL

 

snow map1a.png

 

But ma sun angle!  All seriousness I absolutely agree with this. I wouldn't be surprised to see Norfolk,CT report 8-10" and Massif north to the Hub doing 6-8". 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hard to go against the Euro on this with its consistency while other models even hi res have had wild fluctuations. We horse 

I agree. 

Ride that thing to it’s death at this point.  It’s been now almost 3 days of very little movement on the Euro output.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agree. 

Ride that thing to it’s death at this point.  It’s been now almost 3 days of very little movement on the Euro output.

 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man what a pounding 90 south 


QtwrKUm.png

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Euro did well up here with that snow last week, Hammering this area for several runs, I certainly wouldn't discount it.

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah Ginx and I were discussing that . As I recall the NCEP models weren’t far enough south right? 

Nam was all over the place from run to run, And the GFS, Well..........Late at usual, Yes, We got the messenger tics.

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Haven't been here in a while, but it looks like a legit snow event is on the way, even if it's most likely a few inches.

Does northern RI ever get legit advisory events in the second half of April, other than that freak May storm in the late 70s? Because I never thought I'd see anything this late.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

 

Euro did well up here with that snow last week, Hammering this area for several runs, I certainly wouldn't discount it.

It did best up here in that late March event too.  Constantly showing a solid northern event here while other models had very little if anything... then all the ASOS were reporting M1/4 +SN with 5-10”.  It’s still the best model.

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13 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Big snow totals for DVN CWA for sure! I saw 9" around BRL. 

You may luck out based on the forecast soundings keeping the wet bulbs generally at or below zero for at least a good chunk of the event. We had about the worst case scenario last Thursday with rain to heavy, wet snow that all stuck to the trees with wet bulbs around +1. 

Fwiw, here's my report from Indiana.  The storm underperformed some here with only a few inches.  The rain/snow line crept a bit farther north than progged (never rained here though) and the fronto banding sort of overperformed farther north in northern IL.  Heaviest amounts were progged to be south of I-80 but it seems like they ended up north of I-80.  Not claiming this will mean anything downstream for you guys. 

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Fwiw, here's my report from Indiana.  The storm underperformed some here with only a few inches.  The rain/snow line crept a bit farther north than progged (never rained here though) and the fronto banding sort of overperformed farther north in northern IL.  Heaviest amounts were progged to be south of I-80 but it seems like they ended up north of I-80.  Not claiming this will mean anything downstream for you guys. 

No one in New England has ever had any experience with that sort of outcome, lol. 

What a classic statement... "the fronto banding overperformed further north..."

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