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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hey there Oceanstwx.  I'm sure you noticed that your old DVN cwa is getting hit pretty good from this storm.  :snowing:

Your post is helpful to me bc I've been trying to gauge how much of a tree problem this may be imby.  I have zero experience with a snow of this magnitude this late in the season.  Leaf out has just begun around here and expecting about 5-6" of heavy, wet snow.  

Big snow totals for DVN CWA for sure! I saw 9" around BRL. 

You may luck out based on the forecast soundings keeping the wet bulbs generally at or below zero for at least a good chunk of the event. We had about the worst case scenario last Thursday with rain to heavy, wet snow that all stuck to the trees with wet bulbs around +1. 

41 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Seems like the 3km NAM is a bit torchier than than 12km version down this way. 

12km looked pretty isothermal in northern CT. 

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Yeah reggie is decent, Looks like it's just beefier like Ineedsnow said. The front end on this thing is rather intense for about 4 hrs or so. Sometimes in these systems, the slot comes in fast, but you can see on 700 and 500 that you have this narrow tongue of good warm air advection and moisture advection moving in. Very evident when looking at the VV products. It then fans out and deforms, giving you this burst of precip on the nose of this. Sometimes the elements are convective and nature and areas end up doing very well in the meat of the heavies. You want good rates in April, and this looks like it could do it. Even areas near the Cape will probably snow before ending as some rain as rates lessen and it warms up near 850. 

It may take an hour or two in the low spots, but it should flash over in many areas near 5z-6z (1-2a).

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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks good for MA, though I think NW and NE hills pull that straight line into “saggy boobs” tomorrow night and get into the 3-6 range. Especially for NW CT, there’s some elevations near 2K up there.

 I’m totally missing out on this one and so are most in CT river valley. Well hopefully I’ll get to do one more map for this anomalous event before the season is over.

I still have one event I missed that I have to catch up on, I think it was around March 23ish. 

 

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1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looks good for MA, though I think NW and NE hills pull that straight line into “saggy boobs” tomorrow night and get into the 3-6 range. Especially for NW CT, there’s some elevations near 2K up there.

 I’m totally missing out on this one and so are most in CT river valley. Well hopefully I’ll get to do one more map for this anomalous event before the season is over.

I still have one event I missed that I have to catch up on, I think it was around March 23ish. 

 

Could be more than 3" in the highest spots of CT....we'll  see...

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That map is overdone imho at least for my area.

They are all over done, all the snow maps.  Widespread 10:1 ratios like its falling on frozen ground ain’t happening... but you can see the general highlighted areas of a given model run, just don’t take the values verbatim.   The maps are the most over-done in the lower elevations and marginal thermal areas.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

They are all over done, all the snow maps.  Widespread 10:1 ratios like its falling on frozen ground ain’t happening... but you can see the general highlighted areas of a given model run, just don’t take the values verbatim.   The maps are the most over-done in the lower elevations and marginal thermal areas.

Are you telling me locking in the HRDPS snow map this morning was a bad idea? Well a man can dream

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