powderfreak Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:37 PM, OceanStWx said: That's likely their forecast over their whole domain area and they forgot to run it with intersite coordination (ISC) on that pulls in the surrounding office forecasts. Oops. Expand How the hell would you ever get to 1-2” for NYC on any domain area? Even if you don’t pull from surrounding offices, what data would you load in to get those totals? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Setting alarm for 1:00 Expand If you are serious ..That is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 8:54 PM, The 4 Seasons said: Man HRRR keeps coming south pretty significantly every single run. 20Z rolling now and it looks like it's going to be south again. Expand Now THAT distribution looks like a recipe for a paste job in my hood. Also always so noticeable how the HRRR actually knows the elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:44 PM, powderfreak said: How the hell would you ever get to 1-2” for NYC on any domain area? Even if you don’t pull from surrounding offices, what data would you load in to get those totals? Expand Because that stuff happens outside of your CWA and sometimes even hidden behind ISC you may never notice. Technically I have the ability to forecast all the way to CAR, but I never look at what I'm forecasting up there because it doesn't get sent anywhere. UNLESS you create an image off your whole domain. So it could have been that they chose the coldest guidance for their area which affected NYC, or had too much QPF in an hour that had rain and snow at NYC, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Think BOX will bust with their 3"-4" for BOS. I'll never criticize the NWS again if Logan reports over 3" Not happening along the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:50 PM, OceanStWx said: Because that stuff happens outside of your CWA and sometimes even hidden behind ISC you may never notice. Technically I have the ability to forecast all the way to CAR, but I never look at what I'm forecasting up there because it doesn't get sent anywhere. UNLESS you create an image off your whole domain. So it could have been that they chose the coldest guidance for their area which affected NYC, or had too much QPF in an hour that had rain and snow at NYC, etc. Expand Ahh gotcha. So you manipulate the guidance for your local area and that might have some odd side effects elsewhere...but it doesn’t matter because no one will ever see it? Interesting, I didn’t know it worked like that. I find it fascinating how you guys populate grids and make forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:44 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: If you are serious ..That is awesome Expand I’m always up for exciting ones. Going to bed around 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:50 PM, JC-CT said: Now THAT distribution looks like a recipe for a paste job in my hood. Also always so noticeable how the HRRR actually knows the elevations. Expand White noise to sleep or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:53 PM, BombsAway1288 said: Think BOX will bust with their 3"-4" for BOS. I'll never criticize the NWS again if Logan reports over 3" Not happening along the immediate coast Expand If the goodies moved in from the south, they could. It's not temps vs as much as getting the intense lift. I am thinking 1-3 for the terminal. Probably 2ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:53 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I’m always up for exciting ones. Going to bed around 8 Expand You haven't seen 6" before? I know some in your immediate family have not. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:44 PM, powderfreak said: How the hell would you ever get to 1-2” for NYC on any domain area? Even if you don’t pull from surrounding offices, what data would you load in to get those totals? Expand Cocaine is a hell of a drug Rick James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:44 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m surprised box hasn’t taken em down for N ORH County currier n Ives must be on the way Expand I wouldn’t take them down. They are on the qpf gradient and too frequently that area gets a weenie fronto band. Higher bust potential up near rt 2 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:56 PM, CoastalWx said: You haven't seen 6" before? I know some in your immediate family have not. Expand Man are you mad at me today. What did I do? Just looking forward to 6-9” and TSSN. Sorry for being excited 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:53 PM, powderfreak said: Ahh gotcha. So you manipulate the guidance for your local area and that might have some odd side effects elsewhere...but it doesn’t matter because no one will ever see it? Interesting, I didn’t know it worked like that. I find it fascinating how you guys populate grids and make forecasts. Expand Basically. Our products and web images all cut off a few miles outside our CWA borders, so it's no man's land beyond that. For instance we have a tool that pulls in CAR's snow forecast in case we have to make a statewide map. We don't want to accidentally pull in our own forecast for their area. Because sometimes we do disagree. On 4/17/2020 at 9:53 PM, BombsAway1288 said: Think BOX will bust with their 3"-4" for BOS. I'll never criticize the NWS again if Logan reports over 3" Not happening along the immediate coast Expand On 4/17/2020 at 9:55 PM, CoastalWx said: If the goodies moved in from the south, they could. It's not temps vs as much as getting the intense lift. I am thinking 1-3 for the terminal. Probably 2ish. Expand Yeah, if the lifts get in there it should be able to pound down 3 no problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:56 PM, CoastalWx said: You haven't seen 6" before? I know some in your immediate family have not. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 20z HRRR for BDL...even getting a -20 of omega to pop up!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:57 PM, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn’t take them down. They are on the qpf gradient and too frequently that area gets a weenie fronto band. Higher bust potential up near rt 2 though. Expand Ginx roof collapsing while Ray and Pickles wake up to a sloppy coating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 10:05 PM, weatherwiz said: 20z HRRR for BDL...even getting a -20 of omega to pop up!!!! Expand Tonight could be sweet. Set my alarm for 1 but might just stay up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Checking in from BGM CWA...still only expecting 2-4" at my lower elevation location but all of that is gonna come over the next six hours. If I hear thundersnow at my house y'all be better be ready, lol You guys look to be in a much more better spot than me on this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Man are you mad at me today. What did I do? Just looking forward to 6-9” and TSSN. Sorry for being excited Expand I think 5-7. Maybe emphasis 6-7. I think it slots quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Maybe this shifts to Long Island sound lol . That would be 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Do I in Cumberland at 350’ Honestly have a chance at 4”?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 10:20 PM, TheSnowman said: Do I in Cumberland at 350’ Honestly have a chance at 4”?? Expand Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 10:18 PM, CoastalWx said: I think 5-7. Maybe emphasis 6-7. I think it slots quick. Expand Power issues or too powdery ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 10:18 PM, CoastalWx said: I think 5-7. Maybe emphasis 6-7. I think it slots quick. Expand Doesn’t matter, once he gets to the 4-5 range the limbs will come crashing down; lawn thread will be converted to tree removal thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Hrrr is interesting but it always seems to be for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Hey Scott, do you think the south trending models of the 12z and 18z runs are full of it and Cape Cod gets nothing, or do we cool enough for evaporation cooling and we get an all snow event. Latest models show intense lift of -20 to -24 units of omega in the snow growth zone. That lasts for a good four to six hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 10:21 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Power issues or too powdery ? Expand Might be some issues since you are mild near 925. Not sure why you want that with lots of food going to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 10:24 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Hey Scott, do you think the south trending models of the 12z and 18z runs are full of it and Cape Cod gets nothing, or do we cool enough for evaporation cooling and we get an all snow event. Latest models show intense lift of -20 to -24 units of omega in the snow growth zone. That lasts for a good four to six hours. Expand Yeah you’ll flip to snow I think. You may flip back to rain after 5a or so, but I could see a thump as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 10:27 PM, CoastalWx said: Might be some issues since you are mild near 925. Not sure why you want that with lots of food going to waste. Expand I bought bags of ice for the windstorm in case we lost it, so that’s not an issue. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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