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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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  On 4/17/2020 at 8:33 PM, weatherwiz said:

18z NAM sounding near BDL tonight. Man crazy to think....posting soundings for winter wx now and in a month we'll probably be posting soundings for severe wx hahaha

2020041718_NAM_012_41.85,-72.56_winter_ml.png

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That is sick isothermal... shit that looks like it’s starting from above 850mb and staying the same all the way to the surface...  That’s almost like isothermal from 825!

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  On 4/17/2020 at 8:44 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

It is and in normal winter modeling the actual snowfall Jack zones will be north of where modeling shows it.  

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It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z.  

HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass.  

This will be interesting.  Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact. 

334B6B0D-E0BF-4BFA-AE13-CEFB0B172520.thumb.png.03e7fd225689d84ba5482ecead3cd456.png

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  On 4/17/2020 at 8:48 PM, powderfreak said:

It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z.  

HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass.  

This will be interesting.  Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact. 

334B6B0D-E0BF-4BFA-AE13-CEFB0B172520.thumb.png.03e7fd225689d84ba5482ecead3cd456.png

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Oh for sure, I’m not expecting a 10:1 snow.  We’re lucky to get in winter.  Seeing 3-4” in late April around here is a rare event so my interest is piqued for that.

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  On 4/17/2020 at 8:49 PM, moneypitmike said:

Even in the second half of April, the Messenger ticks steal my snow.

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I saw that you were the last poster in the thread and my first thought was “What did MPM find to Eeyore this threat when he’s looking prime in ORH...?”  

At least keep that glass of Diet Coke half full!

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  On 4/17/2020 at 8:48 PM, powderfreak said:

It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z.  

HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass.  

This will be interesting.  Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact. 

334B6B0D-E0BF-4BFA-AE13-CEFB0B172520.thumb.png.03e7fd225689d84ba5482ecead3cd456.png

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6-8”?

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  On 4/17/2020 at 8:51 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Oh for sure, I’m not expecting a 10:1 snow.  We’re lucky to get in winter.  Seeing 3-4” in late April around here is a rare event so my interest is piqued for that.

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It should be interesting to see it shake out.  

The diurnal timing is perfect for some really late climo-wise snowfall in spots outside the hills.

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  On 4/17/2020 at 8:04 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Lol yea true but they probably average more than many spots in NNE at similar elevation 

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Maybe, or maybe not.  Norfolk, CT co-op is at 1340'.  Maine has no co-ops that high (and little such terrain) until one gets into the western mountains. 

Snowfall comparisons for 1981-2010

Norfolk (1340)  79.1"
Long Falls Dam (1161)  105.1"
Eustis (1260)  122.8"

Can't speak for similar elevation snowfall in VT/NH. 

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  On 4/17/2020 at 8:33 PM, weatherwiz said:

18z NAM sounding near BDL tonight. Man crazy to think....posting soundings for winter wx now and in a month we'll probably be posting soundings for severe wx hahaha

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Looks like a parade of poop through the end of the month. 

But the soundings look pretty decent around 06z tonight. I like seeing those lapse rates start to approach moist adiabatic in the DGZ and above. 

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  On 4/17/2020 at 8:40 PM, powderfreak said:

That is sick isothermal... shit that looks like it’s starting from above 850mb and staying the same all the way to the surface...  That’s almost like isothermal from 825!

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That has a classic look of latent heat of melting (cooling process) right there. Just drilling the column down to freezing even though it wants to be warmer. 

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