PowderBeard Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Looks like the HRRR trending colder for central CT and up the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: No one in New England has ever had any experience with that sort of outcome, lol. What a classic statement... "the fronto banding overperformed further north..." Def a known bias...model qpf tends to put the max a little south of where the best ML fronto actually is. They become a little low-level happy. But most of SNE is going to rip at some point in this as the fronto stuff comes in from southwest to northeast. It may linger a bit longer up north though as it deforms out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Looks like the HRRR trending colder for central CT and up the valley. Every piece of guidance has trended south and colder to Euro today for a pike south jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def a known bias...model qpf tends to put the max a little south of where the best ML fronto actually is. They become a little low-level happy. But most of SNE is going to rip at some point in this as the fronto stuff comes in from southwest to northeast. It may linger a bit longer up north though as it deforms out. Yeah I wasn’t even thinking about the current system but it is just an absolute classic post-mortem statement with winter storms. With no real data to back this up, except my own experiences being on the edge so many times, it just seems the “surprise band” likes to set up on the QPF gradient. Like that zone in a winter storm that goes from 1.0”+ to 0.3” QPF with the tightly packed QPF lines... that mid level magic likes to end up in that modeled gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Reggie came south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Drunk? we told him to prep the genny Still waiting to lose power, something you told me would happen about a dozen times in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every piece of guidance has trended south and colder to Euro today for a pike south jack colder =/= jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 This is great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Euro looked like it mostly held serve vs 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Euro looks a tiny bit north. Sweet spot near ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: This is great Rookie question, I remember a topic on here at times has been the best is 30-50 miles N/NW of modeled. Still apply? I was surprised to see the Burlington NWS forecast for southern VT being higher than most models. Would feed into that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Reggie came south That is a pretty decent tick South for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PowderBeard said: Rookie question, I remember a topic on here at times has been the best is 30-50 miles N/NW of modeled. Still apply? I was surprised to see the Burlington NWS forecast for southern VT being higher than most models. Would feed into that idea. BTV doesn’t forecast for the SVT counties.... those are ALY’s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 No I wont back down, gonna stand my ground.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 I'll gladly take the thump because we'll need it. Currier and Ives deformation won't cut it in April near sea level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PowderBeard said: Rookie question, I remember a topic on here at times has been the best is 30-50 miles N/NW of modeled. Still apply? I was surprised to see the Burlington NWS forecast for southern VT being higher than most models. Would feed into that idea. Probably a better question for Will, Ryan, or Scott or the other more knowledgeable winter posters but I think that does apply but I'm not so sure if that's the case in a situation like this. I think the 30-50 miles NW is usually in association with like 850 or 700 lows and how the dynamics work with that. In this instance the heavy banding is really going to be tied into the zone of best frontogenesis so banding should match up with that pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: No I wont back down, gonna stand my ground.. Amazing how it’s been so consistent for 4 -5 days of that jack area . Dead nuts run after run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Thumper dumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Cut back slightly here, but still around 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Euro looks good here... most guidance at 12z offering at least 3” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Need a. Rpm fix.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 WE SNOW BEYOND EXCITED!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll gladly take the thump because we'll need it. Currier and Ives deformation won't cut it in April near sea level. You'll take the thump and you'll like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Need a. Rpm fix.... Slightly less than earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 I think I have a force field around me. Several inches down to the Cape and scraps for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Should be a nice high terrain interior Mass jack. Looks a tick warmer/north than 00z, but it only really affects those on the southern fringe. Looks good Pike-north for a hefty thump. Still thankfully a low QPF event up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Should be a nice high terrain interior Mass jack. Looks a tick warmer/north than 00z, but it only really affects those on the southern fringe. Looks good Pike-north for a hefty thump. Still thankfully a low QPF event up here. Haha, this post was definitely designed to trigger Tolland residents. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Wait a second, I haven’t seen a “meh” post from our man in Hubbardston yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 The CT/RI snows could be like waterlogged paste....3-4" could really start causing some issues. Looking at those 925mb temps at 6z...it's close call so it's gonna be wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Haha, this post was definitely designed to trigger Tolland residents. There’s a few of them that can’t stand when on occasion this area jacks, yet we root those areas on everytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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