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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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  On 4/17/2020 at 2:35 PM, weatherwiz said:

The NAM I feel has been pretty consistent with this...quite similar to the Euro. I was buying this pretty good which is why I went aggressive with my map yesterday. Been pretty impressied with the NAM soundings at BDL

 

snow map1a.png

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But ma sun angle!  All seriousness I absolutely agree with this. I wouldn't be surprised to see Norfolk,CT report 8-10" and Massif north to the Hub doing 6-8". 

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  On 4/17/2020 at 2:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the BDL sounding at 1am on the 3km NAM....look at that crosshair sig on the omega plus the really deep MAUL

 

Apr17_12zNAM3km_BDL.png

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NAM has really loved this idea. NAM usually does excellent with these ideas too. Hard to keep clothes on viewing that 

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  On 4/17/2020 at 3:30 PM, powderfreak said:

I agree. 

Ride that thing to it’s death at this point.  It’s been now almost 3 days of very little movement on the Euro output.

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  On 4/17/2020 at 3:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Man what a pounding 90 south 


QtwrKUm.png

YFjeoj8.png

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Euro did well up here with that snow last week, Hammering this area for several runs, I certainly wouldn't discount it.

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Haven't been here in a while, but it looks like a legit snow event is on the way, even if it's most likely a few inches.

Does northern RI ever get legit advisory events in the second half of April, other than that freak May storm in the late 70s? Because I never thought I'd see anything this late.

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  On 4/17/2020 at 3:36 PM, dryslot said:

 

Euro did well up here with that snow last week, Hammering this area for several runs, I certainly wouldn't discount it.

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It did best up here in that late March event too.  Constantly showing a solid northern event here while other models had very little if anything... then all the ASOS were reporting M1/4 +SN with 5-10”.  It’s still the best model.

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  On 4/17/2020 at 3:07 AM, OceanStWx said:

Big snow totals for DVN CWA for sure! I saw 9" around BRL. 

You may luck out based on the forecast soundings keeping the wet bulbs generally at or below zero for at least a good chunk of the event. We had about the worst case scenario last Thursday with rain to heavy, wet snow that all stuck to the trees with wet bulbs around +1. 

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Fwiw, here's my report from Indiana.  The storm underperformed some here with only a few inches.  The rain/snow line crept a bit farther north than progged (never rained here though) and the fronto banding sort of overperformed farther north in northern IL.  Heaviest amounts were progged to be south of I-80 but it seems like they ended up north of I-80.  Not claiming this will mean anything downstream for you guys. 

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  On 4/17/2020 at 5:09 PM, Hoosier said:

Fwiw, here's my report from Indiana.  The storm underperformed some here with only a few inches.  The rain/snow line crept a bit farther north than progged (never rained here though) and the fronto banding sort of overperformed farther north in northern IL.  Heaviest amounts were progged to be south of I-80 but it seems like they ended up north of I-80.  Not claiming this will mean anything downstream for you guys. 

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No one in New England has ever had any experience with that sort of outcome, lol. 

What a classic statement... "the fronto banding overperformed further north..."

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