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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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  On 4/16/2020 at 10:30 PM, powderfreak said:

Sharp southern boundary near Kev, such a tough call but if 18z EURO is still there, ride that out. 

18z NAM is hilarious though around BOS. 

Can you imagine if pretty much the entire state of MA woke up to 6-9”...right into downtown Boston.

5953B048-BFA0-4FF0-B2A1-7535EBD3290E.thumb.png.5d300660280e253bf8965eb7c905409f.pngAnother shift south though. What’s 3k look like?

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  On 4/16/2020 at 10:30 PM, OceanStWx said:

Looks like the best chance of lollis 6+ will be farther west, but I think 4-6 at your elevation is a good starting point.

Can always adjust up later right? ;)

I think models around 06z are handling the snow fairly well if you use the max wet bulb temp method available on Bufkit, but spit out another inch or so after conditions get much worse. So I'm skeptical of the tail end stuff towards dawn, but the 06z thump looks very real. Shouldn't be hard to stack up 4 in that given the way things are modeled right now.

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I can’t see this overperforming though much. I think 8” is max ceiling 

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  On 4/16/2020 at 10:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I can’t see this overperforming though much. I think 8” is max ceiling 

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That's about the highest number I can pick out of Bufkit right now (like ORH) so you're probably right. I think forcing moving from laterally translating to quasi-stationary as it nears the coast is going to be the biggest factor in this being a solid advisory event. Instead of 1-2 hours of thump you may get 3-4 hours instead.

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  On 4/16/2020 at 11:01 PM, powderfreak said:

Is it me or does it seem weird BOX has no advisories out?  

Whats your threshold there?  Is it 3 or 4 inches?

Seems like it would be worthy of at least a cluster of county zones around ORH and Mass Pike zones to East Slopes?  

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They are 3"

And they still get one more shot to see data with the mid shift before they really need to pull the trigger.

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  On 4/16/2020 at 11:04 PM, OceanStWx said:

They are 3"

And they still get one more shot to see data with the mid shift before they really need to pull the trigger.

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I’m a fukkin idiot, lol.  

For a second I forgot it was happening tomorrow night, not tonight.

Yeah disregard that statement haha.

No doubt if the guidance is the same tomorrow they issue advisories.

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  On 4/16/2020 at 11:06 PM, powderfreak said:

I’m a fukkin idiot, lol.  

For a second I forgot it was happening tomorrow night, not tonight.

Yeah disregard that statement haha.

No doubt if the guidance is the same tomorrow they issue advisories.

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I did the same. I was looking at Euro cross sections for CT thinking it's effing cold tonight of course it will be snow, except it's 24 hours from now.

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  On 4/16/2020 at 11:32 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said:

We had 3" of snow falling on fully leafed out trees here in October of 2015, 10" of slop in 2011 and didn't lose power here.

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Maybe you personally but October 2011 was devastating on the whole for CT power wise, no?  Not sure if that’s a great example of avoiding outages.

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  On 4/16/2020 at 10:30 PM, powderfreak said:

Sharp southern boundary near Kev, such a tough call but if 18z EURO is still there, ride that out. 

18z NAM is hilarious though around BOS. 

Can you imagine if pretty much the entire state of MA woke up to 6-9”...right into downtown Boston.

5953B048-BFA0-4FF0-B2A1-7535EBD3290E.thumb.png.5d300660280e253bf8965eb7c905409f.png

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LOL. What a grossly overdone map.

Boston and really any of the immediate coast will not get even half of those amounts.

Toss as far as you can

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