4/17-18 snow threat

[ORH_wxman]

Decided to start a new thread for this one since we're now inside of 3 days and it's looking pretty decent for a burst of moderate to heavy snow over a chunk of SNE and perhaps CNE.

There's actually a pretty vigorous shortwave with this, although positive tilted which will prevent it from wrapping up too much. But there should be a nice ribbon of ML fronto associated with it and perhaps an attempt to prolong the precip with a developing CCB late in the game.

 

Here's the 12z Euro below. The diurnal timing is pretty good for accumulations as this is mostly a nighttime event, though it will linger into morning/midday in eastern areas.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Snow maps similar to 00z and 6z with 6-9” in hills 

[ORH_wxman]

Here is 925mb...starts a little warm down south, but cools quickly...

 

[SouthCoastMA]

woah. 1" would be impressive here, nevermind the 4-5" it's showing. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 4/15/2020 at 6:27 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

woah. 1" would be impressive here, nevermind the 4-5" it's showing. 

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Euro is pretty bullish right to the beaches. A 3-5” snowfall in this area in late April would be memorable 

[powderfreak]

That was a pretty good ECM run for you guys.  That would get it done.  

[Allsnow]

That northern CT and southern ORH area with elevation I can see doing really well with this. It’s also coming at a ideal time for this late in the season.

[NorEastermass128]

Meh

[Sugarloaf1989]

I need 0.5" to break 30" YTD, otherwise I'm not interested.

[The 4 Seasons]

I can't recall or site any plowable snow past 4/15 down here, ever. The big late one i remember and im sure most of you know is 5/9-10/1977, where the litchfield hills picked up over 20" of snow. Other than that i don't know of any really late ones down here in CT. Not to say it can't happen of course. Just speaking historically.

Now if theres any pattern or storm this late in the season, it's this one. I think the NW and NE hills have a pretty reasonable shot at accumlating/plowable snow. Everyone else in the valley or southern CT is most likely going to miss this one. I didn't dig too deep into it but those are just my thoughts glancy at a few models and panels.

3-6" near and above 1K in NW/NE is certainly possible. I would be keeping a close eye on it if you're in those areas. Some posters from NW hills and Kevin of course.

[ineedsnow]

  On 4/15/2020 at 10:22 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

I can't recall or site any plowable snow past 4/15 down here, ever. The big late one i remember and im sure most of you know is 5/9-10/1977, where the litchfield hills picked up over 20" of snow. Other than that i don't know of any really late ones down here in CT. Not to say it can't happen of course. Just speaking historically.

Now if theres any pattern or storm this late in the season, it's this one. I think the NW and NE hills have a pretty reasonable shot at accumlating/plowable snow. Everyone else in the valley or southern CT is most likely going to miss this one. I didn't dig too deep into it but those are just my thoughts glancy at a few models and panels.

3-6" near and above 1K in NW/NE is certainly possible. I would be keeping a close eye on it if you're in those areas. Some posters from NW hills and Kevin of course.

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couple years ago we had one

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2016 featured a plowable snow during the daylight hours in early April... only thing comparable I can think of.

This even would be like 10-14 days later 

[NorEastermass128]

  On 4/15/2020 at 10:57 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

2016 featured a plowable snow during the daylight hours in early April... only thing comparable I can think of.

This even would be like 10-14 days later 

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Yeah. I think that was in 4/6/16 IIRC. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 4/15/2020 at 10:22 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

I can't recall or site any plowable snow past 4/15 down here, ever. The big late one i remember and im sure most of you know is 5/9-10/1977, where the litchfield hills picked up over 20" of snow. Other than that i don't know of any really late ones down here in CT. Not to say it can't happen of course. Just speaking historically.

Now if theres any pattern or storm this late in the season, it's this one. I think the NW and NE hills have a pretty reasonable shot at accumlating/plowable snow. Everyone else in the valley or southern CT is most likely going to miss this one. I didn't dig too deep into it but those are just my thoughts glancy at a few models and panels.

3-6" near and above 1K in NW/NE is certainly possible. I would be keeping a close eye on it if you're in those areas. Some posters from NW hills and Kevin of course.

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4/28-29/87 had warning criteria in far NE CT. 17.0” fell at ORH but towns like Union down to Tolland had 8-10”. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 4/15/2020 at 11:07 PM, ORH_wxman said:

4/28-29/87 had warning criteria in far NE CT. 17.0” fell at ORH but towns like Union down to Tolland had 8-10”. 

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I remember that though I lived in Vernon. Was that a similar setup to this or more of a coastal?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 4/15/2020 at 11:10 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I remember that though I lived in Vernon. Was that a similar setup to this or more of a coastal?

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Not really like this one. That one was a pseudo redeveloper on a sharply diving in shortwave from the lakes. Produced huge qpf though. Almost had an IVT type feature that enhanced it. 

The craziest part of the ‘87 storm was that most of the snow accumulated during peak insolation....like between noon and 6pm. 

[Cold Miser]

Snow threat 2 days away, in April no less, and there are hardly any replies on this thread.  Without the Corona, this thread would be 2 or 3 pages long by now.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 4/15/2020 at 11:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Not really like this one. That one was a pseudo redeveloper on a sharply diving in shortwave from the lakes. Produced huge qpf though. Almost had an IVT type feature that enhanced it. 

The craziest part of the ‘87 storm was that most of the snow accumulated during peak insolation....like between noon and 6pm. 

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That caused a lot of power /tree issues didn’t it?

[MJO812]

  On 4/15/2020 at 11:27 PM, Cold Miser said:

Snow threat 2 days away, in April no less, and there are hardly any replies on this thread.  Without the Corona, this thread would be 2 or 3 pages long by now.

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Its April

You have to elevation for this storm 

[moneypitmike]

  On 4/15/2020 at 6:49 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro is pretty bullish right to the beaches. A 3-5” snowfall in this area in late April  this winter would be memorable 

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Fixed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nice mood enhancer. 

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro holding steady. Still thinking there could be a narrow stripe of plows or snowfall on that look. 

[Cold Miser]

  On 4/15/2020 at 11:51 PM, MJO812 said:

Its April

You have to elevation for this storm 

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Still, its a discussion.   I linger in the NNE threat discussions

[Cold Miser]

  On 4/16/2020 at 12:01 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Unreal. I have half that lol

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Half of .5"?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 4/16/2020 at 12:12 AM, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro holding steady. Still thinking there could be a narrow stripe of plows or snowfall on that look. 

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Thinking the 84 to pike zone?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 4/16/2020 at 12:27 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thinking the 84 to pike zone?

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That’s as good a zone as any right now. Maybe sneaking up to NH/VT southern borders. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 4/16/2020 at 12:29 AM, ORH_wxman said:

That’s as good a zone as any right now. Maybe sneaking up to NH/VT southern borders. 

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Does 18z euro still maintain the hang back feature? I always find those curling looks in the mid levels to perform very well...even over perform in some cases. 

[ineedsnow]

  On 4/15/2020 at 11:51 PM, MJO812 said:

Its April

You have to elevation for this storm 

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Not at night you don't if it's cold enough

[ineedsnow]

I want to use my snowblower one last time.. next week might be interesting too!

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 4/16/2020 at 12:35 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Does 18z euro still maintain the hang back feature? I always find those curling looks in the mid levels to perform very well...even over perform in some cases. 

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Lean back .... lean back