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4/17-18 snow threat


ORH_wxman
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Decided to start a new thread for this one since we're now inside of 3 days and it's looking pretty decent for a burst of moderate to heavy snow over a chunk of SNE and perhaps CNE.

There's actually a pretty vigorous shortwave with this, although positive tilted which will prevent it from wrapping up too much. But there should be a nice ribbon of ML fronto associated with it and perhaps an attempt to prolong the precip with a developing CCB late in the game.

 

Here's the 12z Euro below. The diurnal timing is pretty good for accumulations as this is mostly a nighttime event, though it will linger into morning/midday in eastern areas.

 

Apr15_12zEuro500.png

Apr15_12zEuroSfc.png

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I can't recall or site any plowable snow past 4/15 down here, ever. The big late one i remember and im sure most of you know is 5/9-10/1977, where the litchfield hills picked up over 20" of snow. Other than that i don't know of any really late ones down here in CT. Not to say it can't happen of course. Just speaking historically.

Now if theres any pattern or storm this late in the season, it's this one. I think the NW and NE hills have a pretty reasonable shot at accumlating/plowable snow. Everyone else in the valley or southern CT is most likely going to miss this one. I didn't dig too deep into it but those are just my thoughts glancy at a few models and panels.

3-6" near and above 1K in NW/NE is certainly possible. I would be keeping a close eye on it if you're in those areas. Some posters from NW hills and Kevin of course.

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22 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I can't recall or site any plowable snow past 4/15 down here, ever. The big late one i remember and im sure most of you know is 5/9-10/1977, where the litchfield hills picked up over 20" of snow. Other than that i don't know of any really late ones down here in CT. Not to say it can't happen of course. Just speaking historically.

Now if theres any pattern or storm this late in the season, it's this one. I think the NW and NE hills have a pretty reasonable shot at accumlating/plowable snow. Everyone else in the valley or southern CT is most likely going to miss this one. I didn't dig too deep into it but those are just my thoughts glancy at a few models and panels.

3-6" near and above 1K in NW/NE is certainly possible. I would be keeping a close eye on it if you're in those areas. Some posters from NW hills and Kevin of course.

couple years ago we had one

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43 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I can't recall or site any plowable snow past 4/15 down here, ever. The big late one i remember and im sure most of you know is 5/9-10/1977, where the litchfield hills picked up over 20" of snow. Other than that i don't know of any really late ones down here in CT. Not to say it can't happen of course. Just speaking historically.

Now if theres any pattern or storm this late in the season, it's this one. I think the NW and NE hills have a pretty reasonable shot at accumlating/plowable snow. Everyone else in the valley or southern CT is most likely going to miss this one. I didn't dig too deep into it but those are just my thoughts glancy at a few models and panels.

3-6" near and above 1K in NW/NE is certainly possible. I would be keeping a close eye on it if you're in those areas. Some posters from NW hills and Kevin of course.

4/28-29/87 had warning criteria in far NE CT. 17.0” fell at ORH but towns like Union down to Tolland had 8-10”. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I remember that though I lived in Vernon. Was that a similar setup to this or more of a coastal?

Not really like this one. That one was a pseudo redeveloper on a sharply diving in shortwave from the lakes. Produced huge qpf though. Almost had an IVT type feature that enhanced it. 

The craziest part of the ‘87 storm was that most of the snow accumulated during peak insolation....like between noon and 6pm. 

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not really like this one. That one was a pseudo redeveloper on a sharply diving in shortwave from the lakes. Produced huge qpf though. Almost had an IVT type feature that enhanced it. 

The craziest part of the ‘87 storm was that most of the snow accumulated during peak insolation....like between noon and 6pm. 

That caused a lot of power /tree issues didn’t it?

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