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4/13/20 Rain/Wind/Thunder obs/disc


Torch Tiger
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Man I can't remember many times where forecast models were throwing out 100+ knots of wind at 925 and as much as 110+ knots of wind at 850. Obviously there is going to be a rather stout inversion, but synotpic winds are going to be quite impressive. The bigger concern is obviously going to be convective potential. I think we'll see the slight risk expanded well into SNE. I think we will see a line of convection blow through during the afternoon with localized gusts of 65-75 mph. I do think southwest of us...SE PA, NJ, SE NY see an upgrade to an enhanced risk with a widespread destructive damaging wind event with numerous gusts in the 65-75 mph range. 

What's even more intriguing is what occurs behind this line. There are some indications perhaps there may be some breaks in the clouds with a bit of heating. This may promote the development of discrete supercells across parts of PA and SE NY so I think there is the potential for a few tornadoes there tomorrow afternoon. I think ingredient wave very rapidly across southern New England, however, there is potential this threat may extend into southwest CT. 

If we were able to warm sector a bit better here in southern New England I would see the enhanced risk get into parts of southern New England but I think we'll kinda be a bit removed fro best ingredients. 

Based on what looks to transpire from the mid-Atlantic into well at least PA/SE NY/NJ I think we may be looking at a serial derecho on our hands.

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