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4/13/20 Rain/Wind/Thunder obs/disc


Torch Tiger
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Man I can't remember many times where forecast models were throwing out 100+ knots of wind at 925 and as much as 110+ knots of wind at 850. Obviously there is going to be a rather stout inversion, but synotpic winds are going to be quite impressive. The bigger concern is obviously going to be convective potential. I think we'll see the slight risk expanded well into SNE. I think we will see a line of convection blow through during the afternoon with localized gusts of 65-75 mph. I do think southwest of us...SE PA, NJ, SE NY see an upgrade to an enhanced risk with a widespread destructive damaging wind event with numerous gusts in the 65-75 mph range. 

What's even more intriguing is what occurs behind this line. There are some indications perhaps there may be some breaks in the clouds with a bit of heating. This may promote the development of discrete supercells across parts of PA and SE NY so I think there is the potential for a few tornadoes there tomorrow afternoon. I think ingredient wave very rapidly across southern New England, however, there is potential this threat may extend into southwest CT. 

If we were able to warm sector a bit better here in southern New England I would see the enhanced risk get into parts of southern New England but I think we'll kinda be a bit removed fro best ingredients. 

Based on what looks to transpire from the mid-Atlantic into well at least PA/SE NY/NJ I think we may be looking at a serial derecho on our hands.

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  On 4/13/2020 at 1:32 AM, Spanks45 said:

I would prefer not to have power issues during the whole pandemic...at least there isn't any leaves on the trees yet, hopefully that will prevent some power outages. So what are the social distancing rules during high wind warnings?

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don't fly kites 

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