Torch Tiger Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 It looks like we'll see at least a low-end wind event Monday. Gusts 40-60 should be pretty common, maybe higher, with copious rainfall amounts. Maybe the final "bomb" for us until next winter. Discuss 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern, northeastern, southeastern and western Massachusetts and northern and southern Rhode Island. * WHEN...From Monday morning through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Numerous power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Euro max wind gusts are 60s and 70s near the coast. They have been pretty good lately. Let's hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro max wind gusts are 60s and 70s near the coast. They have been pretty good lately. Let's hope not. That seems reasonable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 of the approaching storm, while S winds slowly increase and temps remain steady or slowly rise. Strongest winds expected late AM into the afternoon on Monday as an 85-90kt H9 LLJ develops. GFS/NAM MOS guidance winds at KJFK both show sustained winds over 40 kt by 18Z Mon, some of the highest ever seen there outside of tropical cyclones. Looking at wind gusts, model soundings show typical model biases in play, with the NAM too inverted over land and the GFS too well mixed. Split the difference via a 2:1 NAM/GFS blend, as the NAM shows a little more focused LLJ toward the coast, and modified temps/mixing heights using MOS guidance hourly temps. This yields wind gusts 65-70 mph at the coast, and as high as 60-65 mph inland, mainly the higher elevations and exposed areas such as along the Hudson River. Can not totally rule out isolated 75-80 mph gusts across Long Island and coastal SE CT. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 This'll be fascinating to watch. Stuck pretty much away from the LLJ and from the low track. Guessing all I'll see is 40-50 at 750' while the highest peaks will be rollicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 BOX gung-ho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 All I gotta say is wtf, those are serious winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 All hell gonna break loose for us The highly anomalous nature of the low level jet according to MOS guidance and GEFS would argue in favor of a potentially widespread damaging wind event on Monday afternoon and evening. 12z guidance show a 90 kt low level jet at 850mb. GEFS ensemble guidance shows 925 mb winds at 5-6 standard deviations above normal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All hell gonna break loose for us The highly anomalous nature of the low level jet according to MOS guidance and GEFS would argue in favor of a potentially widespread damaging wind event on Monday afternoon and evening. 12z guidance show a 90 kt low level jet at 850mb. GEFS ensemble guidance shows 925 mb winds at 5-6 standard deviations above normal. TIT Treeless In Tolland ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 I’m not a big fan of wind. These events are typically overmodelled but maybe it verifies 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m not a big fan of wind. These events are typically overmodelled but maybe it verifies Sure hope so, last thing we need is no power. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: All hell gonna break loose for us The highly anomalous nature of the low level jet according to MOS guidance and GEFS would argue in favor of a potentially widespread damaging wind event on Monday afternoon and evening. 12z guidance show a 90 kt low level jet at 850mb. GEFS ensemble guidance shows 925 mb winds at 5-6 standard deviations above normal. Eye popping, but the reality is that locally we need to look lower in the atmosphere to correlate LLJ and surface gusts. 925 mb is a better match. 3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m not a big fan of wind. These events are typically overmodelled but maybe it verifies See below. I don't think this is an overreach for a high wind watch (AS MODELED). 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm intrigued with 925 mb tickling 80 knots from PVD up through BOS. Even with some weak lapse rates and deep surface to 925 mb layers that should be good enough for 45+ knot gusts. SSW LLJs do tend to have more red flags than a SE or NE jet, but this is not a marginal wind max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m not a big fan of wind. These events are typically overmodelled but maybe it verifies Always always over modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: All hell gonna break loose for us The highly anomalous nature of the low level jet according to MOS guidance and GEFS would argue in favor of a potentially widespread damaging wind event on Monday afternoon and evening. 12z guidance show a 90 kt low level jet at 850mb. GEFS ensemble guidance shows 925 mb winds at 5-6 standard deviations above 40-50. No leaves little damage 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 the concensus here seems to be very light damage, toppled lawn chairs or lawn ornament but no trees or lines. Everyone will be okay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Cloud tags ‘ill be a riot moving at hurricane sky-scape speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 This is probably the most deep tropospheric momentum event that I’ve seen around here in many years actually… We’ve always had them once in a while pop up in guidance but 55 mph gusts are like the 1 SD gusts average departure here ... which is pretty f spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 6 hours ago, kdxken said: 40-50. No leaves little damage Thus if model soundings are adjusted for surface temps in the 60s Mon afternoon, this will support wind gust potential of 60 mph to possibly as high as 70 mph across the entire region. Strongest winds likely across central and northern portions of CT/RI including Providence and into interior southeastern MA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thus if model soundings are adjusted for surface temps in the 60s Mon afternoon, this will support wind gust potential of 60 mph to possibly as high as 70 mph across the entire region. Strongest winds likely across central and northern portions of CT/RI including Providence and into interior southeastern MA. lol...you were meh’ing this pretty good the other day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Mid 50s dews before the fropa too. I may even open the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 I’ll take the under on wind gusts here. I’ll say 46mph peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 We can toss the TAN anny in most cases anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: We can toss the TAN anny in most cases anyway. Agree with that. Not the best siting to capture winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 I think this verifies fairly windy...we’re not trying to advect in a warm airmass over a Jan/Feb surface. Yeah, there will be rain and clouds, but those 925-950 winds are impressive down in SNE. Some 60s in a dewy warm sector will help the transport down. Yeah, I doubt the TAN ASOS gusts to 65-70mph, but the usual spots that maximize on S flow should approach those BOX numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 It will definitely be windy and the watches are warranted. I just would lop off those high numbers by a decent amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: lol...you were meh’ing this pretty good the other day. It always works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 BOX grid forecast has peak gust of up to 55mph here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 If my son was still at his college on Narragansett Bay he would be blown out to ACKwaves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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