0Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010

[retusnmete8]

Welp. Lets see what the Euro says. Look at it tomorrow am at Allans site.

Agree. Pre-mature at this point. Tomorrow will give a better look for all

models at a time where verifications and consistency give us more to lean on.

[EasternUSWX]

12z/18z/00z

Looks less wet with each run.

Less wet in the eastern parts more wet in the west parts.

[gkrangers]

Hasn't the GFS been consistent with it's eastern low route?

If I recall correctly, the GFS had big hits early on, followed by suppressed and way out to sea, and now is coming in as a scraper.

It would sorta make sense at this point if the Euro comes a bit east, and we end up with a consensus of a brush for most of the coast, and maybe heavier snow toward eastern New England.

[Dcwx]

Hasn't the GFS been consistent with it's eastern low route?

Fairly consistent and with more model agreement.

As I said earlier, The GFS is a consistent extreme on one end and the Euro is a consistent extreme on the other end. There will be some sort of compromise based on the fact that the models have opposite biases.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Hasn't the GFS been consistent with it's eastern low route?

No. The OTS solution was, but how it got there wasn't. Plus many runs showed no phase and it sliding out to sea while others showed a phase and a huge storm turning north but just too far east. It has not been consistent.... The euro has remained almost identical from run to run.

[SACRUS]

GGEM has begun out to 12

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/527_100.gif

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Nothing, because we'll all be fixated on its next coastal cutoff that it's trying to give us.

Either that or we'll have been brainwashed by the inevitable 400 post thread explaining how the Euro, though grotesquely wrong, was actually the most accurate based on some esoteric variable that verified better on the EC than on any other global model.

LOL, although I'll wait until after the 0z Euro to say much I'd agree with your prediction if it shifts east.

If we get some snow in SNE it would be most right because it said so first.

GGEM through 12 looks similar to the GFS but it's way early.

[psuhoffman]

Nothing, because we'll all be fixated on its next coastal cutoff that it's trying to give us.

Either that or we'll have been brainwashed by the inevitable 400 post thread explaining how the Euro, though grotesquely wrong, was actually the most accurate based on some esoteric variable that verified better on the EC than on any other global model.

depending on what the final solution is there my be no winner...the GFS has already shifted hundreds of miles from its solutions yesterday.

[SnowGoose69]

If the Euro tracks one centimeter east on the next run this board will go into meltdown mode.

Why that would be shocking news to any is bizarre but you're correct for the most part....outside of its last run the Euro has been west of 80-90% of its ensemble members, the last run was the only one which really deviated from that tendency...Upton's AFD said the best guess NOW is a track just SE of the benchmark and I cannot agree with that more...as of now this is without a doubt a miss for most, but we've got at least another 24-48 hours for that to right itself the other direction...no matter what tonight's runs show.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

quit with the nonsense posts

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[atownwxwatcher]

Why that would be shocking news to any is bizarre but you're correct for the most part....outside of its last run the Euro has been west of 80-90% of its ensemble members, the last run was the only one which really deviated from that tendency...Upton's AFD said the best guess NOW is a track just SE of the benchmark and I cannot agree with that more...as of now this is without a doubt a miss for most, but we've got at least another 24-48 hours for that to right itself the other direction...no matter what tonight's runs show.

However..the ECM has been consistent as well so I am not sure that can be easily dismissed. IF the ECM holds serve i wonder what many will do that have been against it from the beginning..

Does it make sense for a storm of this deepness to go east of the Gulf Stream or does CLIMO argue along or the western side?

[Amped]

72 0z vs 78 18z. Potentail problem. Troff not cornering off over LA.

[SnowGoose69]

However..the ECM has been consistent as well so I am not sure that can be easily dismissed. IF the ECM holds serve i wonder what many will do that have been against it from the beginning..

Does it make sense for a storm of this deepness to go east of the Gulf Stream or does CLIMO argue along or the western side?

I would think it will nudge east ever so slightly...I posted a couple of days ago that often the Euro's bias in the SW does not hurt it too much with its end results on the East Coast for whatever reason, that despite its slow solutions out west it often can still correct down the road to get the eventual scenario right, but there is definitely going to be some sort of speed up and in this case even a slight increase is big for people just inland.

[PhineasC]

I would think it will nudge east ever so slightly...I posted a couple of days ago that often the Euro's bias in the SW does not hurt it too much with its end results on the East Coast for whatever reason, that despite its slow solutions out west it often can still correct down the road to get the eventual scenario right, but there is definitely going to be some sort of speed up and in this case even a slight increase is big for people just inland.

I think folks have said this for the past three days and the Euro has gotten more wound-up, if anything.

[atownwxwatcher]

I would think it will nudge east ever so slightly...I posted a couple of days ago that often the Euro's bias in the SW does not hurt it too much with its end results on the East Coast for whatever reason, that despite its slow solutions out west it often can still correct down the road to get the eventual scenario right, but there is definitely going to be some sort of speed up and in this case even a slight increase is big for people just inland.

Would you really think that with this being said about the ECM ensemble members?

The Euro ensembles have an encouraging look to them. None of them are progressive like the GFS (which has actually nudged westward). In fact, most of them have a very amplified trough and phase with the low fairly close to the coast. I'd have to say a good majority of them have very good surface low tracks for our area.

source

[WintersGrasp]

Nice model war we have.....

The euro stands alone...will it win ? I sure hope so

[chris87]

Its all about timing. The models at this point are not that different. Slow the gfs down 12 hours u will likely see a euro solution. Speed up the euro by 12 hours u will likely see a gfs solution. Considering u r looking at a 84 to 108 hour forecast....u are expecting perfect agreement for a very complicated scenario.

[SACRUS]

GGEM 36

[vinylfreak89]

Its all about timing. The models at this point are not that different. Slow the gfs down 12 hours u will likely see a euro solution. Speed up the euro by 12 hours u will likely see a gfs solution. Considering u r looking at a 84 to 108 hour forecast....u are expecting perfect agreement for a very complicated scenario.

i think its a bit more complicated than pure speed. the interaction of the northern stream on the GFS is very different from the euro... could that be because of the faster southern stream shortwave? maybe... I dunno

[psuhoffman]

72 0z vs 78 18z. Potentail problem. Troff not cornering off over LA.

yea I notice that too and I am not sure but I don't like it much. I am waiting to see if the GGEM/UKMET/Euro agree with the new northern dominated scenario of the GFS. I think the GFS/NAM solution is further from the Euro type HECS scenario then some are making it seem.

[pythium]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_pcp_084m.gif

[Radders]

i think its a bit more complicated than pure speed. the interaction of the northern stream on the GFS is very different from the euro... could that be because of the faster southern stream shortwave? maybe... I dunno

Yes, i think there are a few things at play here, but it is not just timing... Timing is clearly having an impact downstream on the phase, but i think the way the GFS is handling the phase is also just different to the Euro, regardless of timing.

Really going to be interesting to see how fast the euro depicts the southern energy tonight.

[chris87]

Yes it was a purposeful oversimplification on the situation....yet there are other important moving pieces but timing is the dominant one.

i think its a bit more complicated than pure speed. the interaction of the northern stream on the GFS is very different from the euro... could that be because of the faster southern stream shortwave? maybe... I dunno

[SACRUS]

GGEM to 72 slower than the gfs

[NortheastPAWx]

Looks like no phase on the GGEM...another inch closer to the ledge for this event?

[psuhoffman]

GGEM looks like a total mess at 72 hours.

H5 trough not digging nearly enough (like the GFS/NAM)

H5 trough very positively tilted

trough axis way too far east

no surface reflection or moisture transport north out of the gulf

basically a total and complete disaster at 72 hours.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GGEM looks like a total mess at 72 hours.

H5 trough not digging nearly enough (like the GFS/NAM)

H5 trough very positively tilted

trough axis way too far east

no surface reflection or moisture transport north out of the gulf

basically a total and complete disaster at 72 hours.

There's a lot of energy streaming down due south but it's going to be too late for many. This is 4 models now, I think the consensus is the UK was not great for many.

[Bob Chill]

Its all about timing. The models at this point are not that different. Slow the gfs down 12 hours u will likely see a euro solution. Speed up the euro by 12 hours u will likely see a gfs solution. Considering u r looking at a 84 to 108 hour forecast....u are expecting perfect agreement for a very complicated scenario.

I have been thinking the exact same thing. I almost never post in model threads because my depth of met knowledge can't bring solid scientific analysis to the table and I don't like clutter. However, I am very analytical by nature. I've been starting at each panel of the various models and timing appears to be the largest contributer to the large spread of solutions with this one. The dynamic nature of the ingredients coming together are making it extraordinarily tough for the various models to cluster together.

The "if this, then this" output of computer modeling is making this one tough forecast. This is why Mets can never be replaced by computers. A potential high impact event needs to be forecasted to the public. When faced with a forecast of a storm at this range and the large spread in models, a Met must use the best computer ever designed to decide which "if this, then this" outcome is likely to be correct.

[psuhoffman]

There's a lot of energy streaming down due south but it's going to be too late for many. This is 4 models now, I think the consensus is the UK was not great for many.

yes trends on the GFS/NAM aside the bottom line is it remains the Euro vs All. of course we do not know yet what the euro will show tonight. I was almost sure it would fold last night and yet it did not so I will not bet against it again but would not be shocked at all if it changes it solution tonight...seems things have sped up a lot on all guidance tonight. Some more then others but the speed has increased and that may change the situation. I also think the GFS/NAM while closer to a storm solution do it in a completely different way and might have actually moved away from a euro solution.

[pojrzsho]

Nice model war we have.....

The euro stands alone...will it win ? I sure hope so

I think it "stands alone" only in a sense of great for a big storm it is. However, I think other models have shown a soulution closer to the Euro almost every run for the past 48 hours. So it doesn't REALLY stand alone.