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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010


Dr No

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I think everyone is possibly being sentimental in hanging on to the old Euro solutions - timing and all. Remember the EC has an established known bias for holding energy back in the s/w and overdeveloping it. There was some talk maybe that had been corrected but if it jumps tonight east it was that bias again giving it fits.

I'm kind of surprised at how many people, including HPC is relying on one model. I know it's been consistent, but we are still days away.

Has there ever been a model that has showed a blizzard solution for days and not waver without a lot of other model support and it end up being right and all of the other models wrong? I feel like I should know that answer.

If the EURO is right then it is definitely King, but if it's wrong what is everyone going to say about it?

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I'm kind of surprised at how many people, including HPC is relying on one model. I know it's been consistent, but we are still days away.

Has there ever been a model that has showed a blizzard solution for days and not waver without a lot of other model support and it end up being right and all of the other models wrong? I feel like I should know that answer.

If the EURO is right then it is definitely King, but if it's wrong what is everyone going to say about it?

I think the HPC explained why they support an outcome ala the Euro, didn't they say that based on the upper air setup and climo, in their opinion, that they were gonna lean toward the Euro?

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Yes...HPC favored a comprimise between the 12z EC op and its ensemble mean....and pointed out climo and the upper air pattern as support. The Euro has not waivered for 8-9 runs in a row and the GFS and others have been all over the place. The GGEM has been back and forth as well. Not to mention the GFS began a big shift towards the euro at 12z and continued at 18z. I believe that the 00z GFS will hold serve but we shall see soon.

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I think the HPC explained why they support an outcome ala the Euro, didn't they say that based on the upper air setup and climo, in their opinion, that they were gonna lean toward the Euro?

Yeah and its consistency. I know why, I was just curious if there was ever another model to show a blizzard this far out and stick to the same solution till the day of the storm and it being right, while no other model shows a blizzard?

And I especially know you can't just look at the surface, you have to look at trends and upper levels and all to compare with models. Just wondering.

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it is similar but with one SIGNIFICANT difference, it still has the southern stream energy a bit more pronounced and deeper. This may put it more in the Euro camp.

it's about identical to the GFS as it rolls out (rgem) in that regard.

I'm kind of surprised at how many people, including HPC is relying on one model. I know it's been consistent, but we are still days away.

Has there ever been a model that has showed a blizzard solution for days and not waver without a lot of other model support and it end up being right and all of the other models wrong? I feel like I should know that answer.

If the EURO is right then it is definitely King, but if it's wrong what is everyone going to say about it?

Well I'm somewhat surprised I haven't seen a mention of the tendency to overdevelop s/w troughs in the deep SW. In light of the RGEM/GFS/NAM from 0z it may have been a serious oversight but let's see the rest of the model run.

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Yeah and its consistency. I know why, I was just curious if there was ever another model to show a blizzard this far out and stick to the same solution till the day of the storm and it being right, while no other model shows a blizzard?

And I especially know you can't just look at the surface, you have to look at trends and upper levels and all to compare with models. Just wondering.

i think a model or 2 had the superstorm in 93 pounding the coast almost a week out
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Well I'm somewhat surprised I haven't seen a mention of the tendency to overdevelop s/w troughs in the deep SW. In light of the RGEM/GFS/NAM from 0z it may have been a serious oversight but let's see the rest of the model run.

Don't worry, you're mentioning it enough to make up for all of us who are not. I also don't believe anyone has overlooked the Euro tendency. I've seen it mentioned countless times over the years and last couple days.

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I'm kind of surprised at how many people, including HPC is relying on one model. I know it's been consistent, but we are still days away.

Has there ever been a model that has showed a blizzard solution for days and not waver without a lot of other model support and it end up being right and all of the other models wrong? I feel like I should know that answer.

If the EURO is right then it is definitely King, but if it's wrong what is everyone going to say about it?

I said this earlier today in another thread. Showing a HECS 120 hours out isn't what you want, IMO. Can it keep showing the same solution for the next 10 runs, maybe, but it's unlikely.

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I said this earlier today in another thread. Showing a HECS 120 hours out isn't what you want, IMO. Can it keep showing the same solution for the next 10 runs, maybe, but it's unlikely.

Other models coming in line with Euro past 24 hours. So that trend favors Euro until we see a reversal/change in trending.

NAM 84 still appears weaker and farther east so we shall see what that does next 24 hours.

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I know I am going to get eaten to shreds here, but the same thoughts apply. Some may perceive them as weenie, but without the GOM influence this won't undergo rapid and intense self development and it won't hook into the coast.

I agree... and I wonder if the GFS didnt just take a step away from the euro solution by focusing even more on the northern branch and not digging as much.

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I know I am going to get eaten to shreds here, but the same thoughts apply. Some may perceive them as weenie, but without the GOM influence this won't undergo rapid and intense self development and it won't hook into the coast.

Yes. People keep saying the GFS/NAM are trending towards the Euro but in fact they are arriving at their solutions differently. GFs/NAM are speeding up the shortwave and it isn't further south enough to tap GOM moisture. Curious to see what the Euro does tonight given the "trending" of the GFS/NAM.

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.... but if it's wrong what is everyone going to say about it?

Nothing, because we'll all be fixated on its next coastal cutoff that it's trying to give us.

Either that or we'll have been brainwashed by the inevitable 400 post thread explaining how the Euro, though grotesquely wrong, was actually the most accurate based on some esoteric variable that verified better on the EC than on any other global model.

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Doesn't the euro hold energy back to long so a correction would be to move it faster and result in the GFS camp?

Down south yes, but the GFS has its own tendencies in northern N/A. I'll be interested in seeing how the EC handles the digging energy.

I'm not convinced tonight is the run that will flip the EC either. Sometimes it seems to take another 12 hours for the system to actually move across the SW.

GGEM is running.

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