psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Exactly the same as the NAM at 500 more or less at least in terms of the speed...not what I was wanting to see, thats for sure. it is similar but with one SIGNIFICANT difference, it still has the southern stream energy a bit more pronounced and deeper. This may put it more in the Euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think everyone is possibly being sentimental in hanging on to the old Euro solutions - timing and all. Remember the EC has an established known bias for holding energy back in the s/w and overdeveloping it. There was some talk maybe that had been corrected but if it jumps tonight east it was that bias again giving it fits. I'm kind of surprised at how many people, including HPC is relying on one model. I know it's been consistent, but we are still days away. Has there ever been a model that has showed a blizzard solution for days and not waver without a lot of other model support and it end up being right and all of the other models wrong? I feel like I should know that answer. If the EURO is right then it is definitely King, but if it's wrong what is everyone going to say about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm kind of surprised at how many people, including HPC is relying on one model. I know it's been consistent, but we are still days away. Has there ever been a model that has showed a blizzard solution for days and not waver without a lot of other model support and it end up being right and all of the other models wrong? I feel like I should know that answer. If the EURO is right then it is definitely King, but if it's wrong what is everyone going to say about it? I think the HPC explained why they support an outcome ala the Euro, didn't they say that based on the upper air setup and climo, in their opinion, that they were gonna lean toward the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yes...HPC favored a comprimise between the 12z EC op and its ensemble mean....and pointed out climo and the upper air pattern as support. The Euro has not waivered for 8-9 runs in a row and the GFS and others have been all over the place. The GGEM has been back and forth as well. Not to mention the GFS began a big shift towards the euro at 12z and continued at 18z. I believe that the 00z GFS will hold serve but we shall see soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think the HPC explained why they support an outcome ala the Euro, didn't they say that based on the upper air setup and climo, in their opinion, that they were gonna lean toward the Euro? Yeah and its consistency. I know why, I was just curious if there was ever another model to show a blizzard this far out and stick to the same solution till the day of the storm and it being right, while no other model shows a blizzard? And I especially know you can't just look at the surface, you have to look at trends and upper levels and all to compare with models. Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That is what is great about this field....even degreed mets of all kinds can look at the same data and paint different pictures. Pretty amazing actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That is what is great about this field....even degreed mets of all kinds can look at the same data and paint different pictures. Pretty amazing actually. and IMO if you have some sound scientific backing and reasonable thought put into it, then a differing opinion is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it is similar but with one SIGNIFICANT difference, it still has the southern stream energy a bit more pronounced and deeper. This may put it more in the Euro camp. it's about identical to the GFS as it rolls out (rgem) in that regard. I'm kind of surprised at how many people, including HPC is relying on one model. I know it's been consistent, but we are still days away. Has there ever been a model that has showed a blizzard solution for days and not waver without a lot of other model support and it end up being right and all of the other models wrong? I feel like I should know that answer. If the EURO is right then it is definitely King, but if it's wrong what is everyone going to say about it? Well I'm somewhat surprised I haven't seen a mention of the tendency to overdevelop s/w troughs in the deep SW. In light of the RGEM/GFS/NAM from 0z it may have been a serious oversight but let's see the rest of the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah and its consistency. I know why, I was just curious if there was ever another model to show a blizzard this far out and stick to the same solution till the day of the storm and it being right, while no other model shows a blizzard? And I especially know you can't just look at the surface, you have to look at trends and upper levels and all to compare with models. Just wondering. i think a model or 2 had the superstorm in 93 pounding the coast almost a week out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well I'm somewhat surprised I haven't seen a mention of the tendency to overdevelop s/w troughs in the deep SW. In light of the RGEM/GFS/NAM from 0z it may have been a serious oversight but let's see the rest of the model run. Don't worry, you're mentioning it enough to make up for all of us who are not. I also don't believe anyone has overlooked the Euro tendency. I've seen it mentioned countless times over the years and last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm kind of surprised at how many people, including HPC is relying on one model. I know it's been consistent, but we are still days away. Has there ever been a model that has showed a blizzard solution for days and not waver without a lot of other model support and it end up being right and all of the other models wrong? I feel like I should know that answer. If the EURO is right then it is definitely King, but if it's wrong what is everyone going to say about it? I said this earlier today in another thread. Showing a HECS 120 hours out isn't what you want, IMO. Can it keep showing the same solution for the next 10 runs, maybe, but it's unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Through 48 hours, the GFS looks a bit northeast of its 18Z position at the same time, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I said this earlier today in another thread. Showing a HECS 120 hours out isn't what you want, IMO. Can it keep showing the same solution for the next 10 runs, maybe, but it's unlikely. Other models coming in line with Euro past 24 hours. So that trend favors Euro until we see a reversal/change in trending. NAM 84 still appears weaker and farther east so we shall see what that does next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Through 48 hours, the GFS looks a bit northeast of its 18Z position at the same time, no? I agree, deff closer to the Red River Valley this run. Its looks to be trying close off that 584 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Per Radio show mets..RGEM is NOT the same as NAM with h5 s/w its slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS still running off-shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Getting closer but, still no. At least we see some light snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I know I am going to get eaten to shreds here, but the same thoughts apply. Some may perceive them as weenie, but without the GOM influence this won't undergo rapid and intense self development and it won't hook into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS/NAM general consensus through 84. Both sped up, 00Z GFS sfc low same spot at 84 hours that 12Z was at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I know I am going to get eaten to shreds here, but the same thoughts apply. Some may perceive them as weenie, but without the GOM influence this won't undergo rapid and intense self development and it won't hook into the coast. I agree... and I wonder if the GFS didnt just take a step away from the euro solution by focusing even more on the northern branch and not digging as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I know I am going to get eaten to shreds here, but the same thoughts apply. Some may perceive them as weenie, but without the GOM influence this won't undergo rapid and intense self development and it won't hook into the coast. Strongly agree with all of the thoughts you've posted tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I know I am going to get eaten to shreds here, but the same thoughts apply. Some may perceive them as weenie, but without the GOM influence this won't undergo rapid and intense self development and it won't hook into the coast. Yes. People keep saying the GFS/NAM are trending towards the Euro but in fact they are arriving at their solutions differently. GFs/NAM are speeding up the shortwave and it isn't further south enough to tap GOM moisture. Curious to see what the Euro does tonight given the "trending" of the GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Doesn't the euro hold energy back to long so a correction would be to move it faster and result in the GFS camp? GFS/NAM general consensus through 84. Both sped up, 00Z GFS sfc low same spot at 84 hours that 12Z was at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 .... but if it's wrong what is everyone going to say about it? Nothing, because we'll all be fixated on its next coastal cutoff that it's trying to give us. Either that or we'll have been brainwashed by the inevitable 400 post thread explaining how the Euro, though grotesquely wrong, was actually the most accurate based on some esoteric variable that verified better on the EC than on any other global model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Doesn't the euro hold energy back to long so a correction would be to move it faster and result in the GFS camp? Down south yes, but the GFS has its own tendencies in northern N/A. I'll be interested in seeing how the EC handles the digging energy. I'm not convinced tonight is the run that will flip the EC either. Sometimes it seems to take another 12 hours for the system to actually move across the SW. GGEM is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro is all alone... Its time for the cave. We have been saying that for the past 4 runs yet it has remained amazingly consistent while the other models have flip flopped immensely. I am not going to discount the solution of a MECS until the Euro folds and I do not expect that to happen tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hasn't the GFS been consistent with it's eastern low route? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 not one member of the 18z ensembles gave us a good hit 100+ hours out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12z/18z/00z Looks less wet with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hasn't the GFS been consistent with it's eastern low route? No, a few days ago, it showed a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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