Dcwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The biggest difference to me is the timing. Why is it so different? The maps themselves do not look bad but I am finding it strange that the NAM is so much faster than the Euro. I think tonight's runs will really open some eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 keep in Mind Mitch the Euro is Muich slower with this event so snow into DC sat afternoon would be faster I know, I was just sayin' why bash a model that just gave me bonus snow probably not right look at all the snow it gave MASS only 60 hrs ago (between .5-1" qpf) and they ended up with .1-.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I should be careful with OTS, I guess I mean it won't be a big hooker into the coast, likely a glancing blow. Not truly out to sea and to Bermuda, just not a monster event like the ECM. It looks to me that the NAM taken at face value would be a bit of a wide turn but it would hook pretty violently back to the left....I thought it looked favorable for New England, and perhaps it would come back enough for the rest of I-95, but hard to say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ah I wish people would understand, I am just analyzing the 0Z NAM itself, not making a forecast. This run wouldn't do it, that is all I said. Really my thoughts change little based off the NAM. I understand what you are saying. It seems extroplated the NAM could bring the storm NNE but likely only scrape eastern parts of the Mid Atlantic and then more likely give LI and eastern New England and Maine a good hit as it intesifies later and further north then say the previous Euro runs much further south bomb. Small differences in the early to mid range can magnify themselves out in the mid and longer range especially with respect to sensible weather experienced. Again just analyzing the 0z NAM run and all and all it still in, in the general sense, keeping the game going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Once again another model and positive baby steps. Keep the euro holding serve two more runs and I am all in. By that time major players well sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 keep in Mind Mitch the Euro is Muich slower with this event so snow into DC sat afternoon would be faster Any concern with the Euro speeding up the shortrwave tonight like the NAM just did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the NAM just gave DCA/BWI an inch or two of snow and the Euro had nothing for us through that time period I like the NAM tonight anybody in DCA/BWI area with me? here here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I know, I was just sayin' why bash a model that just gave me bonus snow probably not right look at all the snow it gave MASS only 60 hrs ago (between .5-1" qpf) and they ended up with .1-.25" Mitch..that's why the NAM should be looked at within 60...Last Sunday's NAM gave me a few inches of snow tonight..I see the stars instead..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM joins the rest forming a closed 5h low over the MA, good news. Don't sweat the details outside of 60h ladies and germs...from what I see it didn't miss by a whole lot. The NAM is on board for a major system IMO, let's see what tomorrow brings. Bingo! Looks slower as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 84 is decent and nowhere near as bad as the NAM was made out to be. Its probably gonna scrape, but its the 84 hour NAM. Reading here, you would think the low was going to Bermuda. I don't even think its a scrape (i.e., looks closer than that) To my untrained eye, the NAM 84 cutoff was about about 15 minutes before this thing went nuclear. 1004 surface low on the SE coast, nice closed 850 low there already and all kinds of energy rounding the base of a deep troff. Looks like a match being struck in a room full of black powder to me. What I think some are seeing is the sw to ne orientation of the paltry reflections on the weenie radar and drawing in a storm track from that (not the mets, mind you). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 do you really believe or want to use the NAM at the end of its run can be used to justify that? would you not agree that it is a HUGE step, vs. all prior runs, toward the Euro? that's all that matter right now every run is getting better so no need to take it literally at this time I was just analyzing the 0z NAM not making a prediction about if it is right or not. I thought that was the point of this thread. Do I believe the NAM, not a chance. I have seen it have crazy solutions outside 48 hours and even inside 24 hours it has a hiccup sometimes, but we are providing analysis of what this solution shows and that is all I was doing. If the 0z NAM were correct in the evolution of this system, then it does probably take the mega bomb gulf low solution of the euro out of play. That is not a statement that I am taking the euro off the table, just that the NAM does not agree currently with the euro evolution of the system. Is this perhaps some intermediate step towards a euro solution...perhaps but that is merely speculative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 quick analysis.... hour 30 southern wave starts to interact with piece of energy over SD....this cause the southern stream wave to go from positive (ie. stop moving SE into TX) to slightly negative at hour 48...it's responsible for the more widespread snow in the OH valley and eventually light snow in the MA late on christmas. this interaction is not allowing the southern stream to sink into TX and wait for the main jet streak....thus you have a main trough which only digs into the TN Valley instead of the gulf coast...which when the full phase occurs you have less time to pull this thing up the coast.... not saying its right or wrong...but the main difference between this run of the NAM and the last 4 runs of the Euro is ultimately how deep the main trough digs prior to and as it goes negative... just thoughts GREAT GREAT POST, That is perfect analysis of the 00z nam and why there are two sides of people who think good/b ad on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I like this run because while it doesnt show the bomb that the Euro's do, it brings more of us potentially back int the game (albeit small). At face value it is not a big score, but with biases of the NAM, I think many are happy with the "trend", as we know we are continuing to see the evolution of a potentially nice solution for many. We all do not need the 2' of snow, just some for many is nice. Just observations a from a hobbyist that is trying to keep a lid on expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I was just analyzing the 0z NAM not making a prediction about if it is right or not. I thought that was the point of this thread. Do I believe the NAM, not a chance. I have seen it have crazy solutions outside 48 hours and even inside 24 hours it has a hiccup sometimes, but we are providing analysis of what this solution shows and that is all I was doing. If the 0z NAM were correct in the evolution of this system, then it does probably take the mega bomb gulf low solution of the euro out of play. That is not a statement that I am taking the euro off the table, just that the NAM does not agree currently with the euro evolution of the system. Is this perhaps some intermediate step towards a euro solution...perhaps but that is merely speculative. How can you say the 84HR map doesn't show system poised to bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yes, we love it. Well, not psuhoffman but he has never liked a storm. It is what it is...weather I like it or not will not change the solution or eventual outcome. I am not going to be upset if this NAM solution has merit and this evolves into a more modest event xmas night. My life will not change because of it. But if I had my choice I would rather root for the truly epic solution of the Euro over a modest overrunning type event or even the possibility of a more run of the mill modest coastal that could form out of this NAM solution. It is also very possible the NAM is going through a transition towards the Euro and just is lost in between at the moment. That is my gut feeling but I have no hard evidence to support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just got in here to check some of the 00Z discussion on the NAM. Interesting. Just from my own glance, comparing today's 12Z at 84h at to the current 72h at 00Z (valid 00Z Dec. 26), it appears the 500 mb trough is sharper and narrower. And, has a more south-to-north component rather than southwest-northeast. I don't know if that means a whole lot, but it does appear better than what the earlier 12Z cycle had. I certainly understand the view that it's "not quite there" yet. But, as other's have said, another step in the right direction? Sorry if this was asked before, but could the noticably different evolution be due to new data getting in now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It looks to me that the NAM taken at face value would be a bit of a wide turn but it would hook pretty violently back to the left....I thought it looked favorable for New England, and perhaps it would come back enough for the rest of I-95, but hard to say for sure. 84 hour NAM 500H compared to the 96 hour 12Z Euro seems to have the flow more parallel to the coast with much stronger ridging ahead. I agree, the NAM extrapolated would probably be a hit for coastal locations, not sure about inland. Wonder what the Euro would look like if the ridging out ahead built up quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not sure Im seeing everyones enthusiasm over the NAM. Its handling of the two streams is completely different than the Euro, and the end result is definately not the same. The trough digs much less on the NAM, resulting in a further north surface low development. Sure this would bomb in later frames, but taken literally it would end up screwing most of the southern MA, the same areas that the Euro buried. If we want an all encompassing east coast storm, we want the two streams to remain separate longer ala Euro, not this early phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 00Z RGEM agrees with the NAM with s/w positioning in OK at Tau 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 84 hour NAM 500H compared to the 96 hour 12Z Euro seems to have the flow more parallel to the coast with much stronger ridging ahead. I agree, the NAM extrapolated would probably be a hit for coastal locations, not sure about inland. Wonder what the Euro would look like if the ridging out ahead built up quicker? Luckily this is still at the far end of the NAM's range, which is rarely dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not sure Im seeing everyones enthusiasm over the NAM. Its handling of the two streams is completely different than the Euro, and the end result is definately not the same. The trough digs much less on the NAM, resulting in a further north surface low development. Sure this would bomb in later frames, but taken literally it would end up screwing most of the southern MA, the same areas that the Euro buried. If we want an all encompassing east coast storm, we want the two streams to remain separate longer ala Euro, not this early phase. I agree fully! People are getting all excited over the surface reflection at the end of the run. Sure it might be the same result at the surface at 84hrs, but it is getting there in a completely different manner IMO. Its not so much what the surface looks like as it is how that surface reflection gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not sure Im seeing everyones enthusiasm over the NAM. Its handling of the two streams is completely different than the Euro, and the end result is definately not the same. The trough digs much less on the NAM, resulting in a further north surface low development. Sure this would bomb in later frames, but taken literally it would end up screwing most of the southern MA, the same areas that the Euro buried. If we want an all encompassing east coast storm, we want the two streams to remain separate longer ala Euro, not this early phase. You've got some inland folks further north who might not agree with your last sentence. It's just guidance....all of it. A couple more days worth of runs for everybody to remain nervous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How can you say the 84HR map doesn't show system poised to bomb? it is about to bomb, but its doing so with a different vort then the euro uses, mostly northern branch dominated, and its happening east of Wilmington NC. The Euro bombs the southern system that gets totally washed out on the NAM, and the low begins its rapid deepening phase while over northern Florida not east of NC. Is the NAM a train wreck, no. Is it in the "euro" camp, no. Its somewhere in between with a totally different storm evolution then any other model had at 12z. We will just have to wait and see what other 0z guidance has to say. IMO its way too soon to make conclusions about what the 0z NAM solution might mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 48 hr RGEM is a bit impressive to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 48 hr RGEM is a bit impressive to me Exactly the same as the NAM at 500 more or less at least in terms of the speed...not what I was wanting to see, thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think everyone is possibly being sentimental in hanging on to the old Euro solutions - timing and all. Remember the EC has an established known bias for holding energy back in the s/w and overdeveloping it. There was some talk maybe that had been corrected but if it jumps tonight east it was that bias again giving it fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I should be careful with OTS, I guess I mean it won't be a big hooker into the coast, likely a glancing blow. Not truly out to sea and to Bermuda, just not a monster event like the ECM. Wouldn't you think the energetic injection of vorticity knifing out of Manitoba Canada and rounding the major short wave trough will sharpen that trough and force it to dig just as the trough nears the coast and the Gulf Stream waters off the Carolinas? Isn't this classic to spin up a coastal low? Seems to me the Canadian infusion of vorticity makes all the diff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not sure Im seeing everyones enthusiasm over the NAM. Its handling of the two streams is completely different than the Euro, and the end result is definately not the same. The trough digs much less on the NAM, resulting in a further north surface low development. Sure this would bomb in later frames, but taken literally it would end up screwing most of the southern MA, the same areas that the Euro buried. If we want an all encompassing east coast storm, we want the two streams to remain separate longer ala Euro, not this early phase. i do like the overall position of the nam, it is a good trend in euros direction, i just dont get overly excited over the NAM at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Exactly the same as the NAM at 500 more or less at least in terms of the speed...not what I was wanting to see, thats for sure. the 5H trough is deeper than NAM with the 570 line down to the Gulf shoreline and NAM is a couple hundred miles to the north of it EDIT: maybe only 100+ miles, but the trough is further west, which I forgot to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Timing is the biggest issue with this. I am not liking the speed of the NAM and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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