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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010


Dr No

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unless its going due north after 84 (which i dont know maybe its possible with that setup) its going to go ots

Really? With all that energy diving into the backside of the trough you think it's riding out to sea? Is it going to tuck into LI like earlier runs probably not, but it's in no way OTS on this run.

I haven't seen this much energy dumping down in ages. It's a thing of beauty and I now see what all the mets have been amped up over for days.

nam_500_084l.gif

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84 is decent and nowhere near as bad as the NAM was made out to be. Its probably gonna scrape, but its the 84 hour NAM. Reading here, you would think the low was going to Bermuda.

Its a slow Step in the right direction towards the Euro but not all the way there, If we had more to work off of, i think we'd see something not as strong as the Euro but trending closer to it. This is already a bit more west of the 18Z GFS run at 90 hours to the current 84hours on the 00Z NAM.

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84 is decent and nowhere near as bad as the NAM was made out to be. Its probably gonna scrape, but its the 84 hour NAM. Reading here, you would think the low was going to Bermuda.

Ah I wish people would understand, I am just analyzing the 0Z NAM itself, not making a forecast. This run wouldn't do it, that is all I said. Really my thoughts change little based off the NAM.

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trough is not digging as deeply as the euro where it digs into the gulf and goes nuts, it got into the south and then turned east instead of digging more. It is also not cutting off...it was primed to do so at 54 hours and then the whole trough just slides east without amplifying any further. I liked some things about this but in the end there are some negative also. It may yeild a moderate event but this type of evolution probably takes the super bomb solution of the euro off the table.

do you really believe or want to use the NAM at the end of its run can be used to justify that?

would you not agree that it is a HUGE step, vs. all prior runs, toward the Euro?

that's all that matter right now

every run is getting better so no need to take it literally at this time

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84 is decent and nowhere near as bad as the NAM was made out to be. Its probably gonna scrape, but its the 84 hour NAM. Reading here, you would think the low was going to Bermuda.

Agreed. This weenie was reading along thinking the same until I saw the H5 map at 78 then 84 and realized its nowhere as dire as some of the earlier posts.

This is the NAM in its longest range...let's be cognizant of that. Also, it's taken a nice step at 0z.

Good run.

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Or the look can continue and we can get back to an overrunning scenario like the models had before.

you are right, and that is a possibility from this run and would put a 2-4 type event for xmas night back on the table but we would be trading the chance for HECS for a moderate overrunning event. I do not feel the crazy GFS solutions from 3 days ago when its had this west to east overrunning type look to it but yet bombed the low in time to burry DC is realistic. If this does not dig it will slide east and may impact areas with a light to moderate snowfall but nothing major. It must dig like baroclinic is saying if we want a HECS level event.

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Guest someguy

The reaction to the 0zm Nam from many was kooky weenie like and unfounded

m the last 4 of the BOMBING euro has had the Low taking of and cranking over SC

so does the NAM

so how is this out to sea?

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Not a problem, I don't mind people disagreeing with me. I am not a know it all. All I am saying is the details with these bomb noreasters are quite important, and small deviations can eventually yield big changes in the overall track and development. Simple fact is we need this to dig farther S like the ECM or it just won't hook into the coast.

Not really...if you want a historic solution you need to dig that far south. For a more typical Miller B or a hybrid...not really. The NAM would go up the coast...there's already significant snow in NC at the end of the run.

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Ah I wish people would understand, I am just analyzing the 0Z NAM itself, not making a forecast. This run wouldn't do it, that is all I said. Really my thoughts change little based off the NAM.

Thank you for your continued analysis. 99% of us appreciate it and understand what you are saying.

Looks like upper atmosphere is a bit more in line with the surface though, right?

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you are right, and that is a possibility from this run and would put a 2-4 type event for xmas night back on the table but we would be trading the chance for HECS for a moderate overrunning event. I do not feel the crazy GFS solutions from 3 days ago when its had this west to east overrunning type look to it but yet bombed the low in time to burry DC is realistic. If this does not dig it will slide east and may impact areas with a light to moderate snowfall but nothing major. It must dig like baroclinic is saying if we want a HECS level event.

Exactly, I want an HECS. Snowman.gif

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quick analysis....

hour 30 southern wave starts to interact with piece of energy over SD....this cause the southern stream wave to go from positive (ie. stop moving SE into TX) to slightly negative at hour 48...it's responsible for the more widespread snow in the OH valley and eventually light snow in the MA late on christmas.

this interaction is not allowing the southern stream to sink into TX and wait for the main jet streak....thus you have a main trough which only digs into the TN Valley instead of the gulf coast...which when the full phase occurs you have less time to pull this thing up the coast....

not saying its right or wrong...but the main difference between this run of the NAM and the last 4 runs of the Euro is ultimately how deep the main trough digs prior to and as it goes negative...

just thoughts

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Ah I wish people would understand, I am just analyzing the 0Z NAM itself, not making a forecast. This run wouldn't do it, that is all I said. Really my thoughts change little based off the NAM.

everyone, including myself, thought the early phase look would mean more west and stronger, you said it would probably be a bad thing. Looks like you called it. Didn't end up terrible, but not what most of us were thinking at the beginning of that run.

nice job

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The NAM joins the rest forming a closed 5h low over the MA, good news. Don't sweat the details outside of 60h ladies and germs...from what I see it didn't miss by a whole lot. The NAM is on board for a major system IMO, let's see what tomorrow brings.

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The reaction to the 0zm Nam from many was kooky weenie like and unfounded

m the last 4 of the BOMBING euro has had the Low taking of and cranking over SC

so does the NAM

so how is this out to sea?

That's why I mentioned you above Dave, this is almost exactly what you'd circled (vorticity in the carolinas) two days ago. The timing has jumped ahead quite a bit, but the end solution is likely to be pretty similar.

I think the NAM looks fantastic.

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Guest someguy

the NAM just gave DCA/BWI an inch or two of snow and the Euro had nothing for us through that time period

I like the NAM tonight

anybody in DCA/BWI area with me?

keep in Mind Mitch the Euro is Muich slower with this event so snow into DC sat afternoon would be faster

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