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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010


Dr No

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Baroclinic is right though, the Euro has a truly historic solution because it keys on the southern energy. It keeps that stronger and does not dampen it out. The northern branch then digs and amplifies into that. This solution the northern branch dominates and completely squashes the southern system, then it tries to amplify something by itself but it will not be the monster solution of the euro if this is purely northern branch generated. We need that southern system to remain an entity and have the northern branch amplify that, not squash it.

Or the look can continue and we can get back to an overrunning scenario like the models had before.

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I appreciate your analysis, but I am just not seeing it.

Not a problem, I don't mind people disagreeing with me. I am not a know it all. All I am saying is the details with these bomb noreasters are quite important, and small deviations can eventually yield big changes in the overall track and development. Simple fact is we need this to dig farther S like the ECM or it just won't hook into the coast.

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This run is not bad at all. You have a closed H5 low in the Oh valley, big vortmax rounding the base of the trough over the southeast, and a strong jet on the back side of this trough. Stronger jet on the backside means digging. This storm looks to come north and longitude would help here, but it's not horrible all things considered. NAM 84 hrs being one of them.

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NAM now would take this thing and bomb it, but it would hit nobody. I hope the fast S/W trend does not continue. Probably a blip, but the 18Z GFS suggested this as well.

Yeah, it definitely wouldn't hit anybody, which is why the low is significantly further NW than 18z and why we actually have overunning precip on Christmas and why the trough is more negatively titled and why there's more ridging in front

totally!

it's not the EURO but I don;t know what you seem to expect from the NAM 48hrs+ out... it's trending and that's enough for me, you're making the situation seem dire.

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NAM is also not going negative at all in the trough. Look at hour 54, 60, 66, and 72. The trough axis remains the same, its ready to go negative by 54 and then just slides east and doesn't. Its not separating and digging in, the whole trough is just sliding east in a progressive way. This is a totally new solution, and kind of a step back towards the west to east solutions of a few days ago...but it is not a step towards the euro.

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This run looks fine to me. I have no idea what some of you are seeing.

Me too. The timing is very different which obviously means we have to watch the other runs for support, but I have no idea what all the freaking out is about. It's going to be a huge low wrapping up, it's not OTS like so many said.

Wow on the bridge jumping. That's going to be a monster.

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This run is not bad at all. You have a closed H5 low in the Oh valley, big vortmax rounding the base of the trough over the southeast, and a strong jet on the back side of this trough. Stronger jet on the backside means digging. This storm looks to come north and longitude would help here, but it's not horrible all things considered. NAM 84 hrs being one of them.

thank you thank you thank you

it is so much better than all previous NAM runs and some mets are talking it like its written in stone and the changes are meaningless

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This run is not bad at all. You have a closed H5 low in the Oh valley, big vortmax rounding the base of the trough over the southeast, and a strong jet on the back side of this trough. Stronger jet on the backside means digging. This storm looks to come north and longitude would help here, but it's not horrible all things considered. NAM 84 hrs being one of them.

100% agree Scott.

The timing I think has thrown people off. Isn't this essentially what DT drew up a day or two ago with a vortmax cutting up the Carolina coast?

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This run looks fine to me. I have no idea what some of you are seeing.

trough is not digging as deeply as the euro where it digs into the gulf and goes nuts, it got into the south and then turned east instead of digging more. It is also not cutting off...it was primed to do so at 54 hours and then the whole trough just slides east without amplifying any further. I liked some things about this but in the end there are some negative also. It may yeild a moderate event but this type of evolution probably takes the super bomb solution of the euro off the table.

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Yeah, it definitely wouldn't hit anybody, which is why the low is significantly further NW than 18z and why we actually have overunning precip on Christmas and why the trough is more negatively titled and why there's more ridging in front

totally!

it's not the EURO but I don;t know what you seem to expect from the NAM 48hrs+ out... it's trending and that's enough for me, you're making the situation seem dire.

No I am not If you read what I said, I mentioned that this NAM run won't be it. I haven't changed my thoughts on the storm potential at all. We are analzying the 0Z guidance, and the NAM is a part of it This NAM run won't do it, but that is ok. I am not changing any of my thoughts based on the NAM.

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