stormtracker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's really not as dire as it was made out to be...at least not IMO. We have a low off of SC at 78. It may not be the Euro, but its close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM now would take this thing and bomb it, but it would hit nobody. I hope the fast S/W trend does not continue. Probably a blip, but the 18Z GFS suggested this as well. yeah, trough is too broad at 78, might be a coastal scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I appreciate your analysis, but I am just not seeing it. Ditto. Hour 78 lots of energy coming down the back side of the trough, gonna be close but it should be enough to get the sfc low to head up the coast. Haven't seen 84 yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I appreciate your analysis, but I am just not seeing it. i agree with you. i think this will be very close, if not a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Baroclinic is right though, the Euro has a truly historic solution because it keys on the southern energy. It keeps that stronger and does not dampen it out. The northern branch then digs and amplifies into that. This solution the northern branch dominates and completely squashes the southern system, then it tries to amplify something by itself but it will not be the monster solution of the euro if this is purely northern branch generated. We need that southern system to remain an entity and have the northern branch amplify that, not squash it. Or the look can continue and we can get back to an overrunning scenario like the models had before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 There is some really lousy model interpretation going on here. The trough is going neutral earlier so that means its OTS??? Compare the 78 hr 500mb at 00z with the 84hr 500 mb at 18z. The 00z run is much better and I cant believe how anyone can see it differently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I appreciate your analysis, but I am just not seeing it. Not a problem, I don't mind people disagreeing with me. I am not a know it all. All I am saying is the details with these bomb noreasters are quite important, and small deviations can eventually yield big changes in the overall track and development. Simple fact is we need this to dig farther S like the ECM or it just won't hook into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I appreciate your analysis, but I am just not seeing it. Me either. I like what I see at 78. It may not be the mega bomb, but it still looks pretty good. Under normal circumstances I think we'd have been happy with that 78 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM has light snow up north out ahead of the developing low.. not sure we have seen this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Maybe this has some sort of impact on the final solution and why it's so odd compared to other models. It certainly didn't have "better" data out in the ocean when it was essentially in lock step with last night's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run is not bad at all. You have a closed H5 low in the Oh valley, big vortmax rounding the base of the trough over the southeast, and a strong jet on the back side of this trough. Stronger jet on the backside means digging. This storm looks to come north and longitude would help here, but it's not horrible all things considered. NAM 84 hrs being one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM now would take this thing and bomb it, but it would hit nobody. I hope the fast S/W trend does not continue. Probably a blip, but the 18Z GFS suggested this as well. Yeah, it definitely wouldn't hit anybody, which is why the low is significantly further NW than 18z and why we actually have overunning precip on Christmas and why the trough is more negatively titled and why there's more ridging in front totally! it's not the EURO but I don;t know what you seem to expect from the NAM 48hrs+ out... it's trending and that's enough for me, you're making the situation seem dire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ay 78 hrs that 5H Low is ready to cut off and/or trough go negative loop it http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/index_500_l_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM is also not going negative at all in the trough. Look at hour 54, 60, 66, and 72. The trough axis remains the same, its ready to go negative by 54 and then just slides east and doesn't. Its not separating and digging in, the whole trough is just sliding east in a progressive way. This is a totally new solution, and kind of a step back towards the west to east solutions of a few days ago...but it is not a step towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run looks fine to me. I have no idea what some of you are seeing. Me too. The timing is very different which obviously means we have to watch the other runs for support, but I have no idea what all the freaking out is about. It's going to be a huge low wrapping up, it's not OTS like so many said. Wow on the bridge jumping. That's going to be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't see this as a miller b at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run looks fine to me. I have no idea what some of you are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run is not bad at all. You have a closed H5 low in the Oh valley, big vortmax rounding the base of the trough over the southeast, and a strong jet on the back side of this trough. Stronger jet on the backside means digging. This storm looks to come north and longitude would help here, but it's not horrible all things considered. NAM 84 hrs being one of them. thank you thank you thank you it is so much better than all previous NAM runs and some mets are talking it like its written in stone and the changes are meaningless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ditto. Hour 78 lots of energy coming down the back side of the trough, gonna be close but it should be enough to get the sfc low to head up the coast. Haven't seen 84 yet... money post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run is not bad at all. You have a closed H5 low in the Oh valley, big vortmax rounding the base of the trough over the southeast, and a strong jet on the back side of this trough. Stronger jet on the backside means digging. This storm looks to come north and longitude would help here, but it's not horrible all things considered. NAM 84 hrs being one of them. 100% agree Scott. The timing I think has thrown people off. Isn't this essentially what DT drew up a day or two ago with a vortmax cutting up the Carolina coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 84 is out and it's in the same location as the 12z GFS, just 6 hours faster and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 and there you have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run looks fine to me. I have no idea what some of you are seeing. trough is not digging as deeply as the euro where it digs into the gulf and goes nuts, it got into the south and then turned east instead of digging more. It is also not cutting off...it was primed to do so at 54 hours and then the whole trough just slides east without amplifying any further. I liked some things about this but in the end there are some negative also. It may yeild a moderate event but this type of evolution probably takes the super bomb solution of the euro off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 84 is decent and nowhere near as bad as the NAM was made out to be. Its probably gonna scrape, but its the 84 hour NAM. Reading here, you would think the low was going to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 As mentioned above, the ridging on this run looks really good. We are almost there with the NAM, which will have to wait till tomorrow. So, the rough over East looks pretty good. To me, its a nice signature for a big storm. Its a step toward the big storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 unless its going due north after 84 (which i dont know maybe its possible with that setup) its going to go ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 thank you thank you thank you it is so much better than all previous NAM runs and some mets are talking it like its written in stone and the changes are meaningless Well longitude would clearly help verbatim if this verified, but I don't think it's all that bad given the timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, it definitely wouldn't hit anybody, which is why the low is significantly further NW than 18z and why we actually have overunning precip on Christmas and why the trough is more negatively titled and why there's more ridging in front totally! it's not the EURO but I don;t know what you seem to expect from the NAM 48hrs+ out... it's trending and that's enough for me, you're making the situation seem dire. No I am not If you read what I said, I mentioned that this NAM run won't be it. I haven't changed my thoughts on the storm potential at all. We are analzying the 0Z guidance, and the NAM is a part of it This NAM run won't do it, but that is ok. I am not changing any of my thoughts based on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Early bird shortwave spoils the whole thing on this run. Exactly like FEB 3rd 2009 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2009/us0203.php If anyone says it's the NAM I'll strangle them. I know it's the NAM and I don't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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