baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This NAM run is garbage. The low level thermal gradient is all messed up. This thing will likely do squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I can't tell as of yet and the NAM is now updating beyond hour 60 which means I won't trust what it shows anyhow unless the ensuing models look the same...this scenario while I think it works for C NJ on northeastward kills most of the MA and likely also tempers the blizzard potential for the NE and SNE outside of far northern New England. don;t worry because this NAM scenario, at this range, won't work out like this in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I totally agree with Barcolinic here...This is not the solution you want if you want a big storm, it doesnt tap the gulf, and it doesnt give it time for the northern stream to jump in....Hopefully just a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This NAM run is garbage. The low level thermal gradient is all messed up. This thing will likely do squat. well that doesnt surprise i bet it doesnt surprise you either haha. having the euro/gfs/ggem on our side over the nam is some pretty good company right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's totally different than the Euro though. Way way faster... and it keeps a s/w up in canada through 60 which the euro was phasing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 don;t worry because this NAM scenario, at this range, won't work out like this in the end The NAM often overamps things at 72-84 with solutions being too far N/W but seeing it earlier on means it could have some weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 60 hours, 500H winds over PA are SW verses NW at 12Z. Ridge is really pumped up out ahead of the system. Is it the new data or does the NAM not have a clue? It's about to really get rocking by 60/66, trough is loaded and ready to roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 lol, the NAM sped up the southern vort by 100s of miles, it disappeared and now this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Vortmax right at the base of the troff at 60hrs. Classic bombing signal, It may happen further north along the coast than last run. Impoertant thing is, Big change from 18z. All models will likely be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's about to really get rocking by 60/66, trough is loaded and ready to roll. please take a step back and read some of the posts by mets here in this thread before posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's about to really get rocking by 60/66, trough is loaded and ready to roll. Trust me its not, the NAM isnt phasing the northern branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 this ain't bad folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm not smart enough to know what's going on but on the 18Z 66 hour there's a nice 564 Vort sitting over central TX. On the 0Z there's absolutely nothing. Sucked into the northern stream and is a mess. What the..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I totally agree with Barcolinic here...This is not the solution you want if you want a big storm, it doesnt tap the gulf, and it doesnt give it time for the northern stream to jump in....Hopefully just a blip Exactly. We need the GOM for self development because it significantly aids in development owing to latent heat release in the low levels in the early cyclogenesis process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 IMO, 72hr 00z NAM looks awfully similar to the 78hr panel of the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 please take a step back and read some of the posts by mets here in this thread before posting. The energy coming out of central Canada looks great, don't need anyone to tell me that and neither do you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Apparently the Vanderburg AFB RAOB doesn't launch at 00z.. that data gap is right over where the ULL is.. that is disappointing. Maybe this has some sort of impact on the final solution and why it's so odd compared to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 wonder if this will set the trend for tonight...there must be something in the new RAOB data causing the NAM to speed the s/w up much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 People are throwing in the towel so soon. Look at the torpedo of vorticity slamming south out of Manitoba at 60 hr. That should sharpen the trough just as it nears the coast and should slow it and keep the intensifying surface reflection from scooting out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run looks fine to me. I have no idea what some of you are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 For all those commenting on the speed, don't forget that the 18z gfs also sped this thing up quite a bit also. Everyone said that once the sw got onshore in Cal. that the modeling would probably be more realistic. Just because this isn't what we wanted doesn't mean we can just say its garbage. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying its right. Heck, I don't know enough to even claim that. But we are getting closer to the event. So logic would say that the models will get closer with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 SLP now showing up over FL at 72 hours the NAM continues to move to the Euro it isn't going to happen in 1 run its a slow morph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 what could the NAM be seeing that gives it the notion to hurry this along? Not sure if the "new data" is spotty/incomplete as some have said, but theres something that the model is having a fit over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 78, 1006 low jsut off the coast of sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 1008 low near Myrtle Beach at 78 while there's still lots of digging occurring. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM now would take this thing and bomb it, but it would hit nobody. I hope the fast S/W trend does not continue. Probably a blip, but the 18Z GFS suggested this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM now would take this thing and bomb it, but it would hit nobody. I hope the fast S/W trend does not continue. Probably a blip, but the 18Z GFS suggested this as well. I appreciate your analysis, but I am just not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 dont mean to beat on the pro's but this is not a miller b.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Baroclinic is right though, the Euro has a truly historic solution because it keys on the southern energy. It keeps that stronger and does not dampen it out. The northern branch then digs and amplifies into that. This solution the northern branch dominates and completely squashes the southern system, then it tries to amplify something by itself but it will not be the monster solution of the euro if this is purely northern branch generated. We need that southern system to remain an entity and have the northern branch amplify that, not squash it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 now its gonna' pop 1008 Low off SC at 78 closed 850 Low too (actually 2 centers, but the southern one looks to take over) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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