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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010


Dr No

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I can't tell as of yet and the NAM is now updating beyond hour 60 which means I won't trust what it shows anyhow unless the ensuing models look the same...this scenario while I think it works for C NJ on northeastward kills most of the MA and likely also tempers the blizzard potential for the NE and SNE outside of far northern New England.

don;t worry because this NAM scenario, at this range, won't work out like this in the end

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I totally agree with Barcolinic here...This is not the solution you want if you want a big storm, it doesnt tap the gulf, and it doesnt give it time for the northern stream to jump in....Hopefully just a blip

Exactly. We need the GOM for self development because it significantly aids in development owing to latent heat release in the low levels in the early cyclogenesis process.

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For all those commenting on the speed, don't forget that the 18z gfs also sped this thing up quite a bit also. Everyone said that once the sw got onshore in Cal. that the modeling would probably be more realistic. Just because this isn't what we wanted doesn't mean we can just say its garbage. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying its right. Heck, I don't know enough to even claim that. But we are getting closer to the event. So logic would say that the models will get closer with each run.

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Baroclinic is right though, the Euro has a truly historic solution because it keys on the southern energy. It keeps that stronger and does not dampen it out. The northern branch then digs and amplifies into that. This solution the northern branch dominates and completely squashes the southern system, then it tries to amplify something by itself but it will not be the monster solution of the euro if this is purely northern branch generated. We need that southern system to remain an entity and have the northern branch amplify that, not squash it.

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