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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010


Dr No

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preciep......orhwxman says that sv maps might be a bit genrouse with liquid.....but this is fwiw

DC .10

PHL .50+

NYC close to a inch liquid

BOS 1.75+ not all snow

So with this kind of track, western long island might be the best place to be-- all snow and at least 1" water equivalent.... now just to get this to hold lol.

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yes....and we shall see if it holds

Yea, and there's a large margin of error with a sharp cut off just to our west.

These are the totals tombo came up with based on that model run-- pretty similar to the euro run from last night, although different track and speed:

qpf

dca .1

bwi .25

phl .75

nyc 1-1.1

ttn .8

abe .5

rdg .4

hazleton .25

acy 1.5

dov .75

mmu .75

eastern li 1.5-1.75

central li 1.25-1.5

western li 1-1.25

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DC only get .10" from this? Crazy.

f96.gif

Watch out for these types of large areal maps. They make it ard to see tight gradients and they make DC look close to berylington. The 500mb low closes off over WV and the precip backs inot NJ, EPA. It misses DC by 150 miles, but it's hard to see on that map.

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The Dec 31 storm wasnt anything like this storm. This storm is tapping into so much gulf moisture unlike the DEC 31, so I think the Mid Atlantic cities will definitely see a storm. I just think its going to be the 4-8 inch type and not the 12-18 incher like PHI, NYC, BOS will possibly see.

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It looks like Doug Hill might not have been so crazy after all.

not sure what he said.....but when only ONE model shows a given solution, regardless of its track record- how can you ignore the pattern, and all other models. none were showing anything close to the Euro...the Canadian was closest but has steadily trended away from that for 3 runs now. GFS has come closer but its really just back to what it showed days ago- a scraper for the MA and a nice hit for parts of NE. Again this looks to be much like the December 2000 storm.

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The Dec 31 storm wasnt anything like this storm. This storm is tapping into so much gulf moisture unlike the DEC 31, so I think the Mid Atlantic cities will definitely see a storm. I just think its going to be the 4-8 inch type and not the 12-18 incher like PHI, NYC, BOS will possibly see.

we will see. but i see alot of similarities in the evolution as the models are depicting.....not really any front end warm advection precip, offshore track, precip all CCB driven. late phase and gets captured and pulled back in to give a nice hit for NE. coastal MA may do ok....dont see how DC does though.

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not sure what he said.....but when only ONE model shows a given solution, regardless of its track record- how can you ignore the pattern, and all other models. none were showing anything close to the Euro...the Canadian was closest but has steadily trended away from that for 3 runs now. GFS has come closer but its really just back to what it showed days ago- a scraper for the MA and a nice hit for parts of NE. Again this looks to be much like the December 2000 storm.

Not necessarily true... The Euro has its ensemble support as well as tonights gfs 0z ensemble mean/members..

At this point it still is hard to tell if its trending or has come up to its solution but seeing that we are seeing a continual shift to a more euroesque solution it seems to be shifting especially as we saw @ 12z today and with tonights 0z ensemble mean farther west than the 0z gfs OP...

Another thing to remember is that this is still 100 hrs, any final solution will most likely be locked in within the next 24-48 hrs as this s/w that just entered into california makes its way east...

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Not necessarily true... The Euro has its ensemble support as well as tonights gfs 0z ensemble mean/members..

At this point it still is hard to tell if its trending or has come up to its solution but seeing that we are seeing a continual shift to a more euroesque solution it seems to be shifting especially as we saw @ 12z today and with tonights 0z ensemble mean farther west than the 0z gfs OP...

Another thing to remember is that this is still 100 hrs, any final solution will most likely be locked in within the next 24-48 hrs as this s/w that just entered into california makes its way east...

not saying this will be a total miss....just didn't buy into the all out historic bomb the euro was showing. that would be rare in any year...but in a la nina? could be nice hit for eastern VA, maybe parts of Delmarva in the MA. but looks better for Philly and north per the modeling right now.

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