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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010


Dr No

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Can't say I feel one way or the other at this point. We had to expect that the Euro would waver at some point. Like someone said on the radio show tonight...no way it holds the same solution until the event. If it holds tomorrow and the American models continue to show just east of ideal...then that's just how it goes

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In retrospect, slower NRN stream and Faster southern stream were bad trends

That NRN stream needs time to dig so the 500mb low can close further South

Still looking okay SE of I95 and it (Edit): Does back in and clobber NE.

Lesson Learned.

Strong Ninas will find a way to suck for the MA.

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Cant believe after 6 straight runs of hits, Euro caves to GFS. Guess this can still move back west some, but I think the dreams of monster bomb from before are well out of reach, except for those north of the MA i guess.

Way too early to make such a statement.

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Wasn't this Op Euro run closer to it's recent ensemble means whereas the last two runs were western outliers (compared to their respective means)? This type of solution had to be inevitable given the recent ensembles. If this run is near the ensemble mean for tonight, the MA is still not out of it but SNE and NNE have the cone shifting in their direction.

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Wasn't this Op Euro run closer to it's recent ensemble means whereas the last two runs were western outliers (compared to their respective means)? This type of solution had to be inevitable given the recent ensembles. If this run is near the ensemble mean for tonight, the MA is still not out of it but SNE and NNE have the cone shifting in their direction.

The GFS ensembles have been shifting west the last several runs, so again, no reason to jump off a bridge. The 12Z NAM will be telling...

EDIT: ensemble mean has been shifting west

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