Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So, nightly UKMET rumor-mongering aside, anyone know what it actually did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Headed to Mecca. No surprise there, the UKMET has been insanely progressive on everything so far, including the lakes event 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yet another totally different solution from the "second best model"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It is believed that this resulted in the 500 wave being open on the initialization, this could have had some impact, but I doubt anything major. Well, the previous runs had the feature in question over the ocean....so I can't see any errors being generated because of this vs. previous runs (that were more "favorable").... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 No surprise there, the UKMET has been insanely progressive on everything so far, including the lakes event 2 weeks ago. Lol... Got to hand it to out 2nd best model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I bet I could get some sleep then!!! Working on 8 hours of sleep over last 3 nights. Hey, Midlo, you gonna do the Euro in this thread tonight?? yes and for all you crying posters save this and make it your desktop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Honestly I'm hoping for the sake of the event occurring we're having issues with the northern branch possibly but I wouldn't bet the house on it. I currently have 150$ on the table with an unnamed NE U.S. NWS forecaster that the 00Z Euro is a complete miss and is east of the 00Z GFS run...I like my odds...goodness La Ninas are awful, what can I say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You may want to rethink this post. The weather pattern we have been is has hardly been acting like a La Nina. Dont you just love it when people try to simplify the pattern by just mentioning one factor and ignoring everything else? And ignoring the fact that la nina / neg nao combos have lead to some of our biggest winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Honestly I'm hoping for the sake of the event occurring we're having issues with the northern branch possibly but I wouldn't bet the house on it. I currently have 150$ on the table with an unnamed NE U.S. NWS forecaster that the 00Z Euro is a complete miss and is east of the 00Z GFS run...I like my odds...goodness La Ninas are awful, what can I say... You have to qualify this to strong la ninas lol-- because weak ones are actually our second most productive ENSO in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 It is believed that this resulted in the 500 wave being open on the initialization, this could have had some impact, but I doubt anything major. If this did have an impact, then theoretically, the Euro should stay on course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Why that would be shocking news to any is bizarre but you're correct for the most part....outside of its last run the Euro has been west of 80-90% of its ensemble members, the last run was the only one which really deviated from that tendency...Upton's AFD said the best guess NOW is a track just SE of the benchmark and I cannot agree with that more...as of now this is without a doubt a miss for most, but we've got at least another 24-48 hours for that to right itself the other direction...no matter what tonight's runs show. SG, what is the best track for us? I had always read that a track just SE of the benchmark is ideal, as a benchmark or west track can bring mixing issues to the coast. Obviously, this would also depend on the antecedent airmass (for example, the Millenium storm was all snow here with a track over Suffolk Cnty.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nice to see somone is on my side. Thought I was the first to jump ship. Sorry Weenies. I felt the last event was going to come west at day 4-5, I'm not falling into the same trap this time, the ridge out west is just too far east for my liking and hence the trough on the East Coast too....this thing is going to have to make a hard left under the current 500mb setup most models show and those hard lefts are relatively unusual....at least for folks south of 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I felt the last event was going to come west at day 4-5, I'm not falling into the same trap this time, the ridge out west is just too far east for my liking and hence the trough on the East Coast too....this thing is going to have to make a hard left under the current 500mb setup most models show and those hard lefts are relatively unusual....at least for folks south of 40N. The record breaking precipitation in the southwest is pretty damn unusual, particularly given this is a nina. People are overplaying the nina card in this pattern. If anything this is more of a nino pattern because of the blockign and strong southern branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 you need a weenie tag. "la ninas are awful" - lol severe blocking NOT awful lol It certainly was for New England last winter. I particularly remember the 2/6 event last year missing me by not even 30 miles because we were overwhelmed with -NAO driven confluence. 12-18" 50 miles southwest of NYC, Central Park had a trace. Blocking can certainly help develop a storm, but when it's not willing to cooperate it can certainly crush one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It certainly was for New England last winter. I particularly remember the 2/6 event last year missing me by not even 30 miles because we were overwhelmed with -NAO driven confluence. 12-18" 50 miles southwest of NYC, Central Park had a trace. Blocking can certainly help develop a storm, but when it's not willing to cooperate it can certainly crush one too. There's definitely a lot more probability of a storm missing than hitting with pretty much any storm, simply because the data set pathways for misses is much greater than it is for hits. We basically have like a 100 mile window in which to get in on the snow-- too far west and it mixes, too far east and it goes into the Atlantic. This is the case with most storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Great points JM!! I can attest to this, IPT had 2.6 inches from that event, State College 12+. Blocking is fickle. But I'm sure you'd rather have blocking than not! Blocking at least makes the weather more interesting and at least gives you the potential threats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 SG, what is the best track for us? I had always read that a track just SE of the benchmark is ideal, as a benchmark or west track can bring mixing issues to the coast. Obviously, this would also depend on the antecedent airmass (for example, the Millenium storm was all snow here with a track over Suffolk Cnty.) I think that we're not needing quite as perfect a solution as the DC/western VA/Carolinas people do because we have some wiggle room they don't in the storm consolidating and heading north. The Millennium blizzard and even the 2/25 event last year is evidence of that. It's all about where the phase occurs and where the capture occurs. However, the pattern is progressive overall so I don't think there'll be a storm that charges due north. It might stall for a while and then resume NE, but not a straight north cutter that leaves DC dry and gives Boston rain. Euro should be out in 45 mins, hopefully we're all in a slightly more confident mood soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The record breaking precipitation in the southwest is pretty damn unusual, particularly given this is a nina. People are overplaying the nina card in this pattern. If anything this is more of a nino pattern because of the blockign and strong southern branch. the funny thing is mod-strong la ninas usually teleconnect to SE ridging, and we havent seen much of that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The record breaking precipitation in the southwest is pretty damn unusual, particularly given this is a nina. People are overplaying the nina card in this pattern. If anything this is more of a nino pattern because of the blockign and strong southern branch. I think the SW was wet in December of 1984 as well, the East Coast saw record warmth that month but did actually get one big snow event I believe near the end of the month...the rest of that winter turned out quite well for cold and there were some snow events but that was a weaker Nina if not even borderline neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 actual conditions at 0z 500mb model initial gfs nam ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Think it was only mentioned in passing, not sure why but the 00Z GFS ensembles are west of the 18Z solutions. The spread is smaller at 78-96h but maybe take a close look, something slightly west of this might be our evenutal solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Honestly I'm hoping for the sake of the event occurring we're having issues with the northern branch possibly but I wouldn't bet the house on it. I currently have 150$ on the table with an unnamed NE U.S. NWS forecaster that the 00Z Euro is a complete miss and is east of the 00Z GFS run...I like my odds...goodness La Ninas are awful, what can I say... Ekster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 actual conditions at 0z 500mb model initial gfs nam ukie The WV imagery is actual conditions but the overlaid RUC analysis is just what the others are, a model analysis, and it actually has less data to work with to create the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 come on guys take the nina talk to the regional forums thankies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro initialized... More scared than last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Noting the GFS and NAM from last weeks storm threat approx, 96h and 72h Euro, had a storm, then at 60h 18z both Nam and GFS introduced that funky looking dbl low weak solution and never looked back. Tonights GFS/NAM runs remind of that. Not be negative or jumping of the bus, actually was never on it. I am waiting to see what the consenses will be at 60h. I can't trust any Model outside of 60h unless there is very good agreement. Also, wouldn't be suprised to see tonights EC split the dif between GFS /NAM (which was very good IMO, upper levels and GEFS looked real good). On to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the funny thing is mod-strong la ninas usually teleconnect to SE ridging, and we havent seen much of that either. It is interesting how Dec has played out. The crazy -AO and what appears to be a long term -NAO cycle has pretty much negated Nina climo so far. All the doom and gloom going into this winter because of the strong Nina has proven to be no problem at all. I doubt our luck on the EC will continue through the whole winter but a long duration torch could be off the table. Dec temp anomoly has been way below even the most bullish early forecasts. Jan may relax a bit but there are hints of blocking and -AO and -NAO returning. Feb climo during a Nina can be pretty good too. March in the MA is never much to hold hopes up for. After the 15th we may as well just torch and move on to spring. Late March storms around here are just a slopfest and are very rare anyway. Gotta wonder about the SE ridge now. It was such a PITA last decade that I thought it was permanent. Now it isn't even on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 18 no real changes so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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