Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 0Z NAM has initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 00z San Diego SkewT had a 5530m 500mb height with a 205 degree wind at 32 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nearly identical to the 18Z @ this point, except that our little s/w isn't closed off as it enters the CA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 1:49 AM, Tiburon said: Nearly identical to the 18Z @ this point, except that our little s/w isn't closed off as it enters the CA coast. Different analyses, different data with the s/w. This is the RUC analysis: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ~00z data analysis in some important regions. Still waiting for the 840p maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Apparently the Vanderburg AFB RAOB doesn't launch at 00z.. that data gap is right over where the ULL is.. that is disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Will the 0Z analysis even be included in the 0Z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 1:54 AM, KMUWx91 said: Apparently the Vanderburg AFB RAOB doesn't launch at 00z.. Data gap is right over where the ULL is.. that is disappointing. Given the San Diego data...I think you can extrapolate at least a 552 dm trough or closed low to northwest. I'd bet it's closed given the Euro data from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z NAM at 18h 500 is considerably slower with energy about to head into MT and ND vs the earlier runs. EDIT: Lower end of the trough is a little more progressive, slightly more positively tilted. Tough to tell how it will all play out but I'm liking the dakotas energy already beginning to interact at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredRed Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Best site for comparing run to run changes: http://www.wxforecas...AM_00Z_500.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 2:03 AM, FredRed said: Best site for comparing run to run changes: http://www.wxforecas...AM_00Z_500.html What a terrific trend thus far regarding the northern stream heights and early, early stages of phasing over the Northern Plains back towards the International Border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I agree... great changes for the better over the plains, including slightly heigher heights out in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Lower heights in the Plains at 30 compared to 18z. Seems like the northern stream is beginning to drop in already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Southern stream SW is a good amount faster in 0z compared to 18z. EDIT: Did even the Euro start phasing this early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 2:07 AM, LVblizzard said: Lower heights in the Plains at 30 compared to 18z. Seems like the northern stream is beginning to drop in already. yea wow this storm is really trending towars the euro thus far as far as phasing, continuing the trends as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is going to pump the ridge ahead big time, much earlier than previous progs......I think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Definitely some more northern stream action already occurring when compared to the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Already beginning to phase at 36. Substantially more so compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Crikey... with the phasing going on already by 36,... might have to think of overrunning christmas snow starting sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow. Can't believe the positive changes on this run. Now does it become an issue of cutting north too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 2:12 AM, Dr No said: Crikey... with the phasing going on already by 36,... might have to think of overrunning christmas snow starting sooner. Could be a case of an American model overcorrecting. The GFS tends to do that when trending as well. Good run so far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 2:11 AM, LakeEffectKing said: This is going to pump the ridge ahead big time, much earlier than previous progs......I think.... Yeah, check a quick comparison of 36hr H5 from 00z and 42hr H5 from 18z and the differences are dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is a massive change from earlier NAM runs. For those overlaying, how is this comparing to the EC runs? Not only do we have timing differences, but trajectory of features coming down out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Early phase is not good. It will be OTS if it is too fast as discussed in the 18Z thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 42 NAM looks like the GFS did at like 138 96 hours ago when it had the storm doing well on EC....that's good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 2:15 AM, baroclinic_instability said: Early phase is not good. It will be OTS if it is too fast as discussed in the 18Z thread. It looks to go neutral tilt at 42. So I disagree- this solution is not OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 woah. hr 42. we seriously might have to consider overunning as DrNo mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If this thing never detaches from the northern stream it remains N and doesn't tap the GOM, game over. Also, as discussed in the 18Z forum, the trough won't deepen far enough S...both game over solutions. I don't like this NAM run already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow. Very interesting change with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 2:15 AM, baroclinic_instability said: Early phase is not good. It will be OTS if it is too fast as discussed in the 18Z thread. Not this early....It may go neg tilt sooner...not going out to sea with the height field ahead of it developing.....NE PV is hauling ass..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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