Bob's Burgers Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Latest VAD/Hodo with Breckenridge obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 The storm over Lueders seems to be developing a hook and may be showing signs of strengthening rotation. Any rotation that develops out of this storm could move closer to (or even over) Albany. I do not want to see this happen seeing that Albany got hit with a tornado less than a month ago on March 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Big hook between Lueders and Albany. Artifacts on the KDYX radar near the radar site might make the strength of the rotation look stronger that it actually is, but I would not be surprised to see a tornado warning if the rotation strengthens. EDIT: good news is that the rotation looks pretty ragged as it moves into Albany. This could change, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Meso out for upcoming tornado watch for north Texas to the east of the present watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Meso out for upcoming tornado watch for north Texas to the east of the present watch. Little worried for the metroplex tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Not sure what the issue is, but something is really causing these storms to struggle to spin today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 There is a huge storm coming into the north side of the Del Rio area right now. The storm core is still on the Mexican side of the border, but I'm surprised that there is not a severe thunderstorm warning out already given the proximity. 34 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Little worried for the metroplex tbh We are getting some rain right now, so that might have a stabilizing effect. Interestingly enough the area of rain seems to be under the cloud debris from the storms that went up down by San Angelo. Many years ago I remember how anvil rain eroded a cap over the Metroplex and caused supercells to form unexpectedly; not expecting tonight will be like that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: There is a huge storm coming into the north side of the Del Rio area right now. The storm core is still on the Mexican side of the border, but I'm surprised that there is not a severe thunderstorm warning out already given the proximity. was just about to post this this is the start of the show... ......models develop this into a complex and move it across the deep south but this is what could mess things up for tomorrow as I menioned edit:T-storm warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Warning is hoisted now. Big TBSS on it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The severe thunderstorm warning for Del Rio and points north is now up. The storm is warned for 1.25 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 It also looks as if there is a possible couplet just SW of Del Rio based on velocity data. Given storm motions, this area of rotation will go right over Del Rio. No tornado warning at this time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: SPC down playing TOR threat 01z outlook THE ONLY CHANGE ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE REMOVAL OF THE 10% TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OK INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WHERE ONGOING STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A RATHER MESSY MODE THROUGH MULTIPLE INTERACTIONS/MERGERS. That was the northern unhatched 10% region. The southern hatched 10% region still remains from Del Rio to Austin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 00z HRRR interesting for SAT Hel swath wise LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Here’s the couplet near Del Rio. If anything, that RFD looks pretty strong. Probably had some strong winds in Ciudad Acuña with that activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 This thing could be trouble for San Antonio in a couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, MUWX said: This thing could be trouble for San Antonio in a couple hours That's what I was thinking. It would need to follow US-90 for that to happen though; if the storm continues to take a right turn it might pass just south of the metro if it holds together. Even if it took somewhat of a left turn relative to the US-90 corridor (that's doubtful), San Antonio sprawls out much more to the north than to the south. The most intense part of the storm is still about 40 minutes from Brackettville; eastward motion is only 25 mph. San Antonio has several hours before this particular storm hits, but if anything develops ahead of this they could get storms sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 840 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 840 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH LIKELY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Main event might actually start a little bit later. Mesoscale Discussion 0339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Areas affected...The Edwards Plateau area of Texas and adjacent Rio Grande Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 120051Z - 120215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk is forecast to increase with time across the Edwards Plateau and vicinity. Large hail should be the main risk, though potential for locally damaging winds a possibly a tornado or two will also exist. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a persistent storm just to the Mexican side of the Rio Grande west of Del Rio, which has intensified over the past half hour. High-res CAM output continues to suggest that an isolated storm or two may cross the River into the Val Verde/Edwards/Kinney County vicinity this evening, consistent with the evolution of this cell. Other congested cumulus over the Mexican higher terrain has remained steady-state, with some signs of decrease recently, in conjunction with diurnal cooling. However, as ascent with the approaching southern AZ upper low continues advancing eastward, a later, more widespread increase in storms is expected across southwestern Texas. A consistent signal persists in CAM output that rather rapid, widespread convective development -- separate from the current storm -- will occur, within the 04Z to 06Z time frame. The expected, isolated nature of the current convection may permit delay in WW issuance in the short term. Potential for watch issuance will increase later this evening however, as the aforementioned UVV spreads eastward toward this region. ..Goss/Hart.. 04/12/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29470169 30110178 30450141 30570027 30459989 29949951 29359973 28920054 29470169 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Oof, that's a stout watch. Quote WWUS40 KWNS 120135 WWP2 TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 WT 0102 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 70% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES : 50% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 60% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 70% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 65 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27035 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Yikes, RAP has the effective SigTor values exploding west of San Antonio over the next few hours. Another plume of increased effective SigTor is apparent moving towards DFW. This does not mean that storms will exploit this, especially for DFW, but San Antonio might as well be playing with fire given that storms might actually exploit those SigTor values down that way. Might be a different story for DFW if that storm west of Mineral Wells holds together, but that seemed to weaken once it hit the cooler airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Updated image just came out from SPC Mesoanalysis. The rapid increase in effective SigTor values is apparent just across the Mexican border: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Storm east of Del Rio has a tor warn near Bracketville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 858 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN KINNEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... WEST CENTRAL UVALDE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 930 PM CDT. * AT 858 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BRACKETTVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BRACKETTVILLE, SPOFFORD, ANACACHO, TURKEY MOUNTAIN AND FORT CLARK SPRINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Additional convection is now going up, behind the initial supercell, from around Langtry, TX south to the Serranias del Burro. Unfortunately it is going to be difficult to clearly see any rotation on the initial supercell near Brackettville as it passes near/over the radar site. Radar imagery should get better again once the storm approaches the east end of the current warning polygon (provided that severe weather doesn't damage the radar, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The hook echo was 2 miles from the radar. I have not heard any report of a tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Storms continue to struggle to develop a well defined circulation despite pretty decent look on reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The supercell just north of Uvalde seems to have taken somewhat of a left turn, now aiming it towards the San Antonio metro area, provided that it holds together and remains on this track. The most intense part of the storm is probably about halfway between Del Rio and San Antonio now, though I would not expect the storm to impact the San Antonio area until after 12am (likely sometime after that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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