ATLTHRASHER Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 36 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There has been so many events where wildfire smoke was involved it’s hard to really come to any conclusion. The May 3 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma had widespread smoke from Mexico fires The 04/27/11 outbreak was affected by a fire in Central America as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Definitely happy that this seems to be trending away from "historic outbreak" territory. Lets hope that trend continues 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Just now, cheese007 said: Definitely happy that this seems to be trending away from "historic outbreak" territory. Lets hope that trend continues I don't think it's trending anywhere right now. Same story as yesterday. High ceiling, but potential for bust as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Definitely happy that this seems to be trending away from "historic outbreak" territory. Lets hope that trend continues I haven't noticed much difference in the parameters since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 James Spann about 2 hours ago, isn't buying that the morning precip is going to kill the threat. In house model shows a string of pearls by 7-9pm through most of AL.https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=608827136371131&id=65676345841Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Here's a Twitter post that maybe gives us a glance into the current thoughts of SPC forecasters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 SREF posted in TN Valley subforum by@jaxjagman ... If the virus wasnt going on right now i'd go towards Yazoo,Ms,but i'm not leaving the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Problem solved lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 12z HRRR continued 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 43 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said: Here's a Twitter post that maybe gives us a glance into the current thoughts of SPC forecasters. See latest post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 New Data from Baron 3k/James Spann 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Checking in from douglas county just west of Atlanta. Expecting some nasty straight lines winds tomorrow night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 These are the NAM-3km updraft helicity swaths out to 27 hours (03z Monday.) The NAM seems to like the idea of several storms in Arkansas, as opposed to MS/AL. I am not sure this is necessarily the most accurate depiction. Convection-allowing models are kind of all over the place with convection in MS. They seem to have a bit more agreement on several storms being MS/AL border near 00z, possibly extending the storms up towards Huntsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Perplexing scenario for tomorrow per 00z CAMs. Really high-end environment, yet not really many storms being convected in the models despite what feels like an obvious situation for lots of storms. Best of luck to whomever is doing the 06z Day one outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshwx2003 Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 I’m getting concerned with the lack of convection that the models showed developing across Southern Texas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Perplexing scenario for tomorrow per 00z CAMs. Really high-end environment, yet not really many storms being convected in the models despite what feels like an obvious situation for lots of storms. Best of luck to whomever is doing the 06z Day one outlook. Likely to stay mod imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, joshwx2003 said: I’m getting concerned with the lack of convection that the models showed developing across Southern Texas Every run of the HRRR since 22z has gradually been backing off. Right now, there’s very little convection at all. FWIW, the HRRR also shows gradually less convective blobbing along the warm front tomorrow morning. My guess is the tornado action could start as early as late morning on the SW/S flank of early day storms, probably in Louisiana, but possibly as far west as extreme eastern Texas. Arkansas (possibly eastern Oklahoma?) is interesting with funky wind profiles that could result in hybrid tornadic supercells. MS/W AL is still a wildcard area with many possible scenarios. Overnight tomorrow still really concerns me across a broad area from MS to GA, whether it be a broken line of supercells or a massive squall line with numerous QLCS tornadoes Overall, given the background environment, any convection near or south of the warm front needs to be watched as early as 16-17z. Even with messy storm modes, you can get strong tornadoes with so much low-level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Likely to stay mod imo. Yeah, that’s really the only option. There is very little argument to be made for a day 1 high at this point. It could change later, but I just don’t see it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 4z HRRR coming in with a much different solution than previous runs. Lack of convection/del rio supercell that died out has a huge impact on how the convective complex plays out tonight per 4z hrrr. Warm sector is much farther north this run of the hrrr tomorrow afternoon which can be a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 here's what i mean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, Bob's Burgers said: here's what i mean Ummm... all I can say is yikes. Image speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Well I think we found the ceiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Notice how much cleaner UH is on this run as well --> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 04 HRRR would be the start of a new trend, it's pretty different from even 03z. If 05,06,07,ect continue this, that's a bad look for north central MS/AL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, StormySquares said: 04 HRRR would be the start of a new trend, it's pretty different from even 03z. If 05,06,07,ect continue this, that's a bad look for north central MS/AL It's worth looking into. 0z 5 hour radar forecast vs reality was a major bust already. Latest HRRR is taking in current radar data and adjusting. We'll see how it plays out. Obs game from here really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, Bob's Burgers said: It's worth looking into. 0z 5 hour radar forecast vs reality was a major bust already. Latest HRRR is taking in current radar data and adjusting. We'll see how it plays out. Obs game from here really. Yeah HRRR was dreadful predicting Del Rio area storms tonight. That in house model posted above actually did a pretty good job depicting those TX storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Here's what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 What’s crazy about that run of the HRRR is, is that as bad as it looks, it’s likely not the ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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