jojo762 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, SmokeEater said: Severe warning for the discrete cell NW of Jackson, let's see where we go from here. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Interested to see if it starts to turn right sometime soon’ish... otherwise it seems that it would crash into the blob of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Multiple homes destroyed 7 SE of Stonewall, LA. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Given the incredible degree of 0-1km SRH, I’m surprised we aren’t seeing more “bird wing” looking mini cells as is typical with days like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 SPC really needed a narrow high risk area from Monroe- Chattanooga. You can see the HRRR and NAM3km shows a semidiscrete line training over that area for the next 8-10 hrs!!!!! \ Likely to be a parade of tornadic cells along that line, while they remain scattered everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC035-MSC055-125-121815- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200412T1815Z/ EAST CARROLL LA-ISSAQUENA MS-SHARKEY MS- 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR EAST CARROLL PARISH...ISSAQUENA AND SHARKEY COUNTIES... AT 1241 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TRANSYLVANIA, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Those cells down by the Gulf Coast, currently moving over Lafayette, LA, also have my attention right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Amped said: SPC really needed a narrow high risk area from Monroe- Chattanooga. You can see the HRRR and NAM3km shows a semidiscrete line training over that area for the next 8-10 hrs!!!!! \ Likely to be a parade of tornadic cells along that line, while they remain scattered everywhere else. I saw something on Twitter that the SPC may be considering a High Risk. Not sure how good the source is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Given the incredible degree of 0-1km SRH, I’m surprised we aren’t seeing more “bird wing” looking mini cells as is typical with days like this. Last check, low-level lapse rates and 0-3km instability are still fairly marginal. I think the most intense discrete action won’t be until 21-00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Yikes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Multiple planes and hangers damaged at Monroe Regional Airport. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 I saw something on Twitter that the SPC may be considering a High Risk. Not sure how good the source is though.I'm glued to NWS chat all day, nothing as of yet. But I agree, I would have went high, but it's a moot point now, the only ones who care are people like us tracking it, lol. The seriousness of this event has been well conveyed by multiple WFO's and news media. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Heightened potential noted here for the folks in Georgia. Cameron had some excellent analysis prior to the early March Nashville tornado. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 26 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: somewhat discrete cells forming from those one mentioned before near JAN SSW to the gulf coast may be a convergent line where SSE wind meet SSW this MAY be what models where picking up yesterday and the question was will it crapvection or not MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA/MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 121802Z - 122000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES, MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DOES RESIDE OVER THIS AREA PER RECENT VWP ESTIMATES FROM KLIX. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN LA, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVING WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. RESULTANT MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR IF ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED. A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 300-350 M2/S2. AT THIS POINT, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND THE PRESENCE OF A MODEST LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Nice TDS out of Gary/Rolling Fork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Nice TDS out of Gary/Rolling ForkCrazy, rotation looks like crap, hit CC and there's a big TDS. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Numerous thunderstorms firing in the Acadiana region of Louisiana, with a couple severe warned cells over Lafayette that need to be watched with the perfect environment in front of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 29 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I saw something on Twitter that the SPC may be considering a High Risk. Not sure how good the source is though. Yes, I have also seen that text considering an upgrade. After the confection clears and the warm front moves through, I guess they want to see how quickly the area. Here is their wording: SPC: THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION OUTPACING STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY (ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHEAST EXTENT), AS WELL AS THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE MODE, TO PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The more dangerous portion of the QLCS will pass relatively close to Yazoo City. The hail-producing storm over Carthage is beginning to show an aloft circulation on the Columbus radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 don forget about the areas more west clearing out nicely ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 121810Z - 121945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF A MORNING MCS. MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 750 TO 1250 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE STORM COVERAGE QUICKLY EXPANDS IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STORM INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT MUTED DUE TO AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION, BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MAY BE THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW STORMS, BUT THE FAST SPEED MAY CUT OFF UPDRAFTS FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS BEFORE THEY CAN BECOME BETTER ROOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, THE BETTER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WITH STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS HAVE STARTED TO FORM IN THIS AREA AND SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CINH IS MOSTLY ERODED INDICATING STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IMMINENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL TURNING IN THE TLX VWP, BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK (LESS THAN 20 KTS) WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE THAN A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35-40 KNOTS AFTER 22Z IN SOUTHEAST OK/NE TX WHICH MAY LEAD TO A GREATER TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING IN THAT REGION. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED, BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF STORM INTENSITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH, ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Dual couplets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Dual coupletsNuts! This day is turning crazy, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 yazoo city fixin' to get hit again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob's Burgers said: yazoo city fixin' to get hit again What is it about Yazoo City MS and Moore OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Tornado confirmed over Yazoo City. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Several snapped power poles NW of Yazoo. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: That actually isn't a debris signature here. It is over clear air and any CC drop not correlated with a circulation and dbz<40, so that specifically isn't debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 new watch S LA into S RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR ALL HAZARDS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Violent tornado parameters are off the charts in SW Mississippi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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