Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 New tornado on the ground near Heflin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Big CC drop over Heflin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 That line east of Shreveport may be encountering storm relative helicity of up to 700m^2/s^2 per SPC Mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, mob1 said: Big CC drop over Heflin Not surprising... most of that small “town” is on the northern side of the dot on radarscope, and that’s exactly where the circulation went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Tornado watch coming for C MS, mentioning strong tornadoes likely. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS...AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 121524Z - 121700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG TORNADOES, NUMEROUS DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ALL LIKELY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND NORTHEASTERN LA SHORTLY. DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LA INTO CENTRAL MS DOWNSTREAM OF A QLCS IN NORTHERN LA IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING. A WARM ADVECTION WING OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THIS AREA AS A MARINE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE OCCURS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING, MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. VERY STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT FROM LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT ROBUST STORM ORGANIZATION BOTH WITH THE ONGOING QLCS AND WITH ANY CELLS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE OPEN WARM SECTOR. LATEST VWP FROM KDGX (JACKSON, MS) SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE, WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 50 KT, AND 0-1 SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2. STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, ALONG WITH NUMEROUS DAMAGING WINDS IF THE STORM MODE REMAINS MOSTLY LINEAR. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANY STORMS CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH/EAST OF THE ONGOING QLCS, THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 I bet SPC is pondering an upgrade to high. 14Z HRRR shows an increase in the number of significant UH tracks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: I bet SPC is pondering an upgrade to high. 14Z HRRR shows an increase in the number of significant UH tracks. Though, the HRRR solution is showing a lot of this activity (aside from the huge UH tracks with the QLCS) along the tail end of the line. So far, this region as been fairly inactive. Edit: after another look, I'm having trouble interpreting what the model is showing. At one glance, I can convince myself that it shows widespread supercell coverage. At another glance, I can convince myself that it's just showing a QLCS mess. Either way, it seems every probable that numerous QLCS tornadoes will happen today given this morning's trend, and that some of them might be strong. That alone, along with the more uncertain warm sector, might be enough to warrant an upgrade to HIGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Could be cycling in LA, Arcadia a much larger town looks to be inline if it does..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 looks like another small TDS just north of ashland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 New watch coming out will be PDS. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 I think it's time to go High Risk today. The fact that a large tornado just occurred within a QLCS during the morning before diurnal heating and the deepening of the low has occurred is really something. Growing up in the Great Lakes region so many classic outbreaks and strong tornadoes I have chased featured solid instability, great dews around 70° and SRH's of 250-350. Today's numbers, especially in SRH are blowing this out of the water. To see such stark numbers suggest any strong updraft may rotate, and violently at that at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: I bet SPC is pondering an upgrade to high. 14Z HRRR shows an increase in the number of significant UH tracks. moderate or high I don't think really maters at this point. it's probably more a worry now of PDS tornado Watches and normal Tornado Watches than anything else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, Jim Marusak said: moderate or high I don't think really maters at this point. it's probably more a worry now of PDS tornado Watches and normal Tornado Watches than anything else. Obviously SPC outlooks have no impact on what will actually happen, but it's fun to speculate on what the SPC forecasters will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...INTENSE BOWING LINE WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERAL TORNADOES IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SEMI-DISCRETE SUPRECELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STRONG IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, janetjanet998 said: RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...INTENSE BOWING LINE WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERAL TORNADOES IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SEMI-DISCRETE SUPRECELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STRONG IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. That was really quick from MD to actual watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 90/80 probs on that PDS Tornado Watch. Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Any chance this line breaks up into cells like the April 15th 2011 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Debris sig just west of Arcadia. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1047 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC013-027-061-121600- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200412T1600Z/ CLAIBORNE LA-BIENVILLE LA-LINCOLN LA- 1047 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE...NORTH CENTRAL BIENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN PARISHES... AT 1046 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ARCADIA, OR 13 MILES WEST OF GRAMBLING, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Says a lot, there's barely any rotation showing up and you've got a confirmed tornado with a debris sig. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Starting to get some svr action on the WAA wing in MS already as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Says a lot, there's barely any rotation showing up and you've got a confirmed tornado with a debris sig. Sent from my SM-G973U using TapatalkWhy wouldn't rotation be displayed when there's a TDS? Genuinely ignorant on this, thanks for any info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Why wouldn't rotation be displayed when there's a TDS? Genuinely ignorant on this, thanks for any info!Meaning the rotation isn't strong at all, and it has a confirmed tornado producing a TDS. Just saying it's not taking much at all with the dynamics at play today. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1056 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... SOUTH CENTRAL CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTHEASTERN BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... CENTRAL LINCOLN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 1130 AM CDT. * AT 1055 AM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARCADIA, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAMBLING, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Rotation increasing just SW of Quitman. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 15 UTC HRRR is breaking out a line of supercells ahead of the QLCS in the volatile part of the warm sector.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Tornado after tornado after tornado with the morning QLCS across Louisiana... don’t recall many (Any?) people addressing this potential over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Meaning the rotation isn't strong at all, and it has a confirmed tornado producing a TDS. Just saying it's not taking much at all with the dynamics at play today. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Gotcha. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: Meaning the rotation isn't strong at all, and it has a confirmed tornado producing a TDS. Just saying it's not taking much at all with the dynamics at play today. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk LCL's are so low (500-750) across most of risk area today. It is going to take nothing to drop a tornado considering parcels are condensing already within 2000 feet 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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