TellicoWx Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Def agree with Quincy, guidance is converging more in those areas...may finally be nearing an agreement. Only area with a bigger question mark is the southern valley of TN/NW GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Getting very worried about a significant nocturnal damaging wind/QLCS tornado threat in the Atlanta area- this is the NAM-nest sounding which shows some pretty eye-popping numbers like storm motion 68 kts?!?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 12z UH NSSL, ARW, 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1st of the day KETK NEWS @KETK · 2m A tornado has been CONFIRMED to be on the ground southeast of Marshall and heading towards Waskom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 937 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC031-121500- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200412T1500Z/ DE SOTO LA- 937 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH... AT 937 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOGANSPORT, OR 12 MILES WEST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Looks like an intense tornado too given the velocity couplet. Also appears to be a debris signature on CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 both warnings radar confirmed EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 946 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC031-121500- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200412T1500Z/ DE SOTO LA- 946 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH... AT 945 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF STONEWALL, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 CC drop and spike in reflectivity https://twitter.com/WxJason/status/1249349200464183296/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 951 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTH CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEASTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... WEST CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 1015 AM CDT. * AT 951 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STONEWALL, OR 12 MILES NORTH OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 WOW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 OK, so it seems like intense QLCS tornadoes are on the table today... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Here is a forecast sounding from the RAP that is probably representative of what the QLCS is ingesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaTwo Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Move along, nothing to see here in Northern Mississippi later this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 That radar signature is suggestive of at least an EF-3. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, TampaTwo said: Move along, nothing to see here in Northern Mississippi later this afternoon... If that environment happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said: That radar signature is suggestive of at least an EF-3. Yikes. Seems like this was a fairly "hefty" QLCS tornado.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 looks like it weakened.... it was interesting to note how that storm and to lesser extent the one north sharpened up on reflectivity just before TOR warned ...it went from fuzzy looking to sharp on the backside , by sharp i mean the DBZ went from 50 to 10ish near the same pixels rather then a blob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said: That radar signature is suggestive of at least an EF-3. Yikes. Not necessarily. The TDS doesn’t look very tall since it’s not even visible from the fort Polk radar at 7k feet. It could be EF3+ but sometimes radar signatures are deceiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 new circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Here’s a closer look of that image, but note that QLCS tornadoes are likely west and northwest of this highlighted area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 70+ knots of Vrot on the first stout QLCS tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Here is a forecast sounding from the RAP that is probably representative of what the QLCS is ingesting. 5.1 C/km 0-3km lapse rate... jives with mesoanalysis. A good example of why you don’t necessarily need steep low-level lapse rates when you have low LCLs and substantial low-level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 That previous intense line in nw Louisiana seems to be breaking up into more discrete cells due to the insane helicity it is encountering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Quincy said: 5.1 C/km 0-3km lapse rate... jives with mesoanalysis. A good example of why you don’t necessarily need steep low-level lapse rates when you have low LCLs and substantial low-level shear. It's also worthy of note that the sounding is nearly moist neutral below 2.5 km, so it's likely that also helped things. Parcels in moist neutral environments should have no resistance to ascent, and do not experience deleterious effects from entrainment. Could be a totally different story for a sub-saturated environment with a similar low-level lapse rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Given the environment today, ANYTHING that becomes surface-based is *probably* going to rotate and *probably* produce tornadoes. It’s just what happens when moderate CAPE overlaps with ESRH on the order of 500m^2/s^2... Now the big question is, will we get discrete convection or just clustery stuff like this with embedded intense circulations + lots of WAA junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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